Name: The Bayesian Trap
Uploaded: 2020-03-28T18:37:21.000Z
Duration: 10 min 37 s
Description: Thousands of YouTube videos with English-Chinese subtitles! Now you can learn to understand native speakers, expand your vocabulary, and improve your pronunciation...

The imperative

Picture this: You wake up one morning and

you feel a little bit sick. No particular

doesn't know what's going on with you, so

horrible consequences, you don't want it.

bad. I mean, what are the chances that you

that's the accuracy of the test. But that

is not actually correct! You need Bayes' Theorem

probability of the hypothesis was true - that

event occurring - that is testing positive.

testing positive. Which is incredibly low

common sense applied to mathematics. Just

disease. But out of the 999 other people,

selected at random - well, you're actually

of actually having it are 1 in 11. 9%. It just makes sense. When Bayes

assistant to throw a ball onto the table.

to throw on another ball and then tell him

if it landed to the left, or to the right,

or in front, behind of the first ball, and

Subtitles ListPlay Video

The Bayesian Trap

deserve

evidence

determine

positive