Name: Drawing the UK election's battle lines | The Road to Brexit (s1 ep 4)
Uploaded: 2020-03-14T22:03:40.000Z
Duration: 24 min 31 s
Description: Thousands of YouTube videos with English-Chinese subtitles! Now you can learn to understand native speakers, expand your vocabulary, and improve your pronunciation...

Three elections battleground 2019 with a fusion of Dad's army.

So, Robert, this election is gonna be a wild ride.

We've invented a wild ride for ourselves this morning cause I'm going to attempt to draw the United Kingdom, and then we're gonna match the battleground.

I've seen you practicing your maps and all I can say so far, it's fantastic.

This, believe it or not, represents East Anglia, Kent, the Southwest whales.

Um, here's Northern Ireland that Oh, that's really got like, the chef's happening.

So this election's worked very complicated, potentially the era of kind of national swing telling you the whole story is over and we gotta have some regional fights.

So let's try and explain what's going on.

Would you like to take the conservative pen?

The first battle ground that's been identified has been what's being called the Red Wall.

His labor held seats in that kind of a shape.

Yeah, you can actually take you all the way across to some extent, but okay.

That's the red wall all the way from the veil of Cloyd over to the Northeast coast on the's.

Our seats, The Tory party thinks it needs to win.

Majority on this is gonna be one of most annoying phrases.

Also, the Red Wall, which is, of course, not a wallet, all but more of a set of crazy paving or something like that.

There are spots all over the place becomes comes down to the Midlands in parts as well.

On DDE, these are seats essentially all over the place, with wildly different demographics that the Conservatives think they've got a chance of taking their labour seats.

And when we talk about the rebel with most talking about seats that the Conservatives never held run held in modern memory.

Some of them are really quite surprising.

Former mining seats Darvish or areas in a box over, for example, Dennis Skinner's seat famously for God knows how many years Tourist think they've got a real chump.

So the places like that also up toward Sheffield, you got placed about that.

You just don't think of the conservatives having a shop where the numbers from the last election say, If they got the same swing this time that they got last time, then they got a good chance.

Crucially, that's actually a continuation of the May strategy in the 2017 election to try and take working class towns off labor because of the leave vote.

Okay, Ministerial, we've talked to us before, but you know, the last election trees in May, for all the things that she got wrong, she got 42% of the vote.

That's a big number over here in most elections.

Now she squeezed that vote as much as you could probably squeeze it to get that, in fact, one of the reasons why it was so closely in the elections because the price of squeezing that was consolidating the anti leave vote as it were.

But there's not a lot of spare meat in some of these seats for the exclusive.

They can't do it by squeezing the Brexit party again.

So the complicating path factor which you've already alluded to is the Brexit party and where they stand.

Do a sort of double of Brexit double of Brexit party here because if they stand in these seats, they could.

They could trace and take a percentage off the Tory vote because there may be taught labor, traditional labour voters who can bring themselves not to vote for Jeremy Corbyn this time.

But can they totally bring themselves to vote for the Tories, their ancient enemy?

You know, in coal field seats, former coal mining towns, So they really want to vote for the party, Mrs Thatcher.

I got my phone out, looked at a number of constituencies and someone were quite telling where the Brexit vote party vote can be the difference.

And there are quite a lot of seats, some held by the tour, is already in the North Hampton's or Milton Keen's.

Some, like Wolverhampton Southwest, where a couple of 1000 votes for the Brexit party will be the difference between victory and defeat in those seats.

And I think, actually, when you look at the big picture, the whole election obviously number one is labor Vittori as always.

But the three things that really going to determine now from this election are eight the turnout because 2017 Mel people voting in most constituencies than 2015.

And that accounts for quite a lot of the changes that causes off the back of a 70% turnout in the Brexit referendum a year before, which boosted the numbers of participation intimate about it.

Take a seat like Warrick and Linnington somewhere around here.

Oh, OK, if you tell me where the other parts aren't anywhere is information.

What can I pick out one of them, I think Hardly pool.

Okay, so there, for example, Richard Tice is a very high profile member of the Brexit Party is standing in a traditional labor town where It's quite a big ask to get people to go go Torrey right, so that's got a good example.

It is really interesting because don't okay, I believe you.

Nigel Farage has said he thinks the Brexit party will take more votes off labor than off.

The conservative All expert opinion says the opposite that for every two votes takes all three of late of the conservative take one off labor.

But there are places on these sort of ways were It's undoubtedly truth that there was a chunk of Brexit party vote which was there for the taking and it wouldn't go to the concert.

So it's not completely falls point and if they targeted really carefully, it could make a difference.

But there are some seats where they've been very, very strong.

Stoke on Trent is one back mantle of Dagenham and rein him is another way.

These with this vote matters, don't come back to work and let me tell a minute because there's an interesting constituency were just agreeing that there are disrupted their anyway.

It's a massive disrupted the Brexit politics coming into your seat where the majority labour labour currently hold it majority about 1200.

The number of votes in the last election went up considerably, but the Brexit party could make a real difference because there is a significant white light plus vote in there.

On the other hand was a really large student vote, So it's the kind of place where the brakes gotta make it.

It's also the liberal Democrats could make it because they've got squeezed.

And I think the big issue is how much can the conservative squeeze the Brexit party?

How much can labor screws the liberal Democrats by either of those parties?

It's very bad news for their respective larger Yeah, brother or sisters.

Yeah, So I want to come onto the Lib Dems because I want to talk about this battleground here which at the moment, the map of the south of England, with the exception of London.

When you look at it, it's absolutely blue.

This is going to be a hugely important target area for the Lib Dems.

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Drawing the UK election's battle lines | The Road to Brexit (s1 ep 4)

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