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  • Taiwan is gearing up for its next presidential election on January 13th.

  • The stakes in this vote are higher than ever before as ties grow increasingly strained between the self-ruled island and mainland China.

  • Whoever is elected Taiwan's president will also signal where US-China relations are headed.

  • [Speaking in Chinese] Currently, Taiwan is facing the critical choice between the two paths and prospects of peace and war, prosperity and decline.

  • But how have relations soured to this extent?

  • In 1992, a political consensus was reached by Beijing and Taiwan, which at the time was ruled by the Kuomintang.

  • Under what is now known as the '92 consensus, both parties have agreed there is only one China, but they could disagree over what that means.

  • It was assumed the mainland would define it as the People's Republic of China and Taiwan would define it as the Republic of China.

  • To Beijing, the '92 Consensus has been the basis of cross-strait ties.

  • But Taiwan's economy suffered from a global economic downturn during the KMT's eight years in power and many voters felt the close ties with Beijing benefited businesses more than ordinary people.

  • Here's how one expert explained it at the time.

  • The current government [KMT] has maintained a rapprochement policy with China.

  • But many voters in Taiwan consider that rapprochement has not been able to bring prosperity to Taiwan's economy, and more dignity and participation in international community.

  • That year, the independence leading Democratic Progressive Party swept into power with current President Tsai Ing-wen in the top job.

  • [Speaking in Chinese] We need every single vote for change.

  • Tomorrow, we will return the power to the people. Tomorrow, we will win Taiwan back.

  • Tomorrow, we will use our ballots to bring the presidential office back to the people of Taiwan.

  • Tsai's election as the island's top leader brought cross-strait to a impasse.

  • She refused to accept the '92 Consensus while Beijing regarded her as a "separatist."

  • Tensions only intensified when Tsai won a second term in office with a record 8 million votes in 2020.

  • Her campaign focused on safeguarding the island's democracy and raising fears that Taiwan would be controlled by Beijing.

  • She used Hong Kong's 2019 anti-government protests to reject any notion of a "one-country, two-systems" policy for reunification.

  • [Speaking in Chinese] I want to ask you all here, does anyone want war? Nobody wants war. Do we want peace? Everyone wants peace.

  • Look at Hong Kong and think of Taiwan. We don't want Hong Kong-style peace.

  • We want dignified peace. Everyone, am I right?

  • Tsai has reached her two-term limit, so she cannot run in this coming election.

  • Experts say cross-strait relations remain a major concern to Taiwanese voters.

  • [Speaking in Chinese] The main candidates with different views on the future of cross-strait relations matter to the presidential election.

  • Some of them are in favor of maintaining a more friendly attitude with the Chinese mainland,

  • and some of them are in favor of maintaining Taiwan's sovereignty and not accepting the 1992 Consensus with the Chinese mainland.

  • So as to which candidate is elected, whether it is possible for cross-strait relations to cause further tension or easing... those are everyone's concern.

  • Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary.

  • Most countries including the US do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-ruled island by force, and is committed to arming Taiwan.

  • In October poll by the Taiwanese government's Mainland Affairs Council showed only about 7% of Taiwan's people supported reunification.

  • In comparison, 25% were in favor of independence.

  • But support for either Taiwanese unification or independence had both dropped compared with the same period ahead of the previous election.

  • It showed the vast majority of Taiwanese people wanted neither option.

  • They simply wanted to maintain Taiwan's status the way it is. Not formally independent and not unified with mainland China.

  • The frontrunner in this election is DPP candidate and current vice-president William Lai Ching-te.

  • But he only has about 30% support among voters, mainly the party's long-time supporters, according to opinion polls.

  • Like Tsai, his campaign has focused on raising fears of a takeover by Beijing.

  • [Speaking in Chinese] China's desire to "swallow up" Taiwan was the country's national policy as they strive for world hegemony,

  • it's not because of which political party or related to any candidate and their policies.

  • But it's not clear if using the same strategy this time will help Lai win.

  • He has faced difficulties winning over middle of the road voters partly because of fears The DPP's path of confrontation with Beijing could lead Taiwan towards war with mainland China.

  • Beijing has repeatedly criticized Lai as pro-independence, along with his vice-presidential running mate, Xiao Bi-khim, Taiwan's former de facto ambassador to the United States.

  • [Speaking in Chinese] Such a dangerous "separatist duo" from the Democratic Progressive Party will only poison the interests and well-being of the people on the island,

  • poison cross-strait peace and stability, and poison the future and destiny of Taiwan.

  • Their biggest opponent is the KMT's Hou Yu-ih, who seeks to reduce tensions and restore dialogue with Beijing while also protecting Taiwan's self-rule and democracy.

  • The KMT has been trying to narrow the gap between Hou and the DPP's Lai, even calling on KMT supporters living on the mainland to return to the island for the vote, which must be cast in person.

  • This year, a candidate from a relatively new party, the Taiwan People's Party has also emerged as a contender.

  • Ko Wen-je, a former mayor of Taipei, is mostly favored by young Taiwanese who do not like either the DPP or KMT, but he is trailing behind his two opponents.

  • Ko has shown a more diplomatic inclination in approaching Taiwan's relationships with both mainland China and the US.

  • [Speaking in Chinese] I hope Taiwan can be a bridge between China and the United States, not a pawn in the confrontation between China and the United States.

  • The Taiwan issue has long been a major flashpoint of Beijing's relations with Washington.

  • The US is bound by law to provide Taiwan with defense of military equipment.

  • But more than just a military obligation, Taiwan in recent years has also been seen by the US as an important partner to counter mainland China's growing assertiveness and influence in the region.

  • "As a leading democracy and a technological powerhouse, Taiwan is a key US partner in the Indo-Pacifi. Though the United States does not have diplomatic relations with Taiwan, we have a robust unofficial relationship."

  • The US and China have long fought for technological dominance and clashed over their global trade involving reciprocal tariffs.

  • Both Washington and Beijing need a reliable supply of semiconductors and industry-led globally by Taiwan.

  • Semiconductors are used in most smartphones, computers, cars, F-35 fighter jets, and even NASA's Perseverance Rover that landed on Mars.

  • The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company recorded a market share of more than 50% in the whole global semiconductor foundry market in 2023.

  • If China gains more influence over Taiwan, the US claims that it would pose a threat to global supply chains and jeopardize American and global technology security.

  • Former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi even stopped by TSMC during her controversial 2022 visit to Taiwan.

  • That visit, the first by such a high-ranking US politician in many years, angered Beijing, which saw it as a challenge to Chinese sovereignty.

  • Shortly after, Chinese military aircraft started crossing the Taiwan Strait's median line, an unofficial barrier between the mainland and Taiwan.

  • [Speaking in Chinese] Once a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait over "Taiwan independence" or the intervention of external forces,

  • Taiwan will become a battlefield, and the Taiwanese people will be caught in crossfire and turned into cannon fodder.

  • So of course the world is concerned, especially now that there are wars going on globally.

  • So a threat from China, it's not just a threat to Taiwan, it's probably a threat to democratic camps around the world.

  • Ahead of the vote, President Tsai has reversed her party's previous frequent warnings about the prospect of war and sought to play down such fears.

  • Opinion polls show the DPP is struggling to increase support from voters and it could be a neck-and-neck race.

  • Many voters are now worried there could be a war if tensions escalate out of control.

  • I think the Chinese leadership at this juncture is overwhelmed by its internal challenges.

  • And my thought is that perhaps this is not a time for them to consider a major invasion of Taiwan.

  • Regardless of who succeeds Tsai as Taiwan's next leader, after the January 13th poll, ties between the island, mainland China and the United States will have important consequences for the region and the world.

Taiwan is gearing up for its next presidential election on January 13th.

Subtitles and vocabulary

B1 taiwan beijing mainland china mainland china taiwanese

Why Taiwan’s election matters to the world

  • 42954 329
    林宜悉 posted on 2024/01/09
Video vocabulary

Keywords

struggle

US /ˈstrʌɡəl/

UK /'strʌɡl/

  • noun
  • Strong efforts made to do something difficult
  • A prolonged effort for something
  • A difficult or challenging situation or task
  • verb
  • To try very hard to do something difficult
  • other
  • To try very hard to do, achieve, or deal with something that is difficult or that causes problems
  • To fight or struggle violently
term

US /tɚm/

UK /tɜ:m/

  • noun
  • A condition under which an agreement is made.
  • Conditions applying to an agreement, contract
  • A fixed period for which something lasts, especially a period of study at a school or college.
  • Each of the quantities in a ratio, series, or mathematical expression.
  • A limited period of time during which someone holds an office or position.
  • Length of time something is expected to happen
  • The normal period of gestation.
  • A way in which a person or thing is related to another.
  • Fixed period of weeks for learning at school
  • The (precise) name given to something
  • A word or phrase used to describe a thing or express a concept, especially in a particular kind of language or subject.
  • other
  • Give a specified name or description to.
  • verb
  • To call; give a name to
campaign

US /kæmˈpen/

UK /kæm'peɪn/

  • noun
  • Series of actions meant to achieve a goal
  • A planned set of military activities intended to achieve a particular objective.
  • A series of military operations intended to achieve a particular objective, confined to a specific area or involving a specified type of fighting.
  • A series of planned activities designed to achieve a particular aim.
  • A series of planned activities designed to achieve a particular aim.
  • A series of planned activities designed to achieve a particular social, political, or commercial aim.
  • verb
  • To work in an organized, active way towards a goal
  • other
  • To work in an organized and active way towards a particular goal, typically a political or social one.
  • other
  • To promote or advocate for something in a planned and active way.
force

US /fɔrs, fors/

UK /fɔ:s/

  • other
  • To break open (something) using force.
  • To compel (someone) to do something.
  • To cause (a plant or crop) to develop or mature prematurely in a greenhouse or under artificial conditions.
  • To cause (a plant or flower) to grow or develop at an increased rate.
  • To use physical strength to break open or move (something).
  • other
  • Coercion or compulsion; strength or power exerted to cause motion or change.
  • Strength or energy as an attribute of physical action or movement.
  • other
  • Coercion or compulsion; strength or power exerted to cause or affect.
  • An influence or effect.
  • Physical strength or energy as an attribute of physical action or movement.
  • Strength or energy as an attribute of physical action or movement.
  • noun
  • Coercion or compulsion, especially with the use or threat of violence.
  • Group of persons trained for military action; army
  • A body of people employed and trained for a particular task or purpose.
  • An influence or effect.
  • A body of people employed and trained for law enforcement.
  • A body of soldiers or police.
  • An influence that can cause a body to accelerate.
  • Pressure; attraction
  • Strength or energy as an attribute of physical action or movement.
  • The use of physical strength/violence to persuade
  • Strength or power of expression or argument.
  • verb
  • To use physical strength or violence to persuade
strain

US /stren/

UK /streɪn/

  • verb
  • To remove the water from (food) using a colander
  • To injure a muscle, leg etc. by using it too much
  • noun
  • Injury to a muscle, leg etc. through overuse
  • Type or variation of a disease or bacillus
previous

US /ˈpriviəs/

UK /ˈpri:viəs/

  • adjective
  • Coming or occurring before something else in time or order.
  • Existing or occurring immediately before in time or order.
  • Existing or happening before the present time.
  • Existing or happening before the present time
  • Existing or occurring before in time or order.
  • Having occurred or existed before.
  • Immediately preceding in time or order.
  • Immediately preceding in time or order.
  • Coming or occurring before something else; preceding.
  • noun
  • A button or link that allows navigation to a preceding item or page.
  • adverb
  • Before; previously.
current

US /ˈkɚrənt, ˈkʌr-/

UK /'kʌrənt/

  • adjective
  • In general use or accepted by most people.
  • Of or relating to the present time; up-to-date.
  • Happening or being in the present time
  • Happening or existing now; belonging to the present time.
  • Valid or up-to-date.
  • noun
  • Electricity flowing through wires
  • Currency in circulation.
  • Movement of water in a river, or air in the sky
  • A widespread feeling or opinion.
  • A general tendency or course of events.
  • other
  • A flow of electrical charge through a conductor.
extent

US /ɪkˈstɛnt/

UK /ɪkˈstent/

  • noun
  • The degree to which something extends; the size, length, or amount of something.
  • The degree to which something extends; the size, area, or length of something.
  • Point, level or limit to which something reaches
  • Range or space included in something
opinion

US /əˈpɪnjən/

UK /əˈpɪnjən/

  • other
  • A belief or judgment that rests on grounds insufficient to produce complete certainty.
  • A formal assessment or advice from an expert.
  • A formal assessment or advice by an expert.
  • A personal view or attitude.
  • noun
  • Court judge's statement why a decision was made
  • A person's thoughts on a topic
  • other
  • The collective attitude of the public or a significant segment of the public toward a particular issue.
influence

US / ˈɪnfluəns/

UK /'ɪnflʊəns/

  • noun
  • The power to affect what happens, to persuade etc.
  • A person or thing that affects someone or something in an important way.
  • verb
  • To affect or change something indirectly
  • other
  • To have an effect on the character, development, or behavior of someone or something.
  • To persuade someone to do something.
  • other
  • The ability to control or affect what happens
  • The power to have an effect on someone or something.

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