Name: These Voters Could Cost Biden’s Re-Election Bid: A Data Breakdown | WSJ State of the Stat
Uploaded: 2024-04-30T23:41:28.000Z
Duration: 4 min 41 s
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Adverbs of degree

a majority of voters already have a pretty good idea

of which candidate they'll choose in November.

But 32% of the voting pool is still persuadable.

A combination of people who are undecided,

or aren't fully committed to a candidate.

Together, this group could be the deciding factor

in a tight election, swayed by either Trump or Biden.

they could offer some additional challenges

by four or five points in national polling

to have the strength to win in the electoral college.

- [Narrator] So who are these persuadables?

And what can they tell us about what candidates

The persuadable group looks very different

based off a WSJ poll of voters in swing states.

And they're more likely to identify as moderate

- Well, a lot of the issues that the candidates

are talking about don't resonate with them.

These voters are not very focused on immigration,

which is something you'll hear Donald Trump talk about

And abortion, these voters are interested in abortion,

These tend to be moderate, economy-focused voters.

that people deal with in their daily lives.

- [Narrator] And they don't really feel good

There's nothing new or exciting about them

- [Narrator] Richard Thau moderates focus groups with voters

to see how they're feeling about candidates

"Ugh, why do I have to choose these guys?

- [Narrator] While they tend to rank Biden higher

on issues like abortion and protecting democracy,

and Trump higher on economy and immigration,

they're far more likely than the rest of the electorate

- They cannot wait to get rid of both of them.

They want them done for the scene, they want them retired.

They want a new generation that is running the country.

And that's the thing that's different this time

- [Narrator] These voters also skew less White,

Remember, these are the big groups of the electorate

that were crucial to Biden's win over Trump.

Voters in those groups are not coming out for Biden,

they're saying they're gonna support Biden

to the same degree as they have in past elections.

their problems with Biden over the last four years

reflect the larger electorate's problems with Biden.

First, there's Biden's age and ability to lead.

think he's not in shape to take office again.

Then there's what he's actually been able

a lot of the people I interview aren't feeling

- [Narrator] In one of Thau's focus groups,

this criticism was big with Black voters,

who also make up the second biggest slice

- If it was a significant change in those areas,

then it would be obvious, we could all see it.

And we could feel it in our day-to-day lives.

- [Narrator] But Trump has work to do with persuadables too.

Thau says that Trump's conduct is one major reason