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  • China is reporting form or new cases of a rare strain of the bird flu.

  • This comes on the heels of three cases of the flu on Sunday, including two men who have since died, joining me now from Minneapolis, his Dr Michael Foster home.

  • He's director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy Doctor, also home.

  • Thank you so much for joining us.

  • What do you make of what's happening in China?

  • Well, thank you for having me.

  • First of all, let me just say that it's ah, situation is changing rather quickly.

  • As of tonight, there are now seven confirmed cases in three different areas in China.

  • Ah, and, uh, this point, it looks as if from the virus information that we have that it's becoming much more adapted towards transmitting to and by humans.

  • Yeah, I saw you one time say that when it comes to influence, expect the unexpected.

  • So what should we expect?

  • Well, I think this one is truly has the public health community around the world quite concerned.

  • This is a virus that we as humans have really no experience with.

  • So should it become adapted to humans and be transmitted by humans to humans.

  • We don't really have any residual protection in the population.

  • And so it surely could cause a very serious disease and spread worldwide and literally be another pandemic virus.

  • I think the real question is, is it going to fizzle out much like we saw with H five n one in Hong Kong in 1997?

  • Or is it going to go on and really become a full blown pandemic?

  • And we have no idea.

  • Right now we're at between those two extremes.

  • Let me ask you, if you would for audience just to kind of walk us through the normal spread of avian flu, how does it spread?

  • Well, basically, all influenza viruses originate in aquatic birds.

  • Ah, And when we think of that, we think of that kind of what we say natural reservoir, meaning that there are many, many different flu viruses.

  • Some make them their way into domestic poultry, other domesticated birds, and they actually have a certain kind of receptor site.

  • Or, in other words, their ability to attach to the lungs of birds is different than it is in humans.

  • Pigs, they're kind of the universal receptor.

  • You can actually infect pigs with bird viruses and human viruses.

  • And what we worry about is when a virus changes enough, either going through pigs or just in birds directly to now readily infect humans and allow humans to transmit it to other people.

  • That's when we get a brand new strain of flu virus and people.

  • That's what we worry about.

  • Pandemics are a rapidly emerging global problem, and that's what we're worried about.

  • Here, let me ask you this.

  • We have a lot of viewers in Asia.

  • Any suggestions you'd make to them that might be watching tonight?

  • No, I think Stay tuned.

  • I first thought congratulate the Chinese government for really a very rapid response and complete transparency.

  • I think they've done a remarkable job at all levels in China of responding to this, and they clearly have been sharing the information with the rest of the world in real time.

  • That helps a lot.

  • That allows us to give the public a much better information right now.

  • This may fizzle out.

  • We could only hope that it will if it doesn't.

  • Obviously it's a stay tuned moment, and it's one that could really be very significant and That's what people have to wait for.

  • And you're somebody who knows when something's fizzling and when something's actually being fueled.

  • What will you be looking for in the next few days?

  • Well, one of things we're gonna be looking for is there any person to person transmission?

  • We don't have any evidence of that yet.

  • But when people become infected from whatever source, that maybe whether it's some animal, uh, or another person is there evidence of that person to person transmission?

  • The second thing we're gonna be looking at is the virus continue to change has become more adapted to one that we'd expect to be readily transmitted among people.

  • And then I think, third of all our we've seen it spread in a way that would suggest really rapid transmission.

  • Does it get outside of China?

  • Does it move into the rest of the world?

  • Remember that in 2009 with that pandemic strain, H one N one within 28 days of its first recognition that viruses and 48 different countries So here we're gonna be watching very carefully.

  • Does this virus move?

  • And if it does, where does it move to and what does it do?

  • It'll be an interesting few days.

  • Thank you so much.

  • Dr.

  • Osterman.

  • Poster home for joining us this evening from Minneapolis.

  • Appreciated.

China is reporting form or new cases of a rare strain of the bird flu.

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