Name: 🚨CONFIRMED: Recession is closer than you think
Uploaded: 2025-09-25T18:42:10.000Z
Duration: 9 min 35 s
Description: Thousands of YouTube videos with English-Chinese subtitles! Now you can learn to understand native speakers, expand your vocabulary, and improve your pronunciation...

After a disappointing jobs report, it seems like the recession is unavoidable.

Adverbs of manner

And in the next couple of months or probably by the beginning of next year, the United States will officially be in a recession.

Because the number of jobs that were supposed to be added in August of this year, according to many economies, supposed to be around 75,000 jobs.

Worst case scenario, it would be around 65,000 jobs.

But the real number that came out is 22,000 jobs, which is a clear sign that the United States is creating less and less jobs with every single month.

In fact, if you look at this graph, it is very clear that, starting from 2022, the United States is experiencing a slowdown in the labor market.

In 2022, the interest rates were hiked and cheap money stopped flowing into the US economy, which could be the primary reason why the US economy is slowing down.

As if the entire growth of 2020 and 2021 was primarily because there was so much cheap money within the entire economy.

And what makes this report so different from previous reports is that there was a revision for May and June.

And Donald Trump was furious because we found out that the real numbers are way worse than anybody expected.

So Donald Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and replaced him with somebody that is much more loyal to Donald Trump.

And even this guy confirms that the number of jobs being created each month is slowing down, which means that sooner or later, if this trend is going to continue, in a couple of months from now, we will face a recession.

We are pretty much at the exact same level as we have been back in 2017.

Yes, unemployment spiked back in 2020 and 2021, but that's primarily because there was a global lockdown and people were forced to stay in their homes.

If you check that out, we are literally at the exact same level as we have been back in 2017.

But back then, the trend was very clear that unemployment is falling down.

But now, the trend is reversed where unemployment is growing.

If it hits 5%, then recession is imminent.

But another important question is that why companies are cutting jobs.

The first and the fundamental reason is because the AI rush is slowing down.

The economy crashed back in 2022 when the Federal Reserve hiked the interest rates.

But because ChadGBT came out, but because there was an AI revolution, every single company wanted to benefit out of this rush and they started throwing billions of dollars into startups that mastered AI.

Especially when AI took the big tech by a huge surprise.

So you could see Tesla, Google, Apple, everybody just throwing money into AI talent, hiring everybody that they can possibly do in order to compete with this AI.

But suddenly they realized that when you are making any kind of investment, that investment must pay off.

Otherwise, it's not an investment and you are literally just losing money.

Yes, you can make the argument that companies are spending so much money today because that money will pay off sometime in the future.

But that sometime in the future should not be like 100 years from now.

That sometime in the future should be in a couple of years from now.

Otherwise, investors will look at your stock and they will see a clear overvalued stock.

And that's why these investments on AI are not paying off in the foreseeable future.

So businesses and companies are a bit more careful with what they are spending.

However, another big reason is obviously Trump's tariffs.

Now when Donald Trump announced his tariffs back in April, there was a shock in the market.

However, since then, there isn't any kind of stability with tariffs.

Today we have one tariff rate, tomorrow it's increased and it's decreased and it's increased again and God knows where those tariffs are going to be.

And now the court has ruled that Trump's tariffs are unconstitutional.

But Trump has appealed that decision and we don't even know what is going to be the final tariff.

Now that makes the entire situation way worse because imagine you are a business and you have to know your final price and you have to calculate your cost.

If you are bringing something from outside the United States and then you are selling it into the United States, if you don't know what is going to be your total price, how are you supposed to ensure that you are going to be profitable?

And because you don't know the final tariff rate, you don't know what price to charge.

If we are talking about big businesses, yes, they have a lot of money, they are filled with cash, they can take some extra risk and gradually increase their prices.

Small businesses literally employ most of the people all across the United States, so they will start cutting costs because payroll is the biggest expense for any business.

Another thing that is causing so much uncertainty is that the United States is on the brink of a political crisis.

When Donald Trump passed the big beautiful bill, part of it was that the debt ceiling will be raised by about 5 trillion dollars.

Now 5 trillion dollars looks like a lot of money, it should last the United States at least 5 years.

But the reality is that it is going to expire in a year, best case scenario, 2 years is the longest period that this 5 trillion dollars is going to last.

By passing the big beautiful bill, the logic supposed to be is that we are going to have another increase in the debt ceiling by 5 trillion dollars that will give us time to cut costs and manage our finances.

But based on what the current administration is doing, they are not planning to cut costs anytime soon.

But in a year from now, the United States is going to have a midterm election, which means that if the republicans are going to lose the congress, there is going to be another political crisis.

Because the democrats most likely will to control the congress, so that will create another political crisis.

And a lot of businesses today have to be very careful with their spending, they have to prepare for that rainy day that is going to happen next year.

But the real question is, how is that going to impact the stock market?

The federal reserve most likely will prioritize the labor market over the price stability.

Because inflation has already cooled down from its like almost 10% to its lowest less than 3% and economy slowing down, the federal reserve most likely is going to give a priority to the labor market, so it will cut the interest rates this September.

In fact, I feel like or I would assume that the federal reserve will most likely cut the interest rates this year twice by 0.5 percentage points.

Now don't get super excited, they are not going to cut the interest rates to 0% or anything close to that like it was back in 2020 and 2021.

Now some people might think that it is going to lead to a stock market boom, well, most likely, it is not going to do that.

Because it's not just about the interest rates.

The second thing that the government or the federal reserve did back in 2020 and 2021 to boost the stock market is that the federal reserve intervened in the economy and started massively buying government bonds.

In fact, it even helped indirectly to purchase corporate securities in a way to boost the stock market as well.

So the federal reserve did not just lower the interest rates, but it actively pumped money into the entire economy that increased massively spending that inflated asset prices.

Well, if you look at the balance sheet of the federal reserve, the main goal of the fed is to actually reduce its balance sheet to the pre-covid level, so it needs to sell a few trillion dollars worth of its assets in the open market.

Because the federal reserve has to think long term.

They have to prepare the United States and the Federal Reserve for another major crisis.

What if there is going to be another pandemic?

What if the United States is going to engage in another war?

What if the United States is going to face another great recession or a 1929 style depression?

And because of that, the Federal Reserve is not going to actively buy any kind of securities in the market.

So it will lower interest rates, but at the same time, it will continue selling securities in the open market, which means that don't expect the stock market to boom like it was back in 2020 and 2021.

It is most likely going to be very similar to how the stock market grew between 2016 to 2019.

The worst-case scenario is a stagflation.

The best-case scenario is a slow growth over the last couple of years.

And that's because there are so many things that are happening in the economy.

First of all, the Federal Reserve has already overused its ability to pump money into the economy.

The government is running a huge deficit and does not have the capacity to pump more money into the economy.

There are so many geopolitical changes happening all across the globe that they are threatening the dominance of the dollar in the global economy.

Which is why most likely the US economy, at least over the next year, is going to experience a very slow growth.

Most likely, but it's not the worst-case scenario.

If the economy actually falls into a stagflation, that is a complete disaster because getting out of the stagflation is extremely difficult.