Name: What are the chances these talks will be successful? | DW News
Uploaded: 2026-02-17T17:09:06.000Z
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Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has issued a defiant message to the United States saying Washington will not succeed in overthrowing the Islamic Republic.

The two sides have held a second round of indirect talks in Geneva on Iran's nuclear program.

Basic passive voice

The Iranian delegation is led by the Foreign Minister, Abbas Arakchi.

US Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are leading the US Team.

President Donald Trump has said regime change would be the best thing for Iran.

The US has sent a naval task force to the region, but

Trump says he hopes to avoid further military action and that he will also take part in these negotiations.

So I'll be involved in those talks indirectly, and

they'll be very important, and we'll see what can happen.

But typically, Iran's a very tough negotiator.

I would say they're bad negotiators because we could have had a deal.

Instead of sending the B2s in to knock out their nuclear potential.

I hope they're going to be more reasonable.

They're told that a deal is next to impossible.

I don't think they want the consequences of not making a deal.

Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has stepped up his warnings to the US over its military buildup in the Middle East.

The US President keeps saying our military is the strongest military in the world.

But the world's most powerful military can sometimes receive such a slap that it can no longer stay on its feet.

They keep saying we have sent warships towards Iran.

Of course, a warship is a dangerous device, but

more dangerous than that is a weapon that can send a warship deep under the sea.

For more, we can speak to Ali Fatullah Najad.

He is a director at the Centre for Middle east and Global Order and an Iran expert.

What do you make of these very clear statements from Iran's Supreme Leader?

He does seem very confident that the US Cannot overthrow the Islamic Republic.

From the Iranian part, this is quite business as usual.

Whenever there is, you know, such a tense situation as we have currently.

The Iranians, you know, do issue counter threats, for instance, by saying that they're going to target all US Military bases in the region all the way to closing down the Strait of Four minutes.

In these negotiations and what kind of compromises might they be prepared to accept to reach a deal?

Well, that's a very good question because we do not know about all details to give a.

What we do know is that the Islam Republic, because of its, you know, domestic and international standing, is seeking to reach a deal with the United States in order to decrease the pressures upon it.

And it wants to see, as a result of negotiations, sanctions lifted.

And the second most important aim of the Iranian side is to keep the talks focused on, on the nuclear issue only and thereby not to talk and to negotiate about its ballistic missile program and also about its role in the region.

You mentioned that the pressures on it domestically, after the mass protests against the regime last month and the brutal crackdown that followed, what do the Iranian people think?

Do people inside the country want the US to make a deal with the Islamic Republic?

That's precisely the other side of the coin.

So what we have to pay attention to is not only to the U. S.

Iran conflict, the conflict pitting the United States of America against the Islamic Republic of Iran about which we just talked about, but

the second most important, equally important, if not more important, is how Iranian society views diplomacy and those negotiations.

And I think it's fair to assess that there is a clear majority in Iran who do not want to see any kind of dirty deal that would cement the reign of the Islamic Republic of the regime in Iran to the detriment of Iranian people.

So, you know, there could be a deal that would end up actually cementing regime stability and security, for instance, via sanctions relief that the rulers in Tehran, as they did in the past, would primarily use for their own purposes of regime stability and the projection of regime strength in the region.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has been conducting exercises in the Strait of Hormuz.

And as you mentioned earlier, earlier, Tehran is saying the strait will be partially closed during the maneuvers.

Just give us your interpretation of that.

Well, this is a long standing threat from the Iranian side.

The Iranians have never ended up actually doing that.

That is closing down the Strait of Hormuz, for instance, by mining it or similar measures, because they know fully well that the American side would understand such a cutting off as a declaration of war.

And we've seen warnings from US centcom, that is the US Military in the Middle east, making very clear that this would not be acceptable to the United States if the Iranians did do that.

And also it would alienate the Arab states of the Persian Gulf.

And last but not least, it would also complicate Iranian energy exports.

So there are a whole range of different risks associated with actually implementing this Iranian threat.

Ali Fatullah Nejad with the center for Middle east and Global Order.

All right, let's talk about this with Kamran Matin is Associate professor of International Relations at the University of Sussex in the UK welcome to dw.

First of all, what are the chances of success at these talks, would you say?

Well, we don't know behind the scenes what sort of talks they had in Oman a few weeks ago, but

based on what they have expressed publicly, the positions of Iran and US Remain really far apart.

And I just don't see how without a radical sort of concession from one side, they can reach a deal.

US has demanded a halt, a complete halt to enrichment on Iranian soil, something Iran has always rejected.

Apparently, they are ready to dilute their highly enriched uranium.

They might even agree to some sort of suspension of enrichment or enriching at a lower kind of level.

But completely stopping enrichment is something which Iran would consider as a national defeat.

On top of that, we have had in the past, at least, US Demand for limitation to Iran's missile arsenal, stopping sponsoring proxy forces in the region.

And Iran has flatly rejected any discussion beyond the nuclear file.

So on that basis, it's very difficult to see how they can reach an agreement.

A second aircraft carrier is being sent to the region, and that takes another week or so.

So I doubt even if they fail today, there will be immediately a conflict.

But we hear from Iran the idea of actually also offering incentive, economic incentive to us, such as involving US Companies in Iran's oil and gas industry, so that Trump is kind of appeased, so to speak, to benefit from a deal economically as well as politically.

We just heard the US President essentially saying they really want to make a deal because they don't want to deal.

But what would you say really realistically are the consequences of failure?

You just said there probably won't be an immediate conflict, but realistically, what might then happen, actually

the consequences is one of the things which sheds doubt on US Attack, because while US can deliver massive blows to Iran militarily, Trump is unlikely to deploy ground forces, and

Islamic Republic is confident it can survive air attacks.

And in addition to that, it's not clear what happens exactly if somehow US Is willing and able to overthrow Iranian government in terms of an alternative replacement.

And those are the kind of issues which I think has been behind the scenes pushing Trump towards pursuing the diplomatic line.

But given what he has said in the past and how much he gives importance to prestige and how it's seen in the international stage, I think one cannot rule out possibility of a sustained aerial attack, even if it doesn't necessarily lead to either Iranian regime's overthrow or getting the kind of concessions Trump wants from Iran.

Cameron Matton from the University of Sussex, thank you so much for your time.