But hope has arrived in the form of three apparently highly effective vaccines, announced one after the other in November.

That prompted a surge in the number of searches about them on everyone's asking, When can we get the vaccine well?

To answer that there are several factors.

The first is global demand an estimated 7.5 billion doses air needed.

That's because around 60 to 70% of the global population has to be vaccinated.

This is why, if you have a highly efficacious vaccine and only a relatively small 40 50% of the people get vaccinated, you're not going to get the herd immunity you need on without herd immunity, the virus will continue to spread.

So the demand for this vaccine is vast, which takes us to the second factor.

Capacity fighter and biotech estimate they can produce up to 1.3 billion doses by the end of 2021 Moderna upto one billion AstraZeneca up to three billion of the Oxford vaccine.

Huge numbers.

But look at this from the W.

H.

O, saying the only certainty is that there won't be enough on if there aren't enough doses are third factories which countries take priority?

In short, the richest ones will.

We know.

The U.

K, the U, the U.

S, Australia and others have cut deals to receive millions of vaccine doses on the W.

H.

O is worried.

There is in our riel risk that the poorest and most vulnerable people trampled will be trampled in the stampede for vaccines.

There is a plan to stop this.

It's called Kovacs and already almost 100 countries air agreeing to share vaccine resources fairly regardless of a country's wealth.

That will help.

So we'll humanitarian groups funding affordable vaccines, but only to a point where you live will affect when you get the vaccine.

Next, we have to consider your age, your health and your job.

The Kovacs plan prioritizes health and social care workers.

Then this is a manual Macron on the French approach way will probably start at the end of December early January, subject to validation by the health authorities by vaccinating the most fragile people and therefore the oldest.

The U.

K two is prioritizing the elderly, the vulnerable on essential workers.

That's the start beyond that, the head of the U.

K's Vaccine Task Force said in October.

People keep talking about time to vaccinate the whole population, but that is misguided.

It's an adult only vaccine for people over 50.

In other words, some adults will get it.

Not all, then, in the US this is President elect Joe Biden on his ambitions.

We'll need to put in place the distribution plan to get the entire country immunized as soon as possible, which we will do.

But it's gonna take time.

Well, whether an entire country or some of it, he's right.

It's going to take time.

The question is, How long will this take?

Well, this is a vast logistical challenge.

So while vaccinations may start this year, if you're not elderly, vulnerable or working in health or social care, the W.

H O says you may have to wait till 2022.

There are, though some who aren't having to wait it all in China.

Hundreds of thousands of people have taken state sponsored experimental vaccines in Russia.

It's vaccines being used on a range of essential workers.

Even one of Vladimir Putin's daughters has had it.

But none of these vaccines have yet completed industry standard trials.

And finally, there's the issue of people who don't want it all.

Thes anti fax protests in Germany and a report recently published in The Lancet found that 31 million people follow anti fax groups like this on Facebook.

We can't know what impact these will have on the push for widespread vaccination, but we can't be clear on one thing.

While demand for the vaccine is huge, those who don't want it won't be forced to take it.