It's a common trope in horror.

In people, mutations cause disfigurement, aggression, even cannibalism.

So it's not surprising that the conversation around mutation and the virus that causes Cove in 19 feel scary.

The genetic mutations in real life aren't like the ones we see in movies, and on a viral level they could actually help us track and manage Cove in 19.

So let's break down what mutations actually are and what they could mean for the virus we're facing right now.

This is SARS cov to the virus that causes co vid 19.

It's a type of RNA virus, some of which mutate practically every time they replicate SARS.

Cov to is actually one of the rare RNA viruses that has a proof reading mechanism that slows down it's mutation rates.

Um, despite that it has mutated and it will continue to mutate.

But that's not a scary as it sounds.

It's basically a typo or a mistake that occurs like if you were writing an essay SARS cov twos.

RNA is basically a blueprint for making mawr SARS cov twos, but viruses can't replicate themselves.

They have toe hack into another organism cells and use their machinery to make new copies.

Here's how that process works.

The virus will let its genetic material free into the cytoplasm of the South, and then when that genetic material encounters, it's called a rival zone.

The ribosomes reads the viruses blueprint and starts building a new virus.

Then it'll read it three nucleic acids at a time, so we call it a coat on, and they're always three nucleic acids.

And a combination of three nucleic acids corresponds to a single amino acid.

String those amino acids together, and that's what creates the protein.

But occasionally the wrong nucleic acid will get added to the chain.

This can sometimes but not always lead to changes down the line, making that offspring virus slightly different from its parent.

Each amino acid or combination of amino acids is responsible for defining some characteristic of the virus.

Things like its shape, how infectious it is, what kind of organism it infects and the types of cells it targets.

So a mutation or more likely multiple mutations has the potential to change any of those things.

Theoretically, everything is fair game because these mutations are totally random events, but a mutation in a single virus Onley effects that one virus for mutation to stick.

It has to be able to be passed on to new generations and new hosts.

So something that messes with vital functions like the viruses.

Ability to replicate means a dead end in terms of the viruses fitness, the probability of beneficial, neutral and harmful mutations shifts based on the environment it's in.

Let's say a virus is perfectly suited to its environment.

The virus doesn't stop mutating, but it would be impossible for a mutation to make it even mawr perfect.

So the likelihood of mutations that are neutral or harmful for the virus are very high.

It's impossible to say SARS cov to is perfectly suited for infecting humans, but since it can move from person to person so efficiently, experts don't think it's facing a lot of pressure to adapt.

Plus, it's to most concerning characteristics how contagious it is and how harmful it could be a controlled by multiple genes.

So in order to become more contagious, orm or harmful, the virus would need to undergo multiple beneficial mutations at exactly the right time.

That's just not very likely.

But Mary points out that even talking about mutations in terms of dangerous or worse could be subjective.

In my mind, what makes this outbreak or this epidemic especially concerning is that so many people who get infected with the virus don't really show symptoms, and that's why it's been able to spread so far.

But if there were to be a change that you know made the virus the infection much worse than people in some ways it easier to control.

So there are all these different trade.

Also, we need to think about mutations can actually be pivotal when it comes to Fighting Cove in 19.

Since we know what SARS COV twos genome looked like at the beginning of the outbreak, we contract when and where it changes.

We actually saw that patients that we identified in Connecticut in the early stages of the outbreak here they're virus was more closely related to viruses that were collected and sequenced in Washington state, compared to in China or in Europe, for example.

So that actually tells us that we have domestic transmission going on, and we are getting all this information based off mutations that have arisen in the virus.

There are a couple initiatives that air tracking this data globally right now, one being next strain unopened source project that tracks the spread and evolution of infectious diseases in real time.

Right now, it's focused on Cove in 19.

Researchers can use that information to answer questions like How fast is it mutating?

Not very.

Is it spreading by air travel?

Definitely, especially early on.

Will it mutate in a way that makes a potential vaccine ineffective?

Like the flu?

People who designed vaccines think about this.

All Like this is something that's factored into vaccine design.

So, typically vaccines.

They use these highly conserved targets so they'll pick some part of the virus that is not tolerant.

Teoh A lot of change or after really any change, it can't really mutate away from the vaccine without, you know, compromising some other really crucial element of its lifecycle.

Plus, the flu is unique in the way it's genetic material is structured.

It's an RNA virus to, but its genome is segmented.

The coronavirus genome is not.

The segments translate to a bunch of different proteins, so every time the body sees a new protein, it has to make an entirely different set of antibody specifically designed to fight it.

We don't know exactly how often a new vaccine for Cove in 19 will be necessary.

But we do know the virus doesn't have this same flexibility when it comes to proteins.

And experts have been looking at another coronavirus, the one that causes SARS.

To get an idea of how we might handle this one immunity to that virus last roughly 2 to 3 years.

Since it and the new coronavirus share a significant amount of genetic material, this could be a good estimate.

If that's the case, then a vaccine should last Justus long since the virus is mutating so slowly, and that's really the point.

The viral ancestor of SARS cov to did have to mutate in order to jump from animals to people.

But it most likely happened very gradually with a Siris of mutations over the course of many, many years.

Time scale is really what matters here.

At the end of the day, we need to be thinking about how best we can control this outbreak in the U.

S.

And then also around the world, because if there's no ongoing transmission, there's no mutations, and then we really not to worry.