Name: Mortgage rates around 3% will get buyers out: Economist
Uploaded: 2020-03-15T20:11:09.000Z
Duration: 5 min 4 s
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I mean, three and 1/2 percent fixed mortgage rates pretty attractive in the green scheme of things.

And I think, uh, how buyers have been very sensitive to the moves in mortgage rates.

So anything around three and 1/2 percent, I think we'll get buyers out.

You did point out an important point, though.

While there's demand there isn't a whole lot of supply.

The amount of inventory out there for sale is at very low levels, near record low levels and new housing.

Construction is also improving, but still very low by any historical standards.

So even if people want to buy homes, they may not be ableto find it.

So that's a as a governor on sales constraint on sales, despite the low mortgage rates.

Yeah, and certainly that supply shortages, something we've been following very closely.

I wonder, though, with rates as low as they are with commodity prices, for example, coming off as well.

Is this going to be enough to spur builders to create more supply more houses?

You know the economics are right for them to build more, particularly at the lower price points.

There's too much supply at the high end, but a real severe shortage of the lower and middle price point.

The problem they're having is the zoning, the permitting, getting construction workers because of the tight labor market on.

And, um, you know, things can't get all the pieces together to build those homes, at least not as fast as the demand is there for the four of them.

So I think they'll get it together and we'll see more housing construction.

Mark, let me broaden out the conversation to the economy at large in the United States.

Are you concerned at all that it is slowing and it's kind of hit sort of stall levels at 2%?

Well, Tyler, 2% is the economy's potential rate of growth, So if we stay there, we're gonna create enough jobs to maintain the current low unemployment and life should be good, and expansion will continue on.

But as you point out, if if anything kind of goes off script and growth slows even a little bit, you know, we get down into the one and 1/2 percent range on GDP, then unemployment will start to not tire.

And as soon as that happens, recession dynamics begin to take hold.

And of course, there's a lot of things out there is we're seeing today that could send things off Script that could derail thinks so, Yeah, I think recession risks are there lower than they were, you know, end of last year.

The threat of the president escalating the trade war was a really risk to recession.

But I think recession risks are We're still quite high, uncomfortably high because we are traveling at a rate of growth that's just around potential, little slower and we'll have a problem.

Off script 737 Max Production Halt Off script.

That's a one time hit, ER, and hopefully that comes back online sometime later in the year.

And you know, that's well, we understand that we have a pretty good grip on it.

I don't think that scares anyone too much.

It's a negative, but I don't think that's the thing.

Corona virus That qualifies because we can't handicap.

Put a number on it and you can construct some pretty dark scenarios.

And, you know, even though you attach a very low probability of the scenarios, that's a problem.

And it's obviously with the stock market's discounting today.

And adding to that nervousness is the fact that valuations in the equity market are very, very high about as high as they've ever been, except for around y two k in the dot com boom.

Now they should be high because rates are low, but they are stretched in in the market is discounting nothing but good news in a corner by rioters is certainly not that so.

Yeah, that would qualify, and we need to watch that very careful.

As bond yields on the 10 year come down mark how much attention to you as an economist pay to the to the so called yield curve and whether it is inverted or positive, I pay attention.

You know there's arguments good arguments why the yield curve may be overstating the case.

I mean, historically, whenever the 10 year yield falls below the three month bill, yield on a consistent basis and it did that last year, you get a recession.

It's pretty full proof that may not happen.

This go around just because of idiosyncratic things that are going on the global quantitative easing and demographic demand for long term bond.

So it probably overstates the case, but it's making a case.

The case is growth will remain slow right around that 2% level in again.

You know, I haven't looked today, but I'm guessing even you know this.

 It's a little bit negative right now, just by a little bit. 