Name: Estimating actual COVID 19 cases (novel corona virus infections) in an area based on deaths
Uploaded: 2020-03-27T17:19:19.000Z
Duration: 12 min 45 s
Description: Thousands of YouTube videos with English-Chinese subtitles! Now you can learn to understand native speakers, expand your vocabulary, and improve your pronunciation...

the actual new COVID-19 cases per day in your area.

And it's based on analysis by Thomas Pueyo,

he wrote an incredible blog post on Medium.

This is the link and I'll also include it

This is the data that he uses to do some of his analysis.

I know the number of COVID cases in my area,

they're reporting it on the news every day.

There are a lot of people who might not have symptoms yet

or their symptoms are not severe enough to get the test yet.

So the actual cases are likely far larger

Once again, this is a diagram put together by Thomas Pueyo.

This is all his analysis, or based off of his analysis,

but this shows you what was happening in Hubei Province,

And there's several interesting things here.

and what we see on the horizontal axis is per day.

And so for example, we could pick January 23.

The yellow bar tells us the number of confirmed new cases

So these are people who would have been tested

and it looks like that number is about 300.

This gray bar is the actual number of new cases that day,

how did they know the actual number of cases

when someone tested positive, they asked them,

And if they said, Hey, I first got the symptoms 10 days ago,

they would be included as a true new case.

An actual new case 10 days before that on January 13,

to actually make these gray bars in hindsight,

based on when people said they first got the symptoms.

And there's a lot of really interesting information here.

So let's draw a line between the pre shut down

And you can see just as the city officials

essentially significantly slowing down the spread rate.

which were they were able to calculate in hindsight,

the confirmed new cases continued to go up

You can even see the delay right over here.

Now you might be saying, all right, this isn't too bad.

It looks like things eventually became okay for Wuhan.

But this is because they did a very serious shut down.

you would have seen this exponential growth continue.

It's also worth remembering what I just drew this curve on.

you would have to sum up the gray or the yellow bars

all of these gray bars over here, as of January 22,

while if you add up all of the yellow bars,

that is roughly only 444 confirmed cases.

So before the city even went into shutdown,

and this is what the Chinese doing reasonably good testing,

than the confirmed cases would make you believe.

And as large as the ratio is on a given day

between the number of actual new cases per day

and the number of confirmed new cases per day,

in a lot of the geographies where we live,

because we're not testing as well as the Chinese did.

Subtitles ListPlay Video

Estimating actual COVID 19 cases (novel corona virus infections) in an area based on deaths

assume

eventually

figure

situation