Name: 'Highest ever': Enten on TX primaries' massive political shifts
Uploaded: 2026-03-04T16:33:57.000Z
Duration: 8 min 49 s
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Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett conceded to James Talarico in the Democratic Senate primary there.

Notable because it was a hotly contested race and there were some questions about voting there.

But she is now conceded, meaning he has a clear path all the way to November.

Not so clear on the Republican side where there is a runoff between Attorney General Ken Paxton and the incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn.

So we'll see over the next three months who wins there.

With us now, CNN Chief data analyst Harrietten.

That might not be the most important thing here.

The most important thing here might be who's voting, who is voting.

And I would say the word to describe it for Democrats.

The highest ever, the highest ever was this primary.

And that's only with 92% of the estimated voting that will climb ever higher.

The 2000's average was less than a million.

They've more than doubled the average turnout for Texas Senate Democratic primaries.

This beats the old record which was 2.2 million.

And that was in a presidential primary year between Obama and Clinton.

As I said, the word to describe this is tremendous.

I can't even believe it be 2008 people, if you can remember back that far.

That was such an important race in Texas.

There's so much focus and there were still more people voting in this one than that one in 2008.

How about as a share of the people who voted overall, it's not just that this 2.3 million is such a large portion, the largest ever for a Texas Senate Democratic primary.

It's that more people voted in the Democratic primary than, than the Republican primary.

If you look at the 2000s on average, you see this.

More people choose the Republican ballot than the Democratic ballot in midterm primaries by 60% to 40%, a margin of 3 to 2.

But look so far Democrats, more people are actually choosing the Democratic ballot.

This is extremely, extremely unusual, 51% to 49%.

And so far there have actually been more of the Republican ballots estimated to be counted than Democrats.

And I will note that this was the last, this is the first time, the first time Democrats outvoted Republicans in a midterm primary season in Texas since 2002.

So a lot of Democrats voting and more Democrats voting than Republicans.

And you said that has potential national implications because when something like this happens, it usually means the party that benefits every single midterm since 2006, the party that votes more in primaries win goes on to win the House of Representatives.

And right now in Texas, a traditionally red state, more Democrats voting.

You transition that nationally, it's very likely that more Democrats be voting than Republicans in primary.

All right, let's talk about the Republican runoff between the incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Ken Paxton.

They are headed to a runoff three months from now.

But what are the prediction markets saying?

Yeah, okay, you know, the two of them are going to a runoff.

Paxton, Cornyn, what are the prediction markets say cashier prediction market in terms of who is going to actually win that runoff.

I mean, this is as close as you basically can get.54% chance for Ken Paxton, despite at this point having fewer votes in the initial round than John Corny, incumbent, a 44% chance.

But really this is as close as it can be.

It's going to be a knockout drag out fight over the next few months that ultimately may come down to one man.

Donald John Trump, who he gets behind, that can make the difference.

But at this point, I mean, these two are going to be going together like old boxers.

And it could very much help the Democrats chance in the fall if in fact there's some really bad blood left.

If it helps the Democratic chances, what does that do to the overall odds in the U. S.

This is just a segment which is just great news for Democrats.

I mean, the, this is, I think the biggest change that we have seen in the national picture, which was all along we thought that the Democrats would win back the House of Representatives.

But at this point, look at this, look at the change in odds from a year ago.

Republicans had an 81% chance a year ago.

Democrats chances way up to a 44% chance.

Republicans have not just for the House, which are likely to lose, but for the Senate as well.

That is a big change, Harry, and great to have you back and you're tremendous.

There will be a runoff between Republican incumbent Senator John Cornyn and the state's attorney general Ken Paxton.

They both failed to get 50% of the vote in the Senate primary.

So this sets up what could be a bruising battle over the next three months.

I refuse to to allow a flawed, self centered and shameless candidate like Ken Paxton risk everything we've worked so hard to build over these many years.

John Cornyn has failed us time and time again in his over 40 years of office.

You cannot name one single accomplishment that he's done to help the state of Texas.

And the winner will face state lawmaker James Talarico, who won the Democratic primary overnight, defeating Congresswoman Jasmine Croggett.

Control of the Senate could be at stake here.

Let's get right to CNN's our Let signs after a long night in Dallas.