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  • The year is 1953.

  • The US purchases this from Bell Labs...

  • the first commercial silicon solar cell.

  • But these first solar cells are not exactly efficient.

  • If you were to put them on your roof and try to generate electricity,

  • it would cost you about $300,000 a month.

  • Fast-forward 70 years, and that cost has come down.

  • Way down.

  • Solar energy is the cheapest it's ever been, nearly 90% cheaper than it was just in 2009.

  • In a lot of places,

  • it is now cheaper to generate electricity with solar than with coal, natural gas, or nuclear power.

  • This is an unqualified success story.

  • And if we can take the right lessons from it,

  • this story can help us create and deploy all the other technology we will need to keep our planet livable.

  • They just became cheap so quickly.

  • It's really an amazing breakthrough that is going to come to define the 21st century.

  • So how did solar energy go from prohibitively expensive to cheaper than fossil fuels?

  • "We're in an energy crisis now."

  • In the 1970s, with the oil crisis,

  • there was a really big push on research and development for alternative energy.

  • "Today, in directly harnessing the power of the sun,

  • we're taking the energy that God gave us

  • and using it to replace our dwindling supplies of fossil fuels."

  • With Project Independence, as it was called,

  • the US federal government allotted more than $8 billion to solar research and development.

  • That really made a huge difference and probably doubled the efficiency of the cells.

  • It was a guy named Paul Maycock, who came from Texas Instruments.

  • Oh, like the calculators?

  • Yeah, working on calculators, and he found for calculators...

  • the more they built, the cheaper the calculators got.

  • And he said, same thing for solar.

  • If we build more, the cost will come down.

  • But before the US could really test Maycock's idea,

  • President Reagan canceled Project Independence.

  • Fortunately, two countries were ready to step in and put Maycock's hypothesis to the test.

  • Like the US, Japan had been hit hard by the oil crisis in the 70s.

  • They started funding solar research and development around the same time,

  • and soon they developed solar cells small and powerful enough to run watches, calculators, and toys.

  • Trivial, in terms of the global energy system...

  • but crucial in that large companies were now becoming interested in solar

  • and crucially, figuring out how to construct solar at really low, low cost.

  • That know-how came in handy when the Japanese government announced a major subsidy for rooftop solar in the mid-90s.

  • But the global market for solar technology was still relatively small.

  • Until Germany stepped in and truly changed the game.

  • The most important policy on this whole chain, if I had to pick one,

  • it would be the German feed-in tariff.

  • Feed-in tariffs,

  • which was basically a program that deployed solar at scale.

  • Here's how it worked.

  • Starting in 2000, the German government basically said to power companies...

  • Hey, if you can start producing renewable energy, we will buy it from you.

  • we will buy it from you.

  • We promise, for double the market price and we will keep paying you at that rate for the next 20 years.

  • And so, for developers of solar projects in Germany, all of a sudden...

  • it became like a no-brainer to do this,

  • even though Germany is not the sunniest place in the world.

  • Companies responded to the incentives by building solar farms like this one.

  • In one year, the installations for solar went up by a factor of 4 and then it just grew.

  • The more panels they produced, the cheaper it got to generate electricity with solar.

  • Then, another country picked up the baton,

  • and made solar cheaper than even Maycock could have imagined.

  • So it really starts with Deng Xiaoping in the 1980s,

  • and had this plan for a thousand Chinese students to go abroad and come back, and see what they came back with.

  • One group of students went to the University of New South Wales in Australia,

  • where they worked with a team that was producing some of the most efficient solar cells in the world.

  • After a few years, one of those students went back to China...

  • and opened up the country's first commercial solar manufacturer, Suntech, in 2002.

  • With that new German law in place, the company had so much success selling solar panels to Germany.

  • Suntech success attracted competitors, which helped drive down prices,

  • in part because all of this demand inspired Chinese manufacturers to produce at an unprecedented scale.

  • Policymakers around the world noticed the falling prices and wrote laws to create new markets in their countries,

  • including the United States.

  • The United States passed an important law.

  • It's called the Energy Policy Act 2005.

  • And buried deep within that law was an investment tax credit.

  • Sounds kind of boring,

  • but it turns out it was absolutely critical to deploying solar

  • because what it said was that

  • if you put out a new solar project, you can get 30% of those costs back for a tax credit.

  • This sparked a phenomenon called solar leasing,

  • where companies would look for places to put solar

  • so that they could reduce the amount they owed the federal government in taxes.

  • Other policies helped create markets for solar modules in Spain, Italy, and crucially, in China.

  • The Chinese devised their own subsidy program that was modeled on the German one

  • where you get a guaranteed price.

  • By 2011, China was not only the biggest producer of solar

  • but the biggest producer of solar electricity.

  • In the course of a single lifetime,

  • solar energy has transformed from a niche technology

  • to the cheapest way to bring clean, reliable power to billions of people around the world.

  • But the markets that brought us these lower prices didn't just magically appear by some invisible hand.

  • Political leaders in countries all over the world created these markets,

  • then subsidized them for decades to the tune of billions of dollars.

  • By investing that money,

  • you got the solar to come down in costs to the point where you don't need to subsidize it anymore.

  • We're doing that on purpose with things like batteries and electric vehicles.

  • We're doing that with things like heat pumps.

  • Solar provided us with a playbook for how to do that for other technologies.

The year is 1953.

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