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  • Europe is struggling to contain covert.

  • 19 infections are increasing.

  • So our restrictions on the Dutch prime minister says it's the only way we have to be stricter.

  • But is it the only way one country has offered an alternative?

  • I think Sweden guarded.

  • Yeah, basically, except they didn't do it right in the beginning.

  • But basically they got it right.

  • Who is Sweden getting it right?

  • It's one of the big questions of the pandemic.

  • Hundreds of articles have been devoted to it with wildly different conclusions.

  • Times Analysis says the Swedish response is a disaster.

  • It shouldn't be a model for the rest of the world.

  • But look at this from the W.

  • H.

  • O.

  • In late September, it says, we must recognize that Sweden at the moment has avoided the increase that's been seen in some of Western Europe.

  • We will be very keen on hearing Mawr from the Swedish approach.

  • Well, what is the Swedish approach?

  • But simply when many countries went into lock down in March, Sweden didn't.

  • Instead, it pursued voluntary social distancing.

  • It encouraged a range of things working from home, avoiding public transport table service in bars on that advice rested on the assumption that people feel like this.

  • We in Sweden trust the authorities, and if the authorities say stay at home, please and work from home, we do that so they didn't need to say You have to go on a long time.

  • Sweden's calculation is that people will social distance effectively if the message is simple, credible and consistent.

  • Also, the Swedish approach doesn't include masks, officials argue.

  • They give people false confidence, which sometimes undermine social distancing on.

  • All of this is designed to move Sweden towards a goal that it shares with other European countries.

  • How to reduce contacts between people.

  • You'll hear this referenced again and again.

  • A number of social contacts and travel movements must be drastically reduced if, during the six weeks we follow the curfew, we act collectively to reduce the number of contacts.

  • That's the point at which we think we can progressively start open up again because reduce contacts and you reduce the risk of transmission.

  • Relevant to that is the role of the super spreader.

  • It's thought most covert infections are transmitted by around 10 to 20% of people who have it.

  • This Danish epidemiologists argues Sweden understood this a full lock down would be too much.

  • You need Thio.

  • You need to look at this super spreaders and limit them.

  • And that's basically what Sweden did.

  • The most visible say are actually the only really intervention they did was to say that you're Max Calories was 50 so that Sweden's approach and to assess it, of course, we need to look at how the numbers compare.

  • I'm going to focus on three measures.

  • First, Sweden's total deaths per capita is the 15th highest in the world, higher than most major European nations.

  • Second, when it comes to the total numbers of cases per capita, both Norway and the UK have lower figures than Sweden.

  • But Spain and France have higher and third, the infection rate Sweden has so far avoided in autumn surge.

  • But its infection rate is higher than Norway and Germany, and it's rising.

  • Thistle feels a long way from the success story some would describe, and there are other issues to some, critics argue, the whole thing is actually a misjudge plan to achieve herd immunity, something that strongly denied.

  • Also, Sweden's approaches relied on thousands of vulnerable people shielding themselves, while others live under lighter restrictions on Sweden's number of deaths was in part driven by a failure to properly protect care home.

  • But the man who devised Sweden's approach thinks in the long term it will work in parts we and Sweden have always had the same regulations in place, the same recommendations and general advice on they still apply.

  • E think it creates a sense of security on a long term perspective, and then it is easier to follow.

  • Consistent, long term consensual.

  • This is Sweden's mantra, and at the heart of that is a commitment to the social contract, a contract that requires trust between people on national decision makers.

  • You could argue without it any co vid strategy will struggle.

  • Now, as we've seen, there's nothing in the data to show Sweden is definitely getting it right.

Europe is struggling to contain covert.

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