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  • Yes, because make no mistake with every day that is going by, this is a situation which is getting worse.

  • First things first infections on death today is, Kirstie was saying was bleak.

  • Record breaking on both counts.

  • Take a look at this.

  • Uh, this new cases and new deaths throughout the UK cases you can see climbed to a new record high at 68,000 and 53 the weekly average for cases up 30%.

  • Go back just a few three weeks.

  • As you can see that it's climb so rapidly on they've risen 92% so they have nearly doubled in that time.

  • Deaths as well concede on this graph here also reached a new high today, over 1300 dying within 28 days off a positive test.

  • Some of that that's a little bit of catching up over record keeping from the holidays.

  • But the trend The red line you can see here unmistakably climbing ever higher.

  • Let's look a hospitalization to in every nation of the UK You can see here on England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland a number of covert patients in hospital in each different nation.

  • There are now Mawr or very nearly Mork overt patients in hospitals in every nation than there were at the April Peak, England, 49% more than the English April Peak.

  • You can see way above their Scotland.

  • They're the only ones just under their April peak, but only buys.

  • You can see a couple off percent, and you can see whales down here has more than double the number of patients in hospital with Kobe than they had their April peak on Northern Ireland.

  • While they've got 69% more covert patients and they had at their April peak, but it's dipping a little bit.

  • The worst picture of although is in London, not only in hospital numbers, but infection.

  • Two.

  • This is regional positivity rate and the percentage of people in each region of England which are testing positive.

  • There's some evidence it's dipping a little bit in London, but the data we got today shows that it's still way out in front of the rest of the population.

  • 3% of the population testing positive, one in 30.

  • But in some areas of London, like barking and Dagenham, that's over 6% or one inches.

  • 15 people testing positive for the virus in that part of London.

  • All of this is why a major incident was declared in the capital today on why hospitals really are at their limit on Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

  • If you look at London, there's some parts where you could already be quite worried that the service isn't coping.

  • You know, there are pockets where operations that would never be canceled.

  • Even at the height of the worst winter, you would never see operations for some cancers where every today means the worst kind of 1000 for a patient already being canceled.

  • You wouldn't see clinical staff in critical care units being asked care for the number of patients that they're being asked to care for at the moment.

  • So you already seen pockets of extreme crash in London that are only going to spread.

  • I remember we haven't even seen the full impact of Christmas yet.

  • That's to come on.

  • The worrying thing about all of this as well, is that we have some evidence that the policy mechanism to deal with this the lock down might not be quite as effective as it waas.

  • Previously, for example, this is some data that the transport for London has given use night Today compares tube use in the first week off the first lock down that's in the red part of the graph.

  • You can see there compared to the blue part of the graph, which is this week to abuse.

  • This week you can see to take yesterday.

  • This week there were 1.19 million tube journeys made yesterday the equivalent day in the equivalent Motte locked down in March, there was only about half a million, so big increase.

  • Likewise, this data looks a bit more complicated.

  • Also provided Thio Newsnight to survey of 6000 teachers.

  • Well, it shows, is the dramatic difference in school attendance in January this year.

  • This lock down to March last year Again, The red part of the graph is the lock down.

  • Last year.

  • You can see all of the attendances bunch towards the early part.

  • Off this graph tiny numbers either very few students appearing in school at all or between as you can see there one and 5% this time much mawr up this part of the graph.

  • One in five schools are seeing 20 to 30% of their kids come through the door, some down here seeing more than half.

  • And if the old measures aren't working as well as they did before, there's a worry that if they don't fall significantly, then there aren't that many more levers left to pull.

  • You can have an effect on it on block down definitely will have an effect on it.

  • But we need to do more than just make it plateau out because of the moment, you know, clattering out of the same levels as it's already at would mean that we carry on with over 1000 deaths today.

  • Andi can't do that, so we do need to decrease it on.

  • That is the real challenge here to bring down significantly bring down prevalence of the virus and to do it soon in their darkest moments.

  • Right now, epidemiologists are concerned that the combination of the new variant locked down fatigue and the ubiquity of the virus means that that might not happen with all the consequences for our health service.

  • They're in custody.

  • Lewis.

  • Thanks very much.

  • We're in a moment.

  • We'll speak to Professor Susan Mickey, who sits on stage and is director of the Center for Behavioral Change at University College London, and Dr Dan Poulter, conservative MP and psychiatrist who still works in the NHS as a mental health doctor.

  • But first we're going to hear from Rupert Pearce and I see you consultant working at a major London hospital, a good evening to all of you.

  • But first of all, Rupert Pearce, um, you are seeing the impact on your hospital daily.

  • How much worse do you think it's going to get?

  • We don't know.

  • We're very worried about how much worse that's going to get.

  • You talked a lot about the first wave in your peak.

  • It's worth noting the peak of admissions in the first wave occurred within a couple of three weeks.

  • Maybe on was down to quite low levels by four or five weeks.

  • This wave has been going for more than eight weeks, and we still haven't reached the peak.

  • So that's really the main reason why we're seeing such vast numbers of patients in hospital Onda.

  • The services on the ground there really tremendously stretched.

  • Can you see a difference in terms of the patients coming?

  • Onda deterioration of the condition.

  • It's hard on the ground to see a epidemiological patterns in the types of patients who come in.

  • I think that one of the important messages there's this appears to be a disease of all adults ages.

  • We're seeing patients in their twenties, thirties, forties fifties as well as older patients as well on the idea that this may not affect you because you're too healthy is really a fallacy.

  • And in terms of the staff and your I see you, you're seeing people coming for volunteering.

  • Untrained people coming in to help because you need them.

  • Yes, so we would normally run very strictly with one trained, intensive care nurse per each patient.

  • We've had to dilute that down as far as one nurse to three patients or even one nurse to four.

  • We have to back fill that space with trained nurses from other areas who aren't intensive care experts, medical students.

  • And this weekend, when I was working, even consultant colleagues had to step in tow.

  • Workers work alongside our nursing colleagues.

  • Sorry to interrupt.

  • You haven't spoken out much before, but you've decided to speak out now.

  • Why do you think this is so critical now?

  • Well, I'm very worried that we've reached the peak on.

  • We're really not seeing the kind of behavior that we saw in the first wave on I.

  • And many of my colleagues and medicine are extremely worried that the peak that this served wave is just going to carry on rising and rising thing that will reach a point where the NHS simply won't be able to cope with it on were particularly worried about opinion leaders chipping away of public confidence in the lock down measures.

  • In the public health measures that we've introduced to try and control the problem on personally, I find it particularly frustrating as a doctor to see MPs questioning the logic of a public health measures when maybe their local hospital in their constituency is full to bursting with.

  • Thank you very much, Professor, because I need to turn right now to Dan Pooter and Susan Mickey Dan Porter just picking up on that.

  • What Professor Pierce has described is actually very grieve and indeed frightening it is in the situation.

  • The front line is really tough at the moment, particularly in London, but in many other parts of the country as well in the Southeast, in the east of England.

  • What was unusual today was the fact that the NHS we're accustomed to sometimes diverting people from a very busy hospital where there's a major incident.

  • But a major incident was declared across all of London's hospitals and the situation, unfortunately, is going to get worse before it gets better.

  • Eso It's a really difficult situation.

  • It's something the first time.

  • I think in my time working in the NHS that I've been genuinely concerned about how we're going to manage to continue to care for our patients in the way that we'd like to, because we are very near to being over world.

  • You're new to being overwhelmed.

  • So does something have to happen very quickly in terms of adjusting the lock down?

  • Well, certainly if you look at the natures of in place now compared to lock down in March Onda, we weren't dealing with the mutant strain which is more easily transmissible.

  • Back in March, there were it was a stricter locked down in March and they're they're more relaxed rules about child care.

  • Well, let me bring in Susan Mickey on that.

  • Do you think the rules need to change or people need to comply with the rules who are not complying now, perhaps because they're just exhausted and actually find it incredibly difficult financially and indeed mentally well, the evidence shows that people are adhering to the rules Justus, much as they were back in June in the summertime.

  • But what we are seeing is many people out and about as we've heard earlier in the program.

  • But if you think about the much more lack locked down we have this time, it's not surprising we have mass gatherings in terms of nurseries and religious events.

  • We have household contact with cleaners, trace people, nannies going in the night of houses.

  • We have a very wide definition of critical work, and that s so we've heard that, you know, up to 30% of classes.

  • So people still going into schools all of that means much busier public transport on you Put all of that together on it means that we're getting really mixed messages.

  • On the one hand, the government saying we're locking down, stay at home.

  • But on the other hand, there saying Go out and dual these jobs on If you think that compared to march, we now in colder weather, so the virus survives longer.

  • Plus, people spend much more time indoors, where they're more at risk of aerosol transmission.

  • On we have a variant that somewhere between 50 and 70% more infectious, we should be having a strict a lot of time.

  • We've got relax lock time.

  • Well, Dan Poulter, you know, we heard from first appears that there's a danger of the NHS being overwhelmed and given with Susan.

  • Micky's said on that.

  • In fact, at Christmas there were very rapid changes to the Christmas get together rules.

  • These rules are not designed to be revisited for another fortnight.

  • But do you think in the light of what both practitioners air saying And indeed people like you are seeing her both a politician and a doctor, that the government actually needs to make an adjustment now to stop the NHS being overwhelmed?

  • Yes, I do.

  • And we need to look at things like, for example, rules on just, for example, mass congregations.

  • The worship those things have got to be looked at also got well, if it was down to me, yes, I would stop it.

  • And we also need to look at you know the way the this much greater is wider definition of key worker that's been put in place in terms of schooling.

  • And we've also got to look at possibly some of these issues around.

  • Support bubbles on DFAT M'lee bubbles because the risk is with one in three people being effectively asymptomatic for having the virus.

  • But not knowing they're dotted.

  • You could well be mixing in a family bubble on defecting people who you care and you love and care about.

  • And that's something that's happening every day at the moment.

  • And we need to look at this on day Takes him that I think more urgent action because, you know, the worst thing that we could see is a situation where it gets the point where the NHS it is systemically not just in one or two hospitals, but systemically unable to cope for a prolonged period of time.

  • And that's what we are a moment facing.

  • So it's not.

  • We need to revisit on these measures put in place tougher measures.

  • They're difficult, but it's about saving lives on bits, about making sure that the NHS is there for those who are really sick.

  • But we know that some people are desperate because they just do not have enough money to Corp despite measures being Putin place.

  • So the government presumably would have to move very quickly in a short term way toe to fill that gap.

  • If they want people.

  • If they're desperately keen that people do not leave their homes, absolutely.

  • You know, one thing that I part of a group of MPs on the part of parliamentary group on coronavirus.

  • We have specifically made recommendations to governments that exactly that that we need to find ways of better supporting people who will find it very economically tough, hard not to be at work.

  • And that's an important part of this package.

  • So but I hope to hear from is Cem Cem or from the Chancellor next week tucked coupled with some titan of some further tightening of the measures that we already have in place because you know, the economics have got to go hand in hand with the health care restrictions because that's very important on Susan.

  • This is making from your point of view, people presumably realized just how dangerous this new variant is.

  • Do you think if they were asked to make a bigger sacrifice within the next two weeks that they would do it well, that's the history of the pandemic.

  • When people see that there's a really big threat on that, what they could do could make a difference on.

  • They have the support to make that difference.

  • They will do it.

  • But we mustn't forget that one of the most important things is keeping those people who are infected or might be affected away from the rest of the population, which was the whole purpose of test trace and isolate.

  • We mustn't forget that it's so important to get that up and running.

  • But that requires supported isolation.

  • Other countries pay people to stay at home.

  • Other countries offer free hotel accommodation on visit every day when somebody is isolating for the 10 days to see if they're all right, Do they need any practical help with provisions or helping with their rubbish or whatever it might be?

Yes, because make no mistake with every day that is going by, this is a situation which is getting worse.

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Does the UK's lockdown need to get tougher? - BBC Newsnight

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    林宜悉 posted on 2021/01/11
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