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  • The morning of October 9th, fragments of a Hamas missile land less than a mile outside of Ben Gurion Airport, Israel's main international airport.

  • On the ground, passengers ran for cover.

  • In the skies above, A Ryanair flight on approach diverted away.

  • And yet, in a matter of minutes, aircraft resumed taking off and landing at the airport, while the war continued.

  • Despite it being less than 40 miles from the front lines of Israel's war with Gaza, Ben Gurion airport has remained open throughout the conflict.

  • And while civil air spaces above war zones, like Ukraine, often remain closed from the moment war breaks out, Israel's civil airspace has continued to receive commercial traffic.

  • I think the key question here that everyone's asking is why haven't the Israelis closed their airspace?

  • And I think the answer is countries are always going to err on the side of keeping it open.

  • So how does Israel keep an airport open in a warzone?

  • And what are the risks to aircraft in the airspace?

  • Keeping airspace open can provide a vital corridor for Israel to allow people to leave, soldiers to return, and goods and supplies to continue entering the country during the conflict.

  • One of the steps the country has taken to try and protect those aircraft is to change the route they're approaching Ben Gurion from.

  • The main mitigation measure that we've taken is completely separating the routes from the area of the conflict.

  • The routes, basically, in and out of Israel are much northern than they are usually, going 10 miles south of Haifa.

  • According to Israel's Civil Aviation Authority,

  • the country's civil and military air traffic controllers also work very closely together and often sit in the same buildings and look at the same aerial picture.

  • And that allows them to coordinate on trying to ensure that missiles from the country's Iron Dome system don't impact civilian aircraft when they're intercepting Hamas missile.

  • It still leaves plenty of flexibility for the defense systems to plan their engagement, to plan their interception of a rocket.

  • On the ground, while Ben Gurion in airport can normally have over 10 aircraft waiting at its gates...

  • We've limited the number of aircraft that are loaded with passengers and with fuel, so you would see maximum six, normally four.

  • And when the aircraft are ready to depart, takeoff is as swift as possible, with no queuing on the runway.

  • Israel's Civil Aviation Authority says that part of the reason it's able to keep its airspace open is because it has remained open previously, through years of Hamas missile attacks.

  • So no one is doing anything new.

  • Civil Aviation doesn't like doing new stuff, not in general, and specifically not in conflict.

  • And that's why the country issued a notice to airlines, saying its airspace would remain open but that airlines should use caution,

  • a notice the FAA and EASA, its European equivalent, have also sent out.

  • Yet, despite this, the vast bulk of international carriers have paused flying to Tel Aviv.

  • While many airlines stopped flying to Tel Aviv the day Hamas launched its surprise attack, others continued to to fly for a few days more.

  • A British Airways flight actually turned back moments before landing, as air raid sirens were sounding in the area surrounding the airport.

  • British Airways has issued a statement, saying it's suspended all flights to Tel Aviv until further notice.

  • Some Arnos, even though their insurance allows these operations, they don't want it.

  • Again, understandable.

  • Even though the airspace remains open, airlines will have many questions to consider if they operate flights into the region.

  • How frequent is the rocket fire from Gaza?

  • How deep into Israel are rockets being launched?

  • Where are those Iron Dome intercepts taking place?

  • Matt Borie is Chief Intelligence Officer and one of the co-founders of Osprey Flight Solutions,

  • an aviation risk management company that advises the likes of America's TSA.

  • His job is to evaluate some of the worst-case scenarios, and he thinks that Israel's airspace should be more restricted.

  • The area where the conflict is affecting, which includes Northern Israel, Haifa, Tel Aviv, should be paused until the trajectory of this conflict becomes more clear.

  • Matt cautioned that, even though aircraft were being rerouted to approach over Haifa, there had still been recent surface-to-air missile, or SAM, activity in the region.

  • The IDF has confirmed they employed a conventional SAM system to shoot down a rocket launch from Gaza, near Haifa.

  • Footage of the impact later appeared on social media.

  • Why this is a concern is because now we're creating the conditions for a shoot-down.

  • Civil aviation flying in between areas where conflict activity is happening.

  • Israel says that when a missile is fired, its air traffic controllers can have over a minute and a half to maneuver aircraft out of the area,

  • and in that time, aircraft can cover around 10 miles.

  • While neither Hamas nor Israel is likely to intentionally target civilian aircraft,

  • according to Matt, there's still a risk that an aircraft could be shot down if it's misidentified as a missile or other threat,

  • which is exactly what happened when Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was shot down over eastern Ukraine by pro-Russia militia.

  • Weather caused this aircraft to deviate from its flight path, which led to the rebel group to interpret it as not a civilian airliner because it wasn't flying on the civilian airliner routes,

  • so Osprey has already told its clients that we assess the potential for miscalculation or misidentification in Israeli airspace to be likely in the near term under the current scenario.

  • Israel denies that misidentification is a major risk factor in its airspace.

  • There are technical limitations on some of the systems that, again, there is no possibility that an interceptor could target a civilian aircraft.

  • If anyone has a minimal knowledge in aviation, a screen showing a drone and a civilian aircraft and a fighter jet looks very, very different.

  • And the MA-17 and other tragic accidents that happened have a very, very different background, and none of it is relevant in this conflict.

  • While the situation in Israel is already complex, the addition of outside forces, like Syria and Hezbollah,

  • who have already engaged in limited artillery exchanges with Israel, could complicate things further.

  • Do you trust Hezbollah will not make a mistake on firing on a target over northern Israel?

  • Israel, however, says that it is monitoring risks from all sides.

  • We're monitoring very, very closely and looking at the risk very carefully, monitoring the situation in Lebanon, monitoring the situation in Syria.

  • I can assure you that, if we see many rockets launched towards Ben Gurion, we will freeze traffic in Ben Gurion, and traffic will go to Eilat Ramon.

  • As the situation in the skies above Israel evolves, its aviation authority maintains that it will remain accountable, whatever happens.

  • We monitor the situation closely.

  • We listen to intel.

  • We see ourselves as accountable.

  • And we look at this role very, very seriously.

The morning of October 9th, fragments of a Hamas missile land less than a mile outside of Ben Gurion Airport, Israel's main international airport.

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