Name: He Predicted Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020 and Now… | NYT Opinion
Uploaded: 2024-09-20T02:53:04.000Z
Duration: 7 min 8 s
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There's a lot of hoopla about age these days, but not for me!

That's Alan Lichtman, 77-year-old Alan Lichtman, and he's racing in the qualifiers for the Senior Olympics.

But there's another kind of race Alan's just as qualified for.

Alan Lichtman, Professor Alan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted almost every presidential election since 1984.

And today, Alan Lichtman's ready to tell us who's going to win in 2024.

You see, you may think Alan's just a jock.

Well, I was a steeplechase champion in the 1970s.

His name is Dr. Alan Lichtman, but he's actually kind of a nerd, a history professor, and a quiz show champion.

These days, he's on a different kind of winning streak.

To make his presidential predictions, Alan's model ignores the polls and the pundits.

It hinges on 13 keys that I developed in 1981 with my geophysicist friend Vladimir Kailas Borak.

It's based on 120 years of presidential election outcomes before then.

Alan's model was one of the few that called it for Trump in 2016.

The race was tight, but the keys were right.

So let's get to how these keys actually work.

They are 13 big-picture, true-false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House party.

And only two keys have anything to do with the candidates.

But Alan, 2024 is an unprecedented election year.

They are the constant northern star of political prediction.

All right, time to run these keys and find out who will be the next president of the United States, according to Alan.

But first, let me change into something a little more comfortable.

The Democrats did better than expected in 2022, but they still lost House seats, so the key is false.

The incumbency key, the sitting president is running for re-election.

Biden withdrew from the race, costing the Democrats this key.

Wait, you're saying it would have helped the Democrats if Biden stayed in?

If Biden stayed in, they would have salvaged this one key.

Number three, the White House party avoided a primary contest.

The Democrats finally got smart and united overwhelmingly behind Vice President Harris, so the key is true, a true key that moves Harris off the starting block.

Number four, there's no third-party challenger.

RFK Jr. has dropped out of the race, and no other third-party candidate is anywhere close to the 10% polling threshold needed to turn this key.

It's true, four keys in, and it's neck and neck.

Number five, the short-term economy is strong.

Look, despite all the loose talk about a so-called vibe session, the economy is not in recession, so this key is true.

Number six, long-term economic growth during this presidential term has been at least as good as the last two terms.

Growth during the Biden term is far ahead of growth during the previous two terms, so this key is clearly true.

Number seven, the White House has made major changes to national policy, rejoining the Paris Accords on climate change, the CHIPS bill, the infrastructure bill, the inflation reduction and climate change bill.

Number eight, there is no sustained social unrest during the term.

There have been sporadic protests, but nothing approaching the massive sustained social unrest needed to turn this key, so it's true.

But schools are just going back to session with new protests.

Yes, there are a lot of protesters upset with Biden's policies in the Middle East, but now with Harris, not Biden, front and center, that has dampened social unrest.

Number nine, the White House is untainted by scandal.

And Republicans have been trying for years to pin a scandal on President Biden and come up empty, so the key is true.

Biden's horrific debate performance, questions about his age, Hunter Biden.

There has to be at least some bipartisan recognition of actual corruption that implicates the president himself and not a family member.

So two false and seven true so far, looking pretty good for the Democrats.

We have four keys left, all of which would have to be false for Trump to have a path.

Number 10, the incumbent party candidate is charismatic.

You have to be a once-in-a-generational, broadly inspirational candidate.

Harris has not met that standard, so this key is false.

Number 11, the challenger is uncharismatic.

Some people think Donald Trump is a god, but he only appeals to a narrow base.

But wait, that means the Democrats will hold on to the White House, and Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States.

We still have two keys left, the foreign policy keys.

Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip.

The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight.

But even if both foreign policy keys flipped false, that would mean that there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House.

So I guess that means you're standing by your prediction.

Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States.

At least, that's my prediction for this race.

But the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote.

Well, I won some medals, I didn't get hurt, and I qualified for the 2025 National Senior Olympics.