Name: Why The Gold Stock Rally Isn’t Over Yet
Uploaded: 2026-01-21T02:52:12.000Z
Duration: 4 min 5 s
Description: Thousands of YouTube videos with English-Chinese subtitles! Now you can learn to understand native speakers, expand your vocabulary, and improve your pronunciation...

Today on FORBES why the Gold Stock Rally Isn't Over Yet Gold had a big year.

The yellow metal surged from $2,600 per ounce to start the year to over $4,300 by the end of it, for a 65% return.

The Vaneck Gold Miners ETF $29 billion in assets rose by 155%.

After moves like that, a reasonable question comes up.

Oliver runs the Myrmican Gold Fund, which launched in 2010 and as of a 2023 filing managed about $30 million in assets.

Now Oliver, it should be noted, is a committed gold advocate, not a neutral observer.

But in a research note published last week, he argues that the gold trade is still early.

More importantly, he says, the usual problem for gold miners rising costs that crush margins aren't a foregone conclusion.

Gold didn't lead markets during the bubble years.

In 2024, speculative trades dominated returns.

Gold rose too, but it lagged riskier assets.

Speculative so called quote risk on assets cooled or retraced their prior moves.

Gold, on the other hand, moved to the front.

Oliver says that shift matters because gold tends to perform best when credit is tightening, evidenced by the decline in speculative assets not expanding in those periods.

Gold prices often rise faster than most other commodities, Oliver says.

That's how this gold cycle is playing out, at least so far.

The Federal Reserve is cutting short term rates, but

the yield on 30 year treasury bonds is is now 50 basis points higher than it was in September 2024.

That's when the Fed kicked off its latest round of easing monetary policy.

That combination points to potentially weaker credit growth than what you'd typically expect.

And without a boom, industrial commodity prices tend to lag gold rather than race ahead of it, according to Oliver.

During the 1970s, gold prices rose 1,400%, far faster than most industrial commodities.

Copper, for example, gained just 45% that decade.

Oliver thinks those dynamics are returning.

He expects oil prices to stay contained as US Supply expands and long term demand growth weakens.

Energy, as you'd expect, is one of the largest mining inputs.

Slower energy inflation helps protect margins.

He also argues that most industrial commodities will struggle to keep up with gold in a slow growth environment.

Gold miners, he says, are not facing the usual cost squeeze.

If gold continues to rise faster than inputs, margins should widen, not compress.

Gold mining stocks had a spectacular 2025.

Oliver doesn't see this as a warning sign.

He argues those gains look more like the start of a longer bull market than the end of one.

For full coverage, check out Brandon Kokoden's piece on Forbes.com this is Kieran Meadows from Forbes.

Subtitles ListPlay Video

Why The Gold Stock Rally Isn’t Over Yet

struggle

pattern

term

potentially