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  • So at some point during your life, you've probably experienced something that you would describe as unlikely.

  • But what are some of the most unlikely things that could happen to you during your life.

  • To start with something more easy to visualize,

  • imagine walking into a room with 30 random people.

  • There is a 1 in 12 chance that you would share the same birthday with somebody else in that room, which seems unlikely

  • but it's almost infinitely more likely than some other future probabilities later in this video.

  • If you apply to Harvard,

  • you only have a 1 in 20 chance of getting accepted.

  • But that's still more likely than taking a pair of dice and rolling a snake eyes,

  • which is only a 1 in 36 chance. To get a little more unlikely,

  • you have only about a 1 in 100 chance of developing a brain tumor during your life

  • and a 1 in 102 chance of getting killed in an automobile accident if you live in the US.

  • Medically speaking,

  • You had a 1 in 500 chance of being born with 11 fingers or toes,

  • which is still more likely than a high school hockey player ever going pro,

  • which is only 1 in 598.

  • In fact,

  • It's very unlikely that any random high school athlete will ever make it to the pros.

  • With baseball being 1 in 659,

  • Football at 1 in 4233

  • Soccer at 1 in 5768,

  • and most challenging of all is Basketball at 1 in 11771.

  • To throw some more numbers in there to see how unlikely these statistics really are,

  • the odds of you correctly guessing a four-digit pin code are 1 in 10000 *Check his pinned comment* and the odds of you bowling a

  • perfect 300 point game are 1 in 11,500.

  • But all of these are more likely than you getting struck by lightning,

  • which you have a 1 in 12,000 lifetime chance of happening to you in the US.

  • If your skills at golfer are average,

  • then you have a roughly 1 in 12,500 chance of hitting a hole-in-one at the golf course,

  • which is still much more likely than you getting murdered in U.S,

  • which you only have a 1 in 18,000 chance of per year.

  • We're starting to get into the pretty unlikely events now,

  • so with that being said,

  • you only have a 1 in 54,000 chance of dying from a bee sting,

  • the odds of you dating a supermodel are unfortunately only 1 in 88,000

  • and the odds of you becoming the CEO of a Fortune 500 company are based on what degree you hold.

  • MBAs have a 1 in 135,000 chance,

  • engineers have a 1 in 164,000 chance,

  • and lawyers have only a 1 in 386,000 chance,

  • which is less likely than you getting killed in a firework accident at

  • 1 in 340,000.

  • The next time you're playing poker, you should know that the odds of you being dealt a Royal Flush

  • are just 1 in 649,740

  • which is only slightly more probable than their risk of the asteroid,

  • 2017 YZ1, impacting Earth on June 30th, 2047,

  • which is a 1 in 670,000 chance.

  • Let's fast forward ahead to the very unlikely events that probably won't ever happen to you or anybody else that you know.

  • The odds of you getting killed by a terrorist in the US are just 1 in 4,000,000

  • and the risk of you getting eaten by a shark are even lower at just 1 in 8,000,000.

  • You have a kind of surprising 1 in 10,000,000 chance of becoming the President of the United States if you're a US citizen,

  • which is even more likely than you dying in a commercial plane crash at the very very low odds of only 1 in 11,000,000.

  • But we can keep going to even more ludicrously unlikely events,

  • like your risk of getting killed by an asteroid impact

  • at just 1 in 74,817,000.

  • So you're literally more likely to get hit by an asteroid and die than you are to win the jackpot of the Powerball lottery,

  • where the odds are a staggering

  • 1 in 175,000,000.

  • Back in 2016, the Powerball jackpot reached 1.6 billion dollars

  • and you stood a better chance of winning that

  • than you ever would have at winning the comparatively small

  • 1,000,000 dollar Grand Prize of the McDonald's Monopoly game

  • at just 1 in 451,000,000!

  • But even still, there are people that these statistically unlikely events actually have happened to,

  • but the next events are so unlikely that they may never happen to anybody in history

  • like picking a perfect NCAA bracket

  • at a chance of just 1 in 128 billion.

  • NASA claims that the odds of you getting killed by a falling satellite are just 1 in 21 trillion

  • And if you haven't studied for that test coming up in a few days,

  • you should know that the odds of you passing a 100 question multiple choice exam by guessing on every question

  • are only 1 in 750 trillion.

  • But the most unlikely thing that I'll be talking about in this video that could happen to you seems pretty mundane at first;

  • Shuffling the same deck of 52 cards and getting the same order of cards twice.

  • The odds of you doing this are roughly

  • 1 in 80 unvigintillion,

  • or 1 in 8.0658*10^67.

  • or 8 with 67 zeros written in front of it.

  • There are more ways to arrange a deck of cards than there are atoms on Earth

  • Which means that every time you've shuffled a deck , it's very likely that

  • exact order of cards has never before been seen in human history and likely never will be again.

  • But the best way that anybody has ever described this, in my opinion,

  • was a user called Leofric on a Reddit thread that I've linked in the description.

  • His quote roughly reads as follows:

  • 8.0658*10^67. is such an enormous number

  • Imagine that you set a timer for that many seconds.

  • Stand on the equator,

  • and take a step forward every 1 billion years

  • When you've circled the entire Earth once,

  • take a drop of water out of the Pacific Ocean and repeat.

  • When the Pacific Ocean is empty,

  • lay a sheet of paper down,

  • refill the Pacific, and repeat.

  • When your stack of paper reaches the Sun,

  • look at your timer.

  • It seems to have barely changed.

  • You started with 8.0658*10^67 seconds

  • and now you STILL have 8.0630*10^67 seconds still remaining.

  • To kill the time further,

  • you start doing something else.

  • Shuffle a deck of cards and deal yourself five cards every billion years.

  • Each time you get a royal flush,

  • buy yourself a lottery ticket.

  • Each time that ticket hits a jackpot

  • throw a grain of sand into the Grand Canyon.

  • When the Grand Canyon is full,

  • take one ounce of rock from Mount Everest,

  • empty the Grand Canyon, and start the process all over again.

  • When Everest has been completely removed from the map,

  • check the timer again.

  • There is STILL barely any change.

  • It's now at 5.364*10^67 seconds remaining.

  • You would have to repeat this entire, enormous process

  • 256 times to run out the timer to zero.

  • The reason this is so complicated is because of a mathematical principle called Factorials.

  • You can figure out how many combinations at deck of 52 cards can be arranged into by multiplying

  • 52 by 51 by 50 by 49 and so on

  • until you get down to one

  • That's how you get a number as ridiculous as this.

  • So the math that goes into figuring out something like this

  • is one of the most confusing things that I've ever

  • experienced in making videos for this channel

  • But knowing probability can be extremely rewarding,

  • the next time you go to a casino, for example

  • It would be good for you to know that playing blackjack

  • is where you're most likely to win any kind of money and your starting hand determines

  • what you should do based on probability.

  • If your hand starts with 12,

  • you only have a 31% chance of busting on the next card.

  • But if you start with a 20,

  • you're ought to shoot up to 92 percent

  • and you can see everything else in between.

  • I learned all of this and more

  • by taking the course on Games of Chance over at Brilliant.org,

  • and you can quickly do the same.

  • Numbers and math don't come easy to me naturally and they never have

  • and I'm sure many of you probably struggle with the same issue,

  • But Brilliant can help a lot with making you feel more confident.

  • Rather than simply telling you numbers and facts about games like Blackjack or Poker

  • and hoping you memorize them,

  • they start by teaching you the intuitive ideas behind the probability

  • that influences what happens.

  • By playing through their puzzles,

  • you'll come to understand how Games of Chance actually work and Brilliant has tons of

  • other relevant courses to help you learn more about how our world really works,

  • like probability, logic, computer science

  • and so much more,

  • all of which similarly guide you along as you build up your core knowledge.

  • You can take as many of these incredibly design courses as you want

  • with their premium subscription and which by being one of the first

  • 200 people to sign up by clicking the link in the description

  • you can get for 20% off.

  • Check out these other videos of RealLifeLore, get Brilliant, and subscribe. :)

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