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If you open a map that tracks ships, zoom in on the Indian Ocean, then turn on live tracking... ...the vital arteries of global commerce become obvious Without access to it, trade between Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia... ...would basically grind to a halt These are the choke points, the critical passages that fuel the world economy For India, they're non-negotiable, carrying almost all its trade and energy Since the Indian Ocean is named after India, it is quite integral to India's worldview But it's also important to another giant China is pouring billions into ports, infrastructure and naval expansion And that has India alarmed China is not violating any international rules And China is not infringing upon India's interests Therefore, they have to change their mentality What were once obscure specks in the vast Indian Ocean... ...are now the silent targets in a looming struggle One that could choke global trade and tilt the balance of power There's increased competition between the US and China... ...between China and India as well, vying for influence within that President Donald Trump's shift in foreign policy... ...has cast uncertainty on the US's role in the region I will put America first And open doors for China At the centre of it all are tiny countries like Mauritius... ...which find themselves courted by powers that might once have overlooked them Mauritius is known for its beautiful white sand beaches, the lagoon... ...the great five-star hotels and the hospitality of Mauritians But it's more than that Mauritius controls 2.3 million kilometres... ...of economic exclusive zone in the Indian Ocean It sits in the middle of the maritime trade So it shows how strategic, important Mauritius is Its heat sweetens those sugar canes on which the island's economy depends When I was born, the country was living off sugar cane plantation We saw a kind of a surge of interest from the early 2000s from China It shifted from China to India... ...leveraging on the fact that Mauritius is also known as Little India... ...or Chota Bharat, as we say And these countries do help us, be it China, be it India So it's helping the country to prosper But just beyond these pristine shores, military bases... ...on the Agalega Islands, a territory governed by Mauritius... ...India has constructed a new airstrip to land surveillance aircraft... ...in large part to track Chinese activity Meanwhile, Diego Garcia, another island Mauritius has sovereignty over... ...has proved strategic for US and UK military power... ...with a base there since the 1970s When powers become global, one thing they want to do... ...is kind of spec the globe with military bases to project power internationally And when you think about that kind of network... ...it's something that China is starting to set its sights on But China is not alone India's Agalega base signals a shift in its global ambitions too... ...driven by economic expansion and tensions with China India and China have had ties dating back millennia They had a brief period of friendship in the 1950s... ...but the two countries fought a border war in 1962 And the relationship honestly has never quite recovered It's characterised by deep mistrust, a deep sense of insecurity on Delhi's part And in fact, in 2020, the two countries fought a series of border skirmishes... ...which resulted in loss of life on both sides If the dispute between India and China was primarily land-based in the past... ...now both countries are thinking about how that extends into the maritime domain Four of the world's six most important maritime chokepoints are in the Indian Ocean... ...making it absolutely critical to global trade When you think about countries like India and China... ...the dependency is really quite startling India relies on the ocean for something like 95% of its international trade... ...80% of its energy In fact, 40% of the world's offshore petroleum is found in the Indian Ocean... ...and nearly half of oil products transiting through these chokepoints... ...are received by India and China When Beijing looks at its energy security, its ability to procure oil for example... ...it's very heavily dependent on the Middle East to some extent, Africa... ...and nearly all of that goes through this chokepoint called the Strait of Lacka Blocking any of these routes would have a huge impact on global trade... ...creating a potential flashpoint for conflict But China has seemingly been preparing As part of its Global Belt and Road Initiative... ...it has asserted its regional influence... ...with multi-billion-dollar infrastructure investments across the Indian Ocean You can see China's influence in infrastructure, the airport, the dam... ...the headquarters of the national radio TV station In Mauritius, they've also installed surveillance cameras... ...made by Chinese telecom giant Huawei You will find that all these projects are economic projects... ...which of course are welcomed by these countries Alongside its aggressive military build-up in the South China Sea... ...China is also extending its reach into the Indian Ocean Chinese warships have been sent on anti-piracy missions... ...and billions funnelled into 46 commercial ports... ...36 of which can host naval vessels On Africa's east coast, China built its first military base in Djibouti... ...and is expanding its naval footprint in Cambodia... ...giving it the potential to project power from both sides of the Indian Ocean The rate at which China is building ships, aircraft, missiles... ...you have actually a dramatic expansion of Chinese military power It's a growing concern for Indian policymakers... ...who know the Indian Ocean is more than just a trade route The idea that an external power... ...and these days it's increasingly Beijing that they're thinking of... ...could shut that down or somehow hinder it... ...is a really big threat to India's national security... ...and its hopes of rising As China pushes in, the power that has dominated... ...the Indian Ocean for decades is in retreat We have more breaking news on this Friday night Secretary of State Marco Rubio now ordering the US... ...to immediately stop almost all foreign aid and supplies... ...pending a review The US cuts to foreign assistance are like a gift to China The US had been investing aid in democracy promotion... ...protecting civil society, health, education, transparent economic development Now that many of those programmes have gone away... ...it really is allowing China an opportunity to come in and fill the gaps While the US still controls more military installations than any other nation... ...with about 750 across at least 80 countries... ...President Trump's foreign policy has meant scaling back... ...on global defence commitments And that puts more pressure on the US base on Diego Garcia... ...to counter China's growing presence This is the only base where the US has bombers in the Indo-Pacific region... ...aside from Guam And it's an area where countries like India... ...would not want the Chinese to get access and get a hold on As a result, India is flexing its military might Alongside the airstrip in Agalega... ...it has commissioned a new base on Minicoy Island... ...and opened its first offshore military logistics hub... ...at Dukhum Port in Oman It's also working harder to win hearts and minds around the Indian Ocean We are at the main metro station in Portlis, the capital The whole project has been funded through grants from India It showcases India's investment in a small island nation like Mauritius While China continues to dominate regional investment... ...not all of its projects have delivered See this picture?
That's what Jinfei was meant to be There should have been a five-star hotel... ...luxury apartment with this sprawling leisure area with swimming pools But it never happened If you go to Jinfei, this was supposed to be a zone... ...that would mirror the kind of special economic zones... ...that China has dotted along its southern coast... ...and which helped to project China... ...and to kick-start this boom in its economy It's fair to say that Jinfei fell well short of expectations We can also make mistakes... ...but nobody could doubt China's good intention... ...and China's real investment There is a lot of talk about how the world has changed But one thing that is indisputable... ...is that the international geopolitics is moving from the west to the east So this kind of collective rise in Asia is happening And I believe this is what a late leader, Deng Xiaoping... ...has described the Asian century I think what the future holds in the Indian Ocean region... ...is continued competition between India and China for influence I think China will continue to press forward It will continue to invest economically, politically, militarily... ...in the countries surrounding India What India tries to bring is really an alternative model... ...which is not extractive, which is not exploitative... ...where you can build a mutually beneficial relationship If the US does really downsize its role in this part of the world... ...then I think there will be much more jockeying for position... ...between the regional powers I would suspect there will be more conflict Like it or not, China plays the long game They're very, very patient, they'll wait Maybe the next opportunity would be Chinese... ...or maybe American, or maybe Indian It's no clear-cut picture right now Who is winning, who is losing?
