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  • In July 2012, the European Central Bank's then-president Mario Draghi gave a speech

  • that is now credited with saving the euro.

  • The ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro,

  • and believe me, it will be enough.

  • Greece was in the middle of a debt crisis,

  • and economic instability was spreading to other parts of the euro zone.

  • The ECB, the central bank for the countries that have adopted the euro, had to act.

  • Ten years later, the euro and the euro zone are still intact.

  • But one core issue at the heart of the crisis still remains.

  • In fact, it rears its head every time the region comes under economic pressure.

  • In 1999, 11 countries came together to use one single currency: the euro.

  • As of 2022, the Euro area boasts 19 members.

  • And while all the countries in the euro zone have one currency and one central bank setting interest rates,

  • it's up to their national governments to set their fiscal agendas for the year.

  • This means making big decisions around taxation and spending.

  • Unsurprisingly, 19 diverse nations are not going to be in total lockstep on those decisions.

  • Take a look at their debt levels, for example.

  • A country's debt-to-GDP ratio is a metric that compares a country's public debt

  • to its total outputor Gross Domestic Product.

  • And the range across the euro area is huge.

  • Estonia, for example, has a debt-to-GDP ratio of about 17%.

  • Germany's is at 67%.

  • Italy's is at more than 150%.

  • And Greece, even to this day, has a debt-to-GDP ratio of almost 190%.

  • When countries want to raise money from international investors, they issue bonds.

  • This is kind of like a country handing outIOUs,” which pay interest, in exchange

  • for investment that they can then use to fund government projects, for example.

  • Bonds are a well-established part of the financial market.

  • So why should we care if one country has more debt than another?

  • Well, if a country is sitting on a lot of debt, this means every year,

  • a big chunk of its financial commitments will go towards servicing that debt

  • or paying interest to whoever owns it.

  • The higher the debt load, the more investors worry every time yields go up.

  • A bond yield is how much an investor earns from holding bonds.

  • While bonds all have a set coupon ratethe term for a bond's fixed interest payments

  • – a bond can be bought for more or less than its face value.

  • This will affect the total yield of the bond.

  • For example, a bond bought at a lower price will have a higher yield

  • than a bond with the same coupon bought at a higher price.

  • Bond prices often fluctuate based on credit ratings.

  • If a bond is seen as investment grade, you pay more.

  • If it's seen as 'junk', you pay less.

  • So as the price of a bond goes up, its yield goes down and vice versa.

  • Angel Ubide is an expert on finance and European affairs.

  • He explained what this means for the euro zone.

  • Two identical firms or households have differing financial conditions, or funding conditions,

  • just as result of the country they are located in.

  • So, in that sense, your passport becomes a major determinant of your funding conditions.

  • Of course, there should be differences, but when the differences are very big,

  • then we can say that monetary policy has been fragmented.

  • Vitor Constancio was vice president of the ECB in 2012, during the European debt crisis.

  • With monetary union like the one we have, the national debt markets are sort of demoted

  • to regional markets and then the countries themselves can't issue their own currency.

  • so that's a structural reason that makes national debt more bound to become vulnerable

  • and under pressure of markets.

  • Basically what you're saying is the reason fragmentation exists is because the euro zone

  • by design is a monetary union, it is not a fiscal union.

  • Yes, basically it's that.

  • Let's return to the Greece crisis to understand how this can turn into a problem.

  • After it emerged that Greece's reported budget deficit had been grossly underrepresented,

  • there was concern that its government would stop making repayments on its debt.

  • This scared investors.

  • So, they started placing a higher premium on owning bonds issued by the country,

  • and Greek bond yields shot up, at one point touching 30%.

  • This effectively locked the country out of the borrowing market.

  • No investors wanted to touch the bonds out of fear they wouldn't get all their money back.

  • A restructuring of Greek sovereign debt took place in 2012, which saw private investors

  • take a 50% haircut in the value of the bonds they owned.

  • It also saw the country enter into a very strict austerity program under the supervision

  • of the EU, IMF and the ECB to get its public finances in order.

  • The Greek crisis was very importantnot just because obviously the tremendous economic

  • damage to Greecebut also because it created this sort of feeling in the euro zone

  • that all of the crises were fiscal, and everything had to be solved from a fiscal standpoint.

  • But there was also another issue, that famous words between (Nicolas) Sarkozy and Angela Merkel

  • that 'every resolution would require a bail in.'

  • It would require private investors participate in the resolution.

  • So that created this environment into which every deterioration of the fiscal outlook

  • made the investors believe there was going to be a restructuring

  • that was forced by the rescue or the support.

  • Which is why this crisis didn't end with Greece.

  • Investors were quick to price contagion to other countries like Italy and Spain,

  • where the fundamentals had not changed significantly.

  • And Europe's bond yields, which had been similar since the Euro was introduced, began to diverge.

  • Investors had stopped seeing the Eurozone as one cohesive bloc,

  • but instead a group of disparate countries with very different financials.

  • In short, the Eurozone started to look fragmented.

  • This is when Draghi's “Whatever it Takesspeech came in.

  • After this speech, the ECB introduced a new tool called Outright Monetary Transactions or OMT.

  • It would allow the central bank to purchase an unlimited amount of government bonds

  • of indebted nations, subject to stringent conditions.

  • The OMT tool itself has never been used.

  • But the existence of it was enough to bring spreads down because investors felt comforted

  • that central bank support would arrive.

  • For many, this was a turning point.

  • What do you think the consequences would have been if the ECB had not acted in such a way then?

  • Well, I don't want to speculate about that too much but of course the pressure would continue.

  • Yields of Spain and Italy were very high; 7-8% and no justification really and so this fragmentation

  • would perhaps continue and markets thought, apparently, that they could force

  • a restructuring also of Italian, Spanish, Portuguese debt.

  • Well, it didn't happen because we intervened and at that stage, we understood that this

  • was a sort of domino. because after Italy, Spain it could go on to France and so on.

  • Ten years on in 2022, fragmentation risks in the Eurozone started rising again.

  • This time, the ECB introduced another tool, called the Transmission Protection Instrument or TPI,

  • which could also be used to help stabilize bond markets if needed.

  • One other difference is this time around, EU nations have moved a little closer towards

  • joint bond issuance. That takes the pressure off individual countries

  • in times of need because it doesn't add to their national debt pile.

  • The Covid-19 pandemic brought about the introduction of a new large common instrument

  • with the launch of the Next Generation EU Funds, a 750-billion-euro package financed and

  • distributed at the EU level, not the national level.

  • Some embryonic elements of the fiscal union are now being born.

  • Obviously there are some macroeconomic pressures at play right now,

  • but in terms of the bloc itself, how resilient is it compared to previous episodes in history?

  • Well there is really no comparison, the situation is much stronger now.

  • Starting of course with the banking sector which is quite well capitalised and robust,

  • and went through the covid crisis showing that it kept its robustness.

  • we had to prove that Europe creates the necessary backstops

  • when the situation becomes too acute or dangerous.

  • And I am sure that markets will not attempt to bet against the euro area in the way

  • they did before because it has been shown that the euro area reacts

  • and when the situation becomes acute, provides the backstop.

In July 2012, the European Central Bank's then-president Mario Draghi gave a speech

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