Name: Why Nepal's elections matter to India and China | DW News
Uploaded: 2026-03-04T17:25:45.000Z
Duration: 11 min 53 s
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They're holding an election here in Nepal.

Adverbs of degree

It's just six months after youth led protests toppled.

The last government alert seems important.

The focus of campaigns like this one may well be domestic, but

Nepal's two massive neighbors, India and China, will be watching closely for India's hegemony.

I think for Beijing, this relationship continues to serve a very important aspect.

The best the neighbors can do is keep your hands off.

This is Nepal sandwiched between India to the south and China to the north.

So why does this election matter so much to the two Asian giants?

Why is Nepal caught between the elephant and the dragon?

Nepal's border with India stretches for more than 1500km.

This is one of the many crossings on this open border between India and Nepal.

People from both countries can just walk across, no passports needed, and

many do to shop for better prices on the other side.

Such free movement is not at all common in this part of the world.

India has never had a serious rupture with Nepal.

Unlike other neighbors like Pakistan, Bangladesh and China, India share the same civilization.

The Nepalese are vastly predominantly a Hindu country.

We share language commonalities, we share food commonalities.

And in a sense, I mean, isn't Nepal part of South Asia?

Its position as a buffer between India and China makes Nepal strategically important to India.

It, in turn, is Nepal's largest trade partner and a source of essential goods to the landlocked country.

Mrs. Sushma Swaraj was our external affairs minister.

And she would always tell me that, use the expression elder brother, which is a kind of expression from our part of the world which says that, yes, I'm older, I'm bigger, but, you know, I'm caring.

And it's not like the big brother from the Western world.

But within Nepal, that attitude is not always popular.

Also, Nepal is, in so many ways under New Delhi's thumb.

Our politicians are compromised, our bureaucracy is compromised.

There's a kind of a manufacturing of consent going on.

Things came to a head in 2015 with Indian disapproval of Nepalese constitutional reforms.

India imposed an unofficial trade blockade.

This was just a few months after the devastating earthquake of 2015, when Nepal was still struggling to cope.

It shut Nepal down for lack of fuel and lack of other items, because Nepal is, in that sense, economically landlocked.

That is when the Nepali political class got the guts to reach out to China.

The decision maker was then Prime Minister K.P. oli.

He's standing this time too, but we'll be coming back to that.

He made multiple agreements with China soon after that blockade.

But this was not the beginning of China's interest in Nepal.

Nepal's border with Tibet runs for about 1,400 km, which has long put it on China's radar.

The one prerequisite for Chinese relationship with Kathmandu was do not allow any activism by Tibetan nationalists using Nepali soil and Nepal.

Kathmandu Valley can never say no to that request from the Chinese, given the overwhelming power of the northern neighbor.

Nepal's north does have historic cultural and economic ties to Tibet.

But in the last decade, Chinese investment in the country's infrastructure has taken off, as has political engagement.

It was only until the last decade that we really start to see Chinese officials and Chinese diplomats become more active in engaging with domestic actors across the political landscape in Nepal.

And I think that is why New Delhi has become more concerned and alarmed.

Analysts believe China has played a role in brokering coalitions between Nepal's various communist parties to form governments, including one that signed an initial agreement to be part of China's Belt and road initiative in 2017.

Oli made that agreement official in 2024.

Given the economic rise and the technological rise of China, Nepal should be open to the north.

But that is seen practically as a tilt towards China by New Delhi and New Delhi analysts.

And that is very unfair on a neighbor like Nepal because it keeps Nepal from the agency of doing what is right for its own people.

But these investments have also faced controversy within Nepal.

The $200 million China funded Pokhara Airport has been mired.

Corruption scandals in which both Nepali and Chinese officials have been charged.

I think that is probably also one of the many reasons why the younger generation in Nepal were slightly more suspicious about Chinese investment.

The influence of these Chinese investment in cultivating corruptions in the domestic politics in Nepal.

And I think that has also dampened China's image among the younger generation in Nepal.

Which brings us to where Nepal is right now.

The ballot at this election is offering new youth leadership and the old guard.

But is this also a choice between India and China?

Since its founding, Nepal has said it does not pick sides, that it is strategically neutral.

Nepal is a country that is probably one of the most non aligned in the world and it should be allowed to remain non aligned.

But different Nepali governments have been accused of biases before the protests in September 2025 forced him to resign.

Prime Minister Ali's toppling was a major setback for China's efforts to deepen its inroads into Nepal because it really lost a major partner that is more clearly prioritizing engagement with Beijing than some of his predecessors.

Obviously, whenever we have had an Oli administration in power, his actions have not always been in favor of India.

When the protest happened and the fact that India welcomed the protest and you know, it was very prompt in engaging with the interim pm.

this is part of his campaign, he promises to turn this site into a nearly $600 million industrial park funded by China.

And that's worrying New Delhi because oli's electoral base here in Japa sits right on the border with India.

Oli's opponent, Palendra Shah is a 35 year old rapper turned politician who is widely seen as one of the faces of the Gen Z revolution.

He joined a party that's just four years old.

They dropped the industrial park from their election campaign.

Balindra Shah, who is also announced prime ministerial candidate in the upcoming elections and his party, it shows very poorly on them.

To take it out of your manifesto and your agenda means that a new party which is saying we're independent, we're going to be doers.

But to run scared on a geopolitical matter doesn't seem very wise.

Youth leaders may intend to distance themselves from Chinese investment after corruption scandals, but

Beijing is used to playing the long game.

I think it is currently adopting a wait and see, sort of like strategy to kind of like see how whether these youth leaders would actually stick to the same playbook once they took office or become more practical and recalibrate their position once they actually win the election.

But as the deposing of the last government showed, young people here have become political actors even if they're still unknown to Indian policymakers.

I think there should be more concerted efforts from the Indian side as well to kind of, you know, further develop this relationship and maybe engage more with the youth in that respect.

I mean there is, we all know that the number of people, young people migrating from Nepal to other countries has increased exponentially in the last 10 years.

And much of that migration is not directed towards India.

It's a need China feels it is already well placed to meet.

A lot of it is about youth unemployment actually.

So if you compare India and China at the end of the day, I believe that Beijing thinks that it still has a lot more leverage in terms of offering job opportunities that can easily incentivize any new leader coming into office in Nepal to actually recalibrate their position.

After 14 governments in 18 years and a youth led rupture in 2025, everyone wants Nepal to be more stable.

A new government is unlikely to choose between India and China.