Name: Is the US at risk of repeating past mistakes? | DW News
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As we've heard Donald Trump will decide whether the US will join Israel and bombing Iran within two weeks But direct US involvement in the conflict risks a backlash from parts of Trump's political base The US president also campaigned on keeping America out of foreign wars I mean, you don't know that I'm gonna even do it.

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I may not do it I mean, nobody knows what I'm gonna do I can US President Donald Trump keeping the world in suspense as he faces the most momentous foreign policy Decisions so far in his second term No one knows what he'll do but within his administration and coalition of supporters There are very different ideas of what Trump should do hawkish commentators and supporters in Congress are all in on bombing Iran's nuclear facilities Iran nuclear program is very close and the world will be better off for it But many of Trump's most fervent MAGA and America first supporters are against military action His former adviser Steve Bannon has advised Trump to stay out of the conflict national intelligence director Tulsi Gabbard said earlier this year that Iran was not pursuing nuclear weapons and Influential representative Marjorie Taylor Greene said on social media Anyone Slobbering for the u.s.

To become fully involved in the Israel-iran war is not America first MAGA This conservative civil war came to a head on right-wing media personality Tucker Carlson's show the host locking horns with pro-intervention senator Ted Cruz No, you don't know anything about the country you're the one who claims they're not trying to murder Donald Trump Beyond the splits in Trump's base allies have called for de-escalation But he's shown little interest in listening to them and Russia has warned the u.s.

Against military intervention Calling it an extremely dangerous step Then there are the risks of unintended consequences It's far from clear that America's bunker busting bombs which have never been used in combat will actually take out Iran's Fordow enrichment complex Even if they do there's a high risk that Iran would retaliate against u.s.

Troops in the Middle East that would almost certainly lead the u.s.

To strike Iran again a Potential spiral out of control that could lead to full-on war That would lead to a spike in oil prices widespread economic disruption could follow Trump faces a choice between heeding advice to take decisive action Versus his campaign promises not to start forever wars.

The world is waiting to see which side will win Let's bring in our Washington bureau chief Enos Paul and it's great to see you You just returned from today's White House briefing a possibly presidency defining decision within two weeks.

All right, it was really a quite a substantial briefing which is not always the case Donald Trump's spokesperson Caroline Leavitt read a direct message from the president, which also doesn't happen often in which he Announced he would decide within the next two weeks whether the United States would become involved in military actions or not We of course wanted to know what criteria he would use to make that decision But Caroline Leavitt didn't reveal much.

She Repeatedly stated and that's important that the president is still hoping for diplomatic solution and that his main Interest is in preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and that he's not interested in In kind of being involved in any regime change Meanwhile resistance to possible interventions is growing within the Republican Party among Democrats Of course as well, but especially also among Trump's MAGA base Are we seeing a rift emerge between Trump and his most loyal allies?

This is indeed a significant problem for Donald Trump as we all pray probably remember He promised during his campaign not only to end the war in Ukraine on day one, but also become a no war President and where are we now?

We are still having the war going on in Ukraine and we have another war in Gaza and now we have a potential US engagement in the war in Iran So he really has to be careful here because recent polls indicate that his base doesn't want US military involvement Abroad and this is another reason why his administration is so heavily focused on finding a diplomatic solution Can we expect Europe to play a role here at all Well, the White House wasn't too pleased that Europeans will be meeting with the Iranians without us in the first place, however The Trump administration made it clear that he Donald Trump expects that the European leaders will fully support Whatever Donald Trump decides but let's be quite frank Europe Especially Germany doesn't have much to offer at least for now when it comes to the military equipment Needed to destroy these facilities in Iran Maybe in terms of diplomacy, that was DW is Washington bureau chief Enos Paul.

Thanks so much Let's bring in Fowler's jerseys He's a professor of Middle Eastern politics and international relations at the London School of Economics Fowler's welcome back to DW.

It's always great to have you on the show Donald Trump says he will decide within two weeks what to do.

Intervention change the nature of this conflict?

Very hopeful that there is a window of opportunity for diplomacy If you had asked me earlier, I would have said that President Trump was planning to join Israel's war against Iran.

I think his statement is very consequential Today, he seems to be taking his time and I think we might see a diplomatic breakthrough In the next few days and he has made it very clear He wants to give diplomacy a chance and the Iranians are very much interested in diplomacy They're sending their foreign minister tomorrow to meet with their German and French and British Counterparts and I think this European diplomatic pathway could really I mean Produce a kind of breakthrough because it's coordinated with the Trump administration Let's look at what's at stake here because parallels are being drawn between US deployments in the past namely Iraq and Afghanistan does the u.s.

Risk repeating errors from the past here Well, I mean that's the fear Because as you know the new conservatives in the United States manufactured false evidence in 2002 and 2003 About Saddam Hussein and his weapons of mass destruction in order to justify America's invasion and occupation of Iraq, which was catastrophic It was catastrophic for Iraq and it was catastrophic for the neighborhood and now it seems to me There's a similar narrative here just for your own viewers two days ago CNN reported quoting American intelligence officials the US intelligence assessment found that Iran has not been actively engaged in building a nuclear weapon and Has been or is three years away from having the capacity to do so Today the White House said it was only a couple of weeks away Exactly and when when President Trump was challenged about his directive intelligence who told That you know the Congress in March that the the u.s intelligence assessment believes that Iran is not developing a nuclear weapon and the Supreme Leader of Iran has not basically authorized a Program to develop a nuclear weapon.

I don't care what she what she said He's my rector of intelligence, but let's focus on the present now.

It seems to me that Donald Trump is Rethinking his early You know decision to intervene to attack Iran and I'm hopeful that we might see a breakthrough Even though the situation in in Israel and Iran is extremely now very dangerous given the Attacks and counterattacks by both side on their cities.

That would be acceptable to Israel Iran and the u.s Think what matters here is the United States what matters is one man Donald Trump if Donald Trump believes that a diplomatic Pathway meets his conditions I think he could easily pressure Netanyahu to end the war and I think my take on it is that the Iranians are very serious About finding a diplomatic solution.

They have sent messages feelers to the Qataris and the Omani's and We know very well that they have contacted the White House according to President Trump.

So I'm hopeful I'm hoping that both the United States and Iran could basically go back to the Negotiating table as you and I would have been talking about it in the past two months and find a way out of this dangerous That'd be bad luck Yeah, and just to be clear Iran denies having reached out to the White House just before we wrap up What conditions do you think would need to be met for an agreement to be?

Satisfactory to the United States because they have insisted in the past that they want all nuclear capabilities to disappear from Iran This is critical challenge Facing any diplomatic really settlement will Iran accept?

any agreement that does not really allow it to enrich uranium on its soil a Creative way an imaginative way could be found to basically bridge the divide between the United States and Iran if you ask me what are the chances of an agreement if the two sides sit down on the Negotiating tables.

I would say it's probably five out of ten or six out of ten at this particular moment Because Iran has suffered a great deal Iran does not really want to be dragged into war with the United States It wants to avoid all-out war with Donald Trump So that gives me some hope and it seems to me that Donald Trump is really reflecting on the risks basically deciding to attack Iran and join Israel's war against Iran and those risks could almost not be greater That was follows jergy's professor of Middle Eastern politics and international relations at LSE.

Always great to have you on the show Me Joining me now is Ben.

Ooh He's the senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and joins us now from Washington DC good to have you with us again, then I'm now President Trump wants two weeks to make a decision on US involvement in this conflict.

What's your interpretation of this time frame, especially considering?

Trump recently called for Iran surrender Pleasure to be back with you Putting the actual nature of the strike away itself.

The two-week window can be interpreted positively or negatively if you're supporter of the strike he can be interpreted positively in the sense that it would give these really is more time to disarm or defang the rest of the Iranian missile and military apparatus that probably would be used to respond to a high impact and high value strike that the u.s.

Would be engaging in if it went after the Ford of facility and if you're not in favor of a strike instead looking to build Leverage.

Well, then this is the time really to build leverage for a potentially bigger broader better deal one That may meet the president's high standard of quote-unquote surrender Or may very much be in line with some of the last u.s.

Proposals to the Iranians prior to this entire ordeal going kinetic So there's different ways to spin it and like all things in life Where you sit on this issue where you stand on this issue very much depends on where you sit Meanwhile Israel says it'll step up its attacks What with Iran showing no sign of letting up its attacks either So, how do you expect this to play out in the next in the immediate future?

And that is indeed the most Likeliest scenario where these really see the up to two-week window as an opportunity to really as you mentioned Step up those attacks potentially push the Iranians further to further reduce the number of launchers available Because without the launchers the regime's most likely and already most consistent vector of response, which is direct medium-range ballistic missile attacks from Iranian territory I will have less and less and less of a chance of succeeding and put the regime to the choice between Using these projectiles or saving them for a potential future regime survival scenario So I that's why I think these really is you're gonna be spinning it of course the challenge here is that as you as the operations continue and if the operations move back into targeted centers in the Targets go if operations continue and targets are selected within major population centers such as the capital Tehran for instance The chances of civilian casualties going up is higher.

So there's no doubt that unfortunately There is still plenty more shooting going ahead for the next two weeks And Iran has put out this warning to the US against any direct interference Threatening severe consequences.

You know in the pre Entry period those severe consequences are designed to change American Calculations and to erode America's will to enter the fight rather than capability to enter the fight Broadly those are seen as just being a few things.

One is the direct or indirect attacks either by the Iranian government particularly Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Firing ballistic missiles or cruise missiles or drones at bases or military facilities or even diplomatic facilities From Iraq all the way down to the southern part of the Persian Gulf And then there's also the chance that Shia militias in Iraq or Yemen could re-enter the fight being you know There's a chance of course that the Islamic Republic escalates its Claim for NPT withdrawal and then of course Potentially even mining or trying to prevent or impede and the free flow of commerce And energy through the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf so the regime has options here But each one of these options is risky costly and will almost certainly trigger an American response But the US is leaving room for a return to talks with Iran.

It depends a great deal on how much of a you know Face-saving line of retreats the regime may believe talks afford it as well as what the status or balance of forces are between Israel and Iran during those two weeks whichever side feels like it may have the upper hand and probably have the ability to Shape or drive the incentive of the other for some kind of a diplomatic outcome But make no mistake the Islamic Republic does back down when faced with pressure But that is when it is faced with sustained pressure and sustained pressure takes time and certainly the current supreme leader of Iran Ali Khamenei Whose life has a directly or indirectly been threatened by all these leaks that say You know the Iranian the Americans may be willing to target him or the Israelis may be willing to target him Is going to be thinking about how much face-saving he can do without losing his head And I'm Ben Talibu.

Thank you for your insights as usual Thank you Let's discuss the situation with Giorgio Caffiero is a Middle East analyst and the CEO and founder of Gulf state Analytics joining us from Washington DC.

Good to have you with us Donald Trump campaigned as a peacemaker someone who would be Ending and not starting wars, but now his own party is even split over this potential intervention in Iran Does this place Trump in a difficult position?

Yeah Well, first of all, thanks for having me on your program there is no doubt that the Israel Iran conflict has Resulted in or at least exposed a huge divide in Trump's base that make America great again movement.

There are Many in his support base who want the US to have more of a restrainer foreign policy Really in contrast to the neo-conservative era of the Republican Party during the George W Bush years and even outside of Trump's base, there's very little appetite from the American public for bringing the United States into protracted conflicts and Costly quagmires in the Middle East.

So there certainly is quite a bit of domestic pressure on Trump to avoid Allowing the u.s.

To get dragged into this war on Iran right Israel is Expecting some support what what kind of support do they want or role do they want the u.s.

Well, this goes back way before June 13th for many years Netanyahu's government is in trying to pull the United States into a war with Iran.

I think it's very clear that Now that we're on day seven of this war Israel has not been able to deliver a decisive knockout and I think the thinking on the part of Israel's leadership is that for Israel to fulfill?

It's necessary to bring the United States into the conflict I think a concern is on Israel's part that if Trump does not get the u.s.

Involved more directly and more overtly this could turn into somewhat of a war of attrition That might not go so well for Israel.

So Achieving the Israeli goals I think from the perspective of Tel Aviv requires bringing the United States in and we should emphasize that these goals go way beyond Simply dismantling Iran's nuclear program.

That's a part of the agenda But I think Israel's real goals also include Toppling the Iranian regime and really dismantling the Iranian nation-state and fragmenting the country For that to happen.

They really want the United States to get involved very heavily but with Trump leaving the door open for talks with the Iranians that would not appeal to the Israelis, right?

Well, even again before June 13th Same Situation as now the Israeli leadership does not want any American Iranian diplomacy quite frankly I don't really see any American Iranian diplomacy taking place as long as the Israeli Strikes on Iran are continuing but no to answer your question Of course Netanyahu's government does not want the Trump administration to try to pursue Some sort of a diplomatic off-ramp right now.

That's definitely not what Israel's leadership would like to see And and what about Iran?

What options does it have at the moment and and but possible even military support?

Well, there's no doubt that Iran doesn't have too many options But I think the leadership in Tehran believes it has no choice but to try to sustain these counter-strikes against Israel I think the Iranian leadership is very worried about appearing weak blinking or slowing down the momentum of its counter-strikes Iran's leadership does not want to surrender in the event that this Israeli war on Iran Leads to the toppling of the Islamic Republic.

I think the regime would go down Certainly fighting in terms of allies that Iran has, you know I think probably in the region the most important ally would be the Houthi rebel movement in Yemen since June 13 The Houthis in Yemen have been coordinating attacks on Israel with Iran other players in the axis of resistance such as Lebanon's Hezbollah and some of the Iran aligned factions in Iraq They have been staying out of the war so far Obviously Lebanon's Hezbollah is in a much weaker position as a consequence of the war that it fought with Israel in 2023 and 2024 In terms of other actors on the international stage, I do not see Russia getting involved on the side of Iran But I think there's some support that Russia might give Iran that could help Iran sustain its war campaign, but Again, I do not see Russia getting involved directly We'll have to leave it there, but thank you very much Jojo Cafiero from the Gulf state analytics Good to be with you