Name: After the United States agreed to lift sanctions on potash 123 prisoners were let go | DW News
Uploaded: 2025-12-14T17:14:10.000Z
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Belarus has freed more than 120 political prisoners after the United States agreed to lift sanctions on potash, that's a key ingredient in fertilizer.

Among those released, prominent opposition leader Maria Kolesnikova.

She was one of dozens of political prisoners freed near the Belarus Ukraine border.

In neighboring Lithuania, Nobel Peace Prize winner Alex Bialiatsky was let go at the US Embassy in the capital, Vilnius.

Authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko agreed to the pardons as part of a deal brokered by the US Here's Belarusian protest leader Maria Kolesnikova speaking about her release from prison five years after she was jailed for opposing Alexander Lukashenko.

It's a great joy to now witness the first free sunset.

But at the same time, of course, I think about those people who are not yet free.

And I so eagerly await the moment when we can all hug, when we can all see each other, and

For more on this, let's bring in DW's analyst Konstantin Eggert.

Constantine, what do you make of Belarus releasing these political prisoners?

Lukashenko needs money and potash is one of the most important elements contributing to Belarus exports and its fertilizers, as was mentioned before.

So yes, this is part of the deal in which Lukashenko gets more money and he frees people that will now create one of the most impressive opposition communities, I would say, in the world.

Frankly speaking, I think that in this respect we have to mention also one thing, that this was a negotiation not only between Minsk and Washington, but

Five Ukrainians were liberated, were set free among those hundred plus people and a significant part of those released were actually sent to Ukraine where they were met by high level officials of Ukrainian government.

So it is very interesting that it was a trilateral negotiation.

Now what does this mean for Alexander Lukashenko, who the EU does not even recognize as the legitimate elected leader of Belarus?

He will not be immediately recognized as a legitimate leader.

But I think that Lukashenko's calculation is that he is going to get eventually some kind of relaxation, diplomatic and political relaxation of the isolation in which his regime finds itself, if you wish, through the American back door, that eventually the Europeans will see that the Americans are having their own deals with the, the Belarusians and will say, well, we can't be really left behind, we should jump on this train too.

So I think that's the strategy to get to force the European Union to relax its attitude by doing deals with Washington.

Now, how would Russia, which is a close ally of Belarus, see this prisoner released?

Well, I think that if Putin was objecting to this, he would have made his displeasure to Lukashenko felt and heard very, very quickly.

I do think that the Americans even mentioned one of the members of the American delegation.

Cole himself, the chief negotiator, that basically, by talking to Lukashenko indirectly, the US Is also dealing with Putin.

So there is a recognition that de facto, Lukashenko is very, very dependent on the Kremlin.

So my understanding is that it's part of a wider picture in which there are conversations going on between Moscow and Washington, Washington and Minsk, something that didn't happen before.

So in this respect, I think that Putin benefits from this by basically having his ally Lukashenko now getting more free hands and better financing.

So I think in this respect, if you wish, everyone win.

But of course, also those who are set free.

One thing that's important, Gerhard, not all political prisoners in Belarus are set free.

For example, Andrei Pachobot, quite a famous sort of political activist in, as well as the son of one person released Viktor Babarika, the former candidate in presidential elections.

So there are still quite a few people there.

TW Russia analyst Konstantin Eggert there.

She is a Belarusian journalist and a political analyst with the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center.

Now, what made the Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko release these political prisoners?

I think in the first place, it is the geopolitical situation.

Lukashenko is saying that there is some opening between the US And Russia.

There are peace talks, there are conversations about the future of the region.

So Lukashenko wants to be a part of this.

He doesn't feel that Russia should be the only country that he relies on.

Secondly, this is the sustained pressure that has been existing for all these years.

And my country's economy, Belarusian economy, feels this.

The GDP is not increasing as fast as it used to.

So the number of factors here have played a role, but definitely sanctions is one of them.

Now, do you think since Lukashenko is a close ally of Vladimir Putin, did he ask Putin for permission?

I think in general, given that Putin is speaking with President Trump himself, probably Lukashenko did not feel that he needs to ask for permission.

But also, you might remember the prisoner swap last year.

Last summer that took place between the US And Russia.

And after that, Lukashenko begin releasing some of the prisoners.

So this is a sort of permission, I think, that probably Lukashenko did not ask for, but

So in a way, this is the continuation of that.

I don't think that he's asking about particular prisoners, whether he should release them or not.

But that's definitely also part of this kind of bigger deal and bigger special operation that Lukashenko is also kind of thinking about and is doing.

We see that the kgb, Belarusian kgb, is involved in the conversations with the Americans.

So definitely that's part of a bigger conversation between Belarus.

And I think Lukashenko is definitely discussing at least some of the issues related to the war, to the geopolitical situation with Putin.

Now, there are hints that more political prisoners could be released in the near future.

I mean, the opposition within Belarus, will it be strengthened when more prisoners, political prisoners are being released?

Of course, that's something that all of us, not just the democratic forces, but

also journalists, activists, analysts, everyone, every Belarusian who is in exile, we've been fighting for in the past years for the release of those, our friends, our colleagues in jail.

And today, special envoy John Cole said that more than 1,000 more should be released soon.

And that's something that also President Trump said before, at least tweeted when he called Lukashenko a few months ago.

So, yes, we are definitely expecting them.

would also kind of force negotiate with the regime in Belarus, that people who want to stay in Belarus would stay there, because otherwise those people are just being deported.

Today, Most, more than 100 went to Ukraine, otherwise they also go to Lithuania.

You hinted already at the fact that this is related to the bigger geopolitical.

Now there's a meeting taking place in Berlin early next week between Ukraine, EU and US Officials.

Well, I, obviously I'm not inside Lukashenko's head, but

I think he's definitely following and he, as I mentioned, Right.

So he's saying that there are some changes, that something is cracking, something is going to happen.

You might remember that during the Minsk agreements negotiations that were happening in Minsk when, during the conflict, the war in Donbas, Lukashenko was hosting these talks.

probably one of the reasons why he's involved in these releases is that he wants to present himself as kind of somebody who can be negotiated with, somebody who can be talked with.

He wants to be this kind of better guy than Putin.

But of course, he doesn't want to see himself being on the outskirts of all these negotiations and great decisions, big decisions that are happening.

Hanna Aliubak over there, senior fellow of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia center, thank you very much for sharing your insight with us.