Right now, I'm thinking "Cool Dad".

Wyoming congresswoman, Liz Cheney, thinks that if the GOP nominates Donald Trump for president again in 2024, it will be the end of the Republican Party,

or at least the end of the Republican party as we currently think of it.

Here's Cheney.

I think that the party has either got to come back from where we are right now, which is a very dangerous and toxic place,

or the party will splinter and there will be a new conservative party that rises.

Which is a big, big deal

After all, we've had a two-party dynamic in this country for a very long time.

So the notion that one of the two major parties would splinter into two is something that would, well, make history.

Cheney was also asked about the prospect of running for president herself in 2024 as part of a Stop Trump effort.

Here's what she said.

We will do whatever it takes. As I said, he will not be the President (of the) United States again.

The question then becomes whether Cheney is, well, right.

Let's start that conversation here.

There is, without question, a vocal anti-Trump wing within the Republican party - Cheney, the vice chair of the January 6th committee is perhaps the best known of that group.

But there are, without question, more members of it, including Illinois congressman Adam Kinzinger, Maryland Governor Larry Hogan and a few other high-profile names.

What's harder to tell is how big of a group that actually is. The answer to that question sort of depends on which poll you look at when.

So there's a recent New York times Siena College poll that showed that just one in ten Republicans viewed Trump either somewhat or very unfavorably.

By contrast, a majority, 56% in that same poll said they had a very favorable impression of the former president.

Then there's an AP-Norc poll which offers a slightly more optimistic view for the likes of Cheney.

Roughly six in ten, 57% of Republicans in that poll said that they wanted Trump to run again for president in 2024 while 43% said they didn't want a third Trump presidential bid.

Of course, saying that you don't want Trump to run again for president is different than believing that a new party should be formed to accommodate those Republicans who cannot and will not support Trump.

Polling aside, the numbers suggest that Cheney's splinter party would face pretty long odds.

So Cheney lost the Republican primary for Wyoming's sole House seat badly to a Trump-backed candidate.

Kinzinger is retiring from Congress, but would have likely lost had he decided to run again.

Of the other eight House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump for his role in the January 6, 2021 attack, six more have either retired or lost their primary. Six of those eight.

In the Senate, Trump is targeting Alaska Republican senator Lisa Murkowski, who also happens to be one of the seven Senate Republicans who voted to convict him (and) who is also on the ballot this November.

And while there were exceptions, the 2022 primary season, broadly speaking, affirmed Trump's lasting power within the party.

Trump-backed candidates won senate primaries in Pennsylvania, in Arizona, in Georgia, Ohio, and North Carolina.

By the way, in that Ohio waste, J.D. Vance, the Republican Senate nominee, Trump said this of Vance at a rally last month.

"J.D. is kissing my ass, he wants my support so bad."

Trump's preferred candidates also won Republican primaries for governor in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

And even in Maryland, a Trump-backed candidate beat Hogan's preferred candidate.

It's not too much to say that Trump is trying to purge the Republican party right now of dissenting voices.

It's also not too much to say that it is working.

Trump's record of crushing opposition has led Republican leaders, most notably House Minority leader Kevin McCarthy to fall in line, staying silent or acquiescing to his false claims about the 2020 election.

And there are few data points to suggest that a viable, viable being the key word, new Conservative Party could emerge or at least emerge quickly if Trump does run and win the Republican nomination come 2024.

There are voices in pockets of opposition, yes.

But it's also beyond debate that that group is less powerful today than it was a year ago or two years ago,

which isn't to say that a rival third party organized around conservative principles couldn't emerge at some point down the line.

It could, especially if trump loses in 2024 relegating Republicans to another four years out of White House power.

But the fact remains that as of today, there is scant evidence that there's a robust group of anti-Trump or pro-conservative voices that would form the core of another party in opposition to the current edition of the GOP.

And that is the point.

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