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  • The invention of flight has been one of the most profound technologies in

  • history. And for the past century it has functioned pretty much the same

  • way. But that could all change.

  • The advent of lithium ion batteries and electric propulsion technologies

  • is igniting a revolution in transportation.

  • Everything from cars to trucks and buses are going electric.

  • But what about planes?

  • We call this the third revolution in aviation.

  • The first was the piston engine that enabled the Wright brothers to fly

  • their first flight. The second was the jet engine, which only really was

  • applied to larger planes.

  • And we think the third revolution is electric propulsion.

  • CO2 emissions and the environmental impact they pose has moved to the

  • forefront of public attention and has been one of the driving forces in

  • leading electric vehicle adoption.

  • The aviation industry is one of the fastest growing sources of greenhouse

  • gas emissions. And unlike cars, aviation is often excluded from national

  • climate plans because it operates across borders.

  • Between flight and commercial, shipping constitutes about 5 percent of our

  • total CO2 emissions per year.

  • And these are some of the hardest CO2 to decarbonize.

  • Aircraft emissions are a real serious problem.

  • It's projected to be up to 25 percent of the entire global carbon budget

  • to stay below 1.5

  • degrees C.

  • According to a 2018 report on CO2 emissions from commercial aviation,

  • there was a 32 percent increase in emissions over the five years leading

  • up to the study. And with the FAA estimating the number of airline

  • passengers in the U.S.

  • will surpass one 1.28

  • billion by 2038, planes will be a big source of pollution for years to

  • come. Jet fuel is also one of the biggest operating costs for airlines,

  • and electric motors have fewer parts to repair and maintain, making them a

  • more economical option as well.

  • When you look at a jet engine, there's thousands of moving parts.

  • A turboprop has 7,000 to 10,000 moving parts.

  • And you have to every 3,000 hours spend hundreds of thousands of dollars

  • and a lot of time to overhaul them.

  • There's one moving part in an electric motor in a plane.

  • An electric propulsion system can reduce cost of ownership or cost of

  • operation dramatically.

  • Orders of magnitude 40, 50, 60, 70%.

  • But not only do you have lower maintenance costs, but you also have lower

  • costs in terms of actually providing the energy required to go from one

  • location to another.

  • With so many benefits, why is it we have yet to see the electric vehicle

  • movement come to aerospace?

  • Some fundamental problem with electric aircraft has always been that a

  • good lithium ion battery cell has one fortieth of the energy content of

  • the equivalent weight of jet fuel.

  • And so if you were to take an existing airplane and you take out all the

  • fuel and you take out the engines and the fuel systems and replace those

  • with only batteries, then you would only fly one twentieth as far.

  • While the electrification of aviation has been slow to start, the

  • technology is starting to look more feasible.

  • So there's been a significant enough revolution and improvement in the

  • performance of batteries, which the automotive industry is really driving.

  • It is extremely promising that one of these battery technologies can be

  • scaled up for electric flight.

  • So the real question is, is not when will we have electric airplanes?

  • It's when will the time come where we can have electric airplanes that fly

  • far enough to then start replacing conventionally fueled air transport?

  • The first area to be serviced with electric aircraft will be short

  • regional flights. But battery electric flight is still in early

  • development. Some of the planes that have flown have been demonstrated.

  • They're basically all battery.

  • They're just carrying their pilot.

  • And they actually don't even have the weight to carry passengers right

  • now. But the batteries are going to improve.

  • Pipistrel is one of the few all electric plane manufacturers actually

  • building and flying today.

  • Because of limited range and capacity, they're primarily used as trainer

  • aircraft. Recently, Harbour Air in Vancouver, Canada, partnered with

  • MagniX to take its fleet of seaplanes all electric.

  • It just completed its first successful flight and is beginning the

  • certification and approval process.

  • Israeli startup Eviation Aircraft showed off its all electric nine-seat

  • aircraft in summer 2019 at the Paris Air Show.

  • The company claims the plane will be capable of flying up to 650 miles and

  • that customers have placed more than 150 orders.

  • The startup hopes to begin testing in 2020.

  • There's companies out there, like Bye Aerospace and Pipistrel, that are

  • doing, I think, amazing things in the light sport and the trainer aircraft

  • market, where they could go straight to electric with those vehicles and

  • the cost of ownership and the operational cost benefits are really, really

  • compelling. Until battery tech improves, hybrid electric aircraft is what

  • will be utilized for larger capacity flights going longer distances.

  • A hybrid electric aircraft would be an aircraft that would leverage an

  • electric motor and electric propulsion in addition to the traditional fuel

  • sources that we have today.

  • So one can imagine, just like you would have a hybrid electric car, you

  • could have a hybrid electric aircraft.

  • So what we've done is we've taken a very, very successful Honeywell

  • helicopter engine and we've mounted it with a special gearbox to two of

  • our ultra efficient generators.

  • So in total, this machine generates 400 kilowatts of power, which is

  • enough to power 40 homes at one time.

  • Ampaire is one startup working on and testing hybrid electric aircraft.

  • The first plane that Ampaire flew is our electric eel, and that's a six

  • seat aircraft, the largest hybrid electric aircraft that's ever flown.

  • We're already building our second copy of that aircraft, and it's going to

  • be the first ever to fly on an actual commercial route demoing daily

  • operations in Hawaii.

  • The test flights will begin next year in partnership with Mokulele

  • Airlines, flying on a route based out of Maui.

  • This project is a stepping stone for worldwide adoption of electric

  • aircraft. So we've been working in programs from everywhere like Norway,

  • where Norway is actually aiming to have all flights under 90 minutes go

  • electric or hybrid electric by 2040.

  • And you're looking at the U.K.,

  • Scotland initiatives going on right now to have electric and hybrid

  • electric aircraft. Airlines historically have struggled to make money on

  • shorter regional flights, but hybrid planes could change that.

  • In a hybrid, we're reducing fuel burn by up to 75 percent.

  • That is transformational for the economics of airlines.

  • There's this whole segment of the market, about 40 billion dollars of

  • revenue that has now been eliminated from airlines' balance sheets because

  • they just couldn't fly those routes profitably.

  • We're going to enable them to fly those routes again.

  • Utilizing hybrid engines in regional aircraft could also make flight more

  • common in daily life.

  • I think everybody knows how expensive it is to fly regionally.

  • And part of the reason that this is the case is that small turbine engines

  • are very inefficient.

  • Electricity from renewable sources can be very cheap.

  • And in parts of the country it's ridiculously cheap, like the Pacific

  • Northwest, compared to jet fuel flying will be will be a bargain.

  • It's also going to enable is things like regional commuting that you have

  • these super-commuters in places like Los Angeles and the Bay Area that are

  • going to be able to do things like fly daily, air-pooling.

  • So when could we see larger commercial airliners go electric?

  • It could be some time.

  • I think there's a lot of years, if not decades, before hybrid electric and

  • fully electric propulsion is going to be viable in that space.

  • And it's unknown when battery technology will be sufficient for those

  • longer missions. In the take-off, the amount of power that is required is

  • specifically related to its weight.

  • Even to have a small passenger plane, maybe three or four people, go for

  • several hundred miles, you need a battery that is two to three times more

  • powerful than it is today.

  • It's more likely that these larger aircraft will convert to hybrid

  • technology until batteries are capable of supporting longer flights.

  • When you talk to a Boeing or you talk to an Airbus about a really big

  • airplane, the conversations in the present tend to be around how do you

  • make the airplane more electric versus fully electric?

  • And that does take loads off of the engines and help reduce the fuel burn

  • of those aircraft and make those aircraft more efficient.

  • Electric technology also opens up a host of new efficient designs for

  • future aircraft. There's kind of a cascade of benefits.

  • You produce less heat, so it's easier to cool your system and your cooling

  • drag goes down. You can design the plane differently.

  • The electric motors are tiny compared to an engine.

  • You can put them in different places.

  • So it just opens up an entire new design space.

  • You compare the amount of energy per weight that you could put in a

  • battery versus amount of energy per weight that's in a gallon of gasoline,

  • it's enormously different.

  • And what that forces you to do is to design very, very efficient

  • airplanes. These efficiencies in combination with the advantages of

  • electric propulsion, enable an entirely new type of flight: air taxis or

  • urban air mobility.

  • Urban air mobility is really a new mode of transportation.

  • I would actually call it a new era in aviation.

  • And that revolution is really to overcome the traffic problem we're seeing

  • around big cities. Perhaps you're 30 miles away from your closest airport.

  • So you could potentially get into one of these urban air mobility vehicles

  • and fly that short distance that might take you an hour in traffic, but

  • maybe fifteen minutes in one of these urban air mobility vehicles.

  • This new segment of transportation has attracted the attention of Uber,

  • which is hoping to bring its experience as a rideshare company to flight.

  • We know that congestion is getting worse and there's limits to what you

  • can do on the ground. Let's move transportation out of the 2D grid into

  • the third dimension.

  • Uber is creating the technology that will help run the logistical

  • operations of such a service and partnering with manufacturers to provide

  • the aircraft. When you select Uber Air, we'll get you a car.

  • You'll take that to the sky port.

  • We'll walk you through the seamless, minimal time transition into the

  • aircraft, which will then take off fly to the closest remote skyport to

  • your destination, where a car will meet you just in time for you to get to

  • your final destination. Urban air mobility could surpass ground-based

  • services in investor interest and funding.

  • Morgan Stanley estimates the market could reach $1.5

  • trillion by 2040.

  • The evolution has been like nothing I've ever seen.

  • I've been in aerospace for decades and there's been an influx of capital

  • at each end of the value chain, from the vehicle manufacturers to the

  • technology to the infrastructure to the regulatory environment.

  • Hundreds of startups have recently entered the space, all working to

  • develop their own aircraft.

  • Vahana is developing a short range vertical takeoff and landing vehicle

  • funded by Airbus. Joby Aviation is backed by JetBlue Airways and Google's

  • Larry Page is an investor in two startups as well.

  • Traditionally, only a few hundred planes are manufactured a year.

  • The advent of urban air mobility could change that and have a big impact

  • on the automotive industry.

  • The volumes are gonna be like nothing we've ever seen.

  • In a traditional aerospace market, five hundred airplanes a year, six

  • hundred airplanes a year, those are a record-setting numbers of airplanes

  • and for urban air mobility, could be tens of thousands of vehicles per

  • year. And quite frankly, the traditional aerospace industry isn't equipped

  • to support those volumes.

  • Anticipating this convergence of aerospace and automotive led Honeywell to

  • partner with Denso, one of the world's largest automotive suppliers.

  • We talk about urban air mobility, not as a replacement for an airplane,

  • but as a replacement for a car.

  • And so you have a lot of automotive companies that are very, very

  • interested in participating in the market.

  • We build millions of motors and inverters.

  • And when we bring that kind of technology and manufacturing know-how to

  • our aerospace customers, it's seen as really, really monumental because

  • they are used to building in such low quantities.

  • Air taxis are only just starting to enter testing.

  • But how soon could we potentially see them out in the world?

  • We do see some urban air mobility operations using conventional

  • helicopters today. But when are we going to actually see these electric

  • vertical take-off and landing vehicles?

  • My best guess would be as the technology develops, we'll be most likely in

  • the 2035, 2030+ timeframe.

  • We've said publicly that we think that 2023 is an achievable date for

  • launch of a real commercial service.

  • It'll be a handful of vehicles starting out on key routes.

  • It's going to start at a price point that's a little bit more premium.

  • But before air taxis or fully electric planes can be a reality, batteries

  • still need to improve.

  • If we want a small air taxi to fly for, say, five hundred miles, that will

  • require a battery that has more than double the energy density of today's

  • electric vehicle batteries.

  • Another roadblock is ensuring it will be safe and reliable under heavy

  • use. There are 200,000 planes taking off and landing every day.

  • So the reliability of a battery powered plane has to be very high.

  • As the technology improves, they'll be entering an industry built around

  • heavy regulation. Aircraft manufacturing and systems are required to

  • undergo intense certification to ensure reliability and safety.

  • This is no longer dad's little Cessna 172.

  • This is a vehicle that needs that reliability and that safety to move

  • people who are expecting that same experience that they would get in a 737

  • in a small vehicle. Not to mention the logistical obstacles of navigating

  • the crowded airspace. As more flight technologies come to market, there

  • will be more aircraft in the skies than ever before.

  • Think about hundreds or even thousands of these vehicles flying around.

  • They have to stay away from all the other traffic that's flying in the

  • space. So not only will we have to ensure safe operations for the

  • passengers on board, but also for off nominal cases, ensuring the safety

  • of the folks that are on the ground.

  • And with urban air mobility emerging as a new field in aviation, a whole

  • new set of research questions and processes need to be developed between

  • the FAA and vehicle partners.

  • To address these challenge, NASA has created The Grand Challenge.

  • The Grand Challenges is focused on providing an ecosystem or a proving

  • ground to enable not only NASA, but also the FAA, vehicle industry

  • partners and airspace industry partners to come together to really

  • understand the key questions of what will be required to enable urban air

  • mobility operations.

  • The hope is that together they can outline safety certifications,

  • regulation and integration into the national airspace and urban

  • environments. Seeing an electric plane as a prototype is quite far from a

  • mass produced one.

  • Unless there is a significant policy shift to put, for example, a cost on

  • carbon emissions, battery based planes will have to compete also with jet

  • fuel based planes and currently the economics do not work.

  • As planes progress toward electric technology, we should expect it to

  • follow a very similar path to what we saw in the automobile industry.

  • Where you at one point were talking about small vehicles like a Nissan

  • Leaf, now you're talking about electrifying entire buses.

  • And I think in aerospace or in flying vehicles, we're going to see sort of

  • a similar evolution.

  • To stay in service for 30 years, the aircraft that need to be flying 30

  • years from now need to be in development today.

  • I think that we will start seeing regional electric aircraft happen.

  • And I think that will certainly be in the next 15 years.

  • Every type of transport is going electric has already gone electric and

  • planes are next. And it's not just some far-out future.

  • It's happening right now.

The invention of flight has been one of the most profound technologies in

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