Name: JPMorgan's Dimon on Iran War, Inflation, Credit Cycles
Uploaded: 2026-03-03T21:34:34.000Z
Duration: 14 min 52 s
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I am here with somebody who does not need an introduction, Jamie Dimon, who is the CEO and chairman of JP Morgan.

To-infinitive

It's a really interesting day to have this.

But the focus, at least in the news world, is very much in the geopolitics.

And I'm wondering from your perspective, you talked about geopolitics for a long time.

Are you surprised that the market has been so sanguine to any kind of response or any kind of geopolitical disruption?

So one of our brilliant folks wrote a report years ago, Mike Semblance, that you look at all these wars around the world Since World War II, the market reacts, but

it never had a real long term effect other than the Israeli conflict.

Oil prices tripled and went on for an extended period of time in 1973.

It's much more complex today than it has been since World War II.

I'm talking about Ukraine, Russia, Iran, North Korea are related with China and that could have an effect, but

You know, this war with Iran, you know, if it is short and oil goes to 80 or 90 or 100, but

it's a short time, not prolonged, it probably won't have a major effect if it becomes prolonged and all bets are off the table.

Well, how offside would this market be if there were truly a stagflationary shock, given the fact that there seems to be comfort with the idea of disinflation right now?

Well, I think that's true, but I think that was true before this war.

So if you look at, you know, my view is the price, asset price kind of high, credit pressure kind of low, it's kind of a lot of complacency in the market.

You know, we look at risk, we look at the broad range of outcomes and there are negative outcomes, but

one of them would be, you know, inflation.

it seems to maybe have leveled off around 3% if things make it go up.

And this is only one thing, you know, you can look at medical prices, construction prices, insurance prices, wages for certain things, other things, you know, inflation is a big thing.

Right now this will add a little bit, literally a teeny bit to inflation, a lot.

You know, I was surprised because things were kind of gloomy coming into today.

And the mood here is not that actually there's a lot of optimism.

There are a lot of different companies that are building things and investing things.

I mean, how vulnerable really is the US Economy right now to some sort of geopolitical shock?

It may be the companies that start to lay people off.

Look, the most important thing in the world is geopolitical.

What happens to the free western democratic world which has kind of been under attack by Russia and Ukraine, by Iran and the Middle east, you know, a little bit by China, wants to, to divide and conquer the Western world.

And you know, both militarily and economically, you know, you have all their neighbors are rearming because of their actions, not because anyone else.

So those are the most important things I'd add.

But those are, those are like I call like large moving tectonic plates that may or may not affect the economy in the short run.

They may be determinative in the longer run.

And some of these things we talk about war, you know, Vietnam, you know, did it affect the economy in the very short run?

So you got to look at these things as they're moving plates that can take five years to have an effect, but

effectively real right now the economy is doing fine, asset prices are high, people are assuming things go on.

The credit spreads can gap out a lot and they could just because of sentiment.

And so, so yeah, I think there's a little bit of, a little more exuberance than I think there should be.

And you know, the one big beautiful bill adds to, you know, as to growth this year, bank deregulation, other deregulation to growth and animal spirits.

But, but you pointed out, I think, you know, the skunk would be inflation.

So we've got to be keep our eye on that one closer.

this actually speaks to something that people are wondering, which is what's going to potentially crash the party before we get into credit more significantly.

I know that JP Morgan has been expanding significantly in the Middle east, particularly in Riyadh and Dubai.

If you take a longer term view, does any of what we're seeing now have the potential to shape that effort, to expand either in the positive direction or potentially to withdraw in the effort?

I think the way I look at it creates more risk.

It Creates more chance of a positive outcome.

So all those nations been modernizing, educating their people, you know, adopting more and more Western methods, want to open up their markets, bring in foreign direct investment, invest overseas.

Tom Friedman wrote about this in his paper today, that this creates a, a bigger opportunity for long and just peace in the Middle East.

And writ large, not just Iran in this war, but

you know, that Saudi Arabia, uae, some path to statehood for the Palestinians in Gaza and Palestinian, that's going to be up to, you know, them.

You know, there are, there are reasons to be optimistic.

This opens the door for that, you know, and there are a lot of naysayers.

I understand that if these go south, they're going to say I told you so.

So hopefully we're wise enough to help move in that direction.

And if you watch closely going on in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, uae, Qatar, Kuwait, they all want peace and they all know that like really growing and having great economies rely on that.

You want to get more foreign direct investment, you need peace.

Things like war reduce the chance of people don't want to put real investment in the ground.

then they even set up a shadow government for the Palestinian Authority with Palestinians, but

professionals, lawyers, doctors, business people to create maybe a governing structure that can actually uncorruptly govern Palestinians and create, you know, peace on the ground there and you know, have Israel and Palestine working a long term course, but

of course to, you know, peace side by side with statehood.

I mean, look on that one, I want to be optimistic, even though it's been terrible now for a long time.

You were talking about credit and I do want to return to it.

And what could potentially cause the credit cycle to crack even if we don't know the catalyst.

Do you have a sense of what this credit cycle is going to look like?

If it's going to be akin to something that we've seen in the past or if it's going to have a new kind of dynamic?

So some things rhyme and some things never change.

The type of recession determines the nature of it.

So stagflation is very different than just a recession.

Obviously the depth of the recession and a credit cycle is a normal cycle.

One of the things that's always different is which industries get really badly hurt.

Like you may remember in 00, 2000 it was telecom and utilities, you know, the MA stocks they pay dividends in 08 is Warren Buffett stocks, media stocks.

You know, this time it may be a software, maybe it's not, but

something's moving that changes type of credit.