We're going to try again.

Boris's Brexit Map--

ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: Part Two.

MIRANDA GREEN: So Robert, two weeks ago we

tried to map Boris Johnson's options

to get us through the Brexit morass.

ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: Model of clarity.

MIRANDA GREEN: A model of clarity

as our viewers can see here before us.

Time's been ticking.

It's now only 20 days to the October 31st Brexit deadline,

but a lot has actually changed since we last spoke.

So should we have another go--

ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: We'll do this again.

MIRANDA GREEN: --and try to work out what happens next?

ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: I don't think there's anything in here that

has yet proved to be wrong, but that we

have got more information.

So let's have another go.

MIRANDA GREEN: So let's move on.

Let's move on.

Let's move on.

The things that we definitely do know, the deadline--

31st October.

And then before that, the 19th of October.

So here we are, 11th, 12th.

And then there's the summit on the 16th.

The summit.

So it looks like here we all are we actually

have more of a chance of a deal than no deal,

or certainly than last time we spoke.

It's cheered up a bit because discussions

between the UK and Ireland--

ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: It's definitely cheered up

this week.

It looked really grim for most of the week,

and then Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar met in the Wirral

on Thursday.

And to a lot of people's surprise, I think,

the noise out of it were much more positive.

Varadkar said he saw a pathway to a deal, which is obviously

not the same as a deal.

One analyst I saw raised the chances from 5% to 10%.

So we should keep some sense of perspective.

But we will know, I think, within the next 24 to 48 hours

whether the European Union thinks

there is enough movement for it to be worth

starting to negotiate.

So it's far too early at the moment

to say there's going to be a deal,

but it looks a little less unlikely than it

did earlier this week.

But no deal is definitely still alive as a possibility.

MIRANDA GREEN: So sticking to the deal for now,

there's the question of whether Boris Johnson can strike a deal

with the EU that satisfies both the Republic of Ireland

and the Northern Ireland Unionists-- the DUP--

and his own right wing, and possibly tempt across 20 to 30

Labour MPs to support it in the House of Commons.

How on earth do you get a deal that satisfies

all those groups of people?

Because their needs are mutually exclusive.

Or do you think just the pressure of getting further

along this timeline is making people

more likely to compromise?

ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: Well, I don't know the odds.

Getting a deal that everybody can sign up to

is really difficult, especially a deal

that the Democratic Unionists and the Republic of Ireland

can sign up to.

And we know how hard that is, because we watched the Good

Friday Agreement, and we know how long it took.

And almost by definition, the moment one of those sides

is happy, the other one's unhappy.

So it is very tricky.

We know Boris Johnson talked to Arlene Foster in the DUP

before his meeting with Varadkar.

So whatever concessions he has put forward,

he must at least have talked to the DUP about them

and felt able to go a bit further.

So we shall see.

The numbers remain absolutely horrible and incredibly tight.

And I think there are two dynamics here, one of which

is that there are all these people just

desperate not to leave without a deal,

and don't really want an election where no deal could

become viable at the end of it.

MIRANDA GREEN: Absolutely.

ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: And then the others who think,

but if we sign up for this deal, it's Brexit, it's happened.

And our hopes for a referendum, our hopes of getting

this reversed are gone.

So the numbers in parliament are horribly tight.

The referendum had an interesting point,

and I know you think this has got more likely.

MIRANDA GREEN: I do.

So one thing that we have left off are groups of people he has

to satisfy actually-- apart from the EU,

which I definitely add--

is also the sort of one nation Tories, who

are extremely concerned that if we get to a general election

where Brexit has not been resolved either

through an election referendum or some other means,

that the Tory Party manifesto will make it possible

for them to claim after the election

that they have a mandate for no deal.

So one of the things that's happened since we last spoke

is that this group has become much more vocal

in trying to put pressure on Number 10

on the subject of no deal.

The other thing that I think is really interesting

is that the chances of all of these groups in Parliament

who essentially don't agree on what should be in a Brexit deal

might be persuaded to sign up to it

and at least pass it on condition that it's then

put to a referendum.

And I think the chances of that have gone up.

ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: Before we get to the referendum,

can we just stick on this for a minute?

Because I think there has been a lot of briefing and counter

briefing.

This is one of the really important things

is the noises of.

And [INAUDIBLE] and the one nation Tories, up to 50 of them

said they couldn't support a Conservative manifesto

in a general election, which essentially the party ran

on no deal.

And the reason they said that is because if it

is a no deal into a general election,

the Brexit Party have made lots of noises saying they

can't support the Conservatives unless it's no deal,

or as they also like to call it, clean Brexit.

They have a flair for phraseology.

Whether these people really mean it-- thus far,

the one nation Tories that have stayed in the party I've

been a tower of jelly.

So whether they would really go through with it, I don't know.

I think they are still desperate to get a deal

over the line, almost any deal.

Which is why I think the referendum point comes back

into play.

MIRANDA GREEN: So the one nation Tories

are really worried that you'd end up with a Tory Party

standing on a platform that even if it wasn't promising no deal,

would commit them to it, facilitate it.

And would mean that if they won a general election, won

a majority or even the largest party again, they could say,

we have a mandate to do this.

We have a mandate to crash Britain out.

I've also spoken to some of the Labour MPs who,

although they are sort of softening their red lines as it

were, they've started to say, so long as the EU is happy,

we're happy.

Which is quite interesting in and of itself, I think.

But those Labour rebels are also really worried about the idea

of having a general election in which it turns into a proxy

Brexit referendum where people vote on lots of other issues,

and you end up with no deal.

Because these Labour rebels, they might be willing

to support a deal.

They sure as hell are not willing to support a no deal

Brexit.

So you've got these--

ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: Of course, then they're going to lose.

MIRANDA GREEN: Well, that's right, exactly.

They wouldn't be worried if they thought Jeremy Corbyn was going

to sweep the board, clearly.

But I think the other intervention this week

that's been interesting is Tony Blair,

the former Labour prime minister, who's always--

he has always, we should say, been