Subtitles section Play video Print subtitles COMPANY HIS TOP CLOUD PLAY FOR 2023 CALLING IT A, QUOTE, MASSIVE OPPORTUNITY. WEDBUSH STAR ANALYST DAN IVES JOINS US AT POST NINE. GOOD TO HAVE YOU HERE. HERE IS THE SITUATION, OKAY. I'VE GOT TWO THINGS GOING ON I GOT DAN IVES, RIGHT, THE STAR ANALYST THAT WE SAY, SUGGESTING THAT THIS STOCK IS STILL UNDER APPRECIATED AS AN OPPORTUNITY THAT IT IS AN OUTPERFORM, BUT THEN I GOT THE COMPANY'S CEO HIMSELF, SATYA NADELLA, WHO A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO SAID THE NEXT TWO YEARS ARE GOING TO BE TOUGH. IVES HAS AN OUTPERFORM NADELLA HAS A HOLD WHY SHOULD I LISTEN TO IVES AND NOT NADELLA? >> YEAH, AND NADELLA OBVIOUSLY HALL OF FAME CEO AND PART OF OUR BILLISH BULLISH THESIS ON MICROSOFT. WHAT IS INTERESTING TO ME IN TERMS OF ALL OF OUR CHECKS OVER THE LAST WEEK, WE'RE ONLY SEEING ABOUT 6% TO 7% OF DEALS REALLY PUSH OR GET DOWNSIZED AND BY LOOK AT THE LAST QUARTER, 3% TO 4% IN MY VIEW THIS BECOMES MORE AND MORE OF A CLOUD PLAY, LESS OF A PC CALL NONCLAUDOUD AS WE GO IN NEXT YEAR. I VIEW THIS AS A SIGNIFICANT RISK REWARD HIRE. >> THE REASON INVESTORS HAVE AGREED WITH YOU, THEY SAID IT IS A CLOUD PLAY, FOR AZURE. BY VIRTUE OF THE FACT THEY'RE WILLING TO PAY A HIGH PREMIUM VALUATION TO THE MARKET FOR THIS WHOLE TIME BUT NOW AZURE GROWTH IS SLOWING. WHY SHOULD I PAY ANYWHERE CLOSE TO A MULTIPLE I WAS PAYING BEFORE AND NOW I KNOW THE MULTIPLE HAS COME IN, BUT YOU CAN SAY IT IS EXPENSIVE RELATIVE TO WHERE THE MARKET IS. >> IT IS A GREAT DEBATE. MY VIEW IS IF THIS IS ULTIMATELY AZURE GROWTH THAT WE CAN SEE ABOVE 30% IN LOW SINGLE DIGIT IT SPENDING ENVIRONMENT WHAT I BELIEVE IS STILL IF YOU LOOK AT THE AVERAGE MICROSOFT INSTALL BASE, WE'RE STILL FOUR OF EVERY TEN OF SIGNIFICANT MOVE TO THE CLOUD, MOST OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD, NOT BEHIND. AND ALSO, MORE AND MORE AGGRESSIVE, LOOK AT OPEN AI, MORE OF THESE AGGRESSIVE BETS, ACTIVISION, NOT A COMPANY THAT IS GOING TO THE RIGHT LANE. >> BUT WHEN THE CEO HIMSELF SAID WHAT HE DID, YOU WEREN'T MOVED BY THAT AT ALL IN. >> NADELLA IS A TACTICIAN, THE GOLD STANDARD IN MY OPINION. AND WHAT I THINK HE'S DOING, WHICH IS IMPORTANT, LAY THE GROUND WORK FOR A TOUGHER ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW YEARS. BUT IN REDMOND IN THE WALLS OF REDMOND, THIS IS NOT A COMPANY THAT IS ACTING DEFENSIVE SO NADELLA IS TALKING ABOUT THAT, BUT ULTIMATELY IN TERMS OF THE PLAYBOOK, THEY'RE GOING ON THE OFFENSE, NOT JUST IN TERMS OF M & A, BUT FROM A CLOUD PERSPECTIVE, THEY'RE GOING TO GET MORE SHARE VERSUS AMAZON AND SOME OF THE COMPETITORS. >> WHAT ABOUT THIS SAID $10 BILLION INVESTMENT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT. >> I LOVE IT, IT IS A SMART STRATEGIC POKER MOVE IN MY OPINION, YOU GO BACK TO THE LATE 90s, ANTITRUST, UNCERTAIN MACRO, THEY PEELED BACK HERE YOU WANT TO GO AGGRESSIVE IN ONE OF THE BEST MOST INNOVATIVE AI TECHNOLOGIES OUT THERE. THEY ALREADY INVESTED IN IT. TAKE A STEP BACK NOW I BELIEVE AI IS NADELLA, MICROSOFT, REDMOND. >> DO YOU THINK THAT, WE REFERENCED THIS SOME 43 OR 44 MINUTES AGO, ABOUT THE LAGGARDS OF '22 EMERGING IN THE BEGINNING OF 2023 AS SOME OF THE WINNERS YOU THINK THAT'S LEGIT FOR SOME OF THE COMPANIES LIKE MICROSOFT, SALESFORCE, FOR EXAMPLE, LOSERS THAT ARE WINNERS RIGHT NOW DOES THAT HAVE SOME KIND OF STAYING POWER OR THAT A MEAN REVERSION, SHORT-LIVED, WHAT IS YOUR VIEW? >> I THINK IT IS A GREAT POINT IN TERMS OF THE ENTERPRISE YOU LOOK AT ENTERPRISE CLOUD THAT IS WHERE I BELIEVE IT GOING TO BE A LOT MORE RESILIENT IN THE SPENDING ENVIRONMENT TALKING TO INVESTORS EVERY DAY, IN 2023, EVERYONE IS, OKAY, WHERE ARE THE NUMBERS I CAN STRESS TEST? NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN, BUT A LOT IS BAKED INTO VALUATION WHERE I BELIEVE THE GROWTH IS GOING TO BE, CONSUMER, DIGITAL, OTHER AREAS, YOU CAN HAVE ANOTHER LEG DOWN THAT'S WHY I THINK IN TERMS OF WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN MICROSOFT, LOOK AT SALESFORCE AND BENIOFF, THOSE ARE TWO OF OUR TOP PICKS, RISK REWARD. >> TOM LEE YESTERDAY, I THINK YESTERDAY, TOLD ME SITTING WHERE YOU ARE, HE THINKS FAANG COULD BE UP 50%. I NEAR FELL OUT OF MY CHAIR. IS THAT SOMETHING ON YOUR RADAR TOO? ARE WE GOING TO HAVE A BIG BOUNCEBACK FOR FAANG >> I THINK IT IS GOING TO BE A MASSIVE BOUNCEBACK AND TECH STOCKS OVERALL UP 20% AND BIG TECH UP ABOVE THAT BECAUSE IT IS MY VIEW THAT FUNDAMENTALS ARE GOING TO HOLD UP BETTER THAN BEING BAKED IN, WHISPER NUMBERS 10% TO 15% BELOW THE STREET. YOU LOOK IF YOU LOOK AT OVERALL TECH, I BELIEVE NOW IT IS UNDEROWNED AS I'VE SEEN TECH, GOING BACK TO 2009 AND MAYBE 2002. >> BETTER HOPE EARPINEARNINGS WE DECENT WHAT IF THE COMMENTARY IS DOUR LIKE NADELLA WAS. >> IF IT IS JUST DOWNRIGHT DISASTER, HORRIFIC, OKAY, THAT'S NOT BAKED INTO -- THEY CUT GUIDANCE 15%, 20%. RIGHT NOW, YOU START TOO HAVE SOME SORT OF MODEST EXPECTATIONS WITH SOME DARKENING AND FX PLAYS AN ISSUE, WE SIT HERE IN EARLY TO MID-FEBRUARY BEING, LIKE, BIG TECH BOUNCE 15% THROUG
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