Name: Probability with Tim Horton's Roll up the Rim (University Intro to Stats 3 15 13)
Uploaded: 2020-03-13T06:23:26.000Z
Duration: 14 min 1 s
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Present continuous

Okay, so we're gonna talk about the probability, um, involving rolls off the rim, Uh, which is a contest.

Past simple

So we did a little research we discovered on average Tim Hortons cells about three million coffees every day.

That's probably actually a little bit higher, because this is probably taken from an average over the year or something.

But we'll just take these numbers to make it simpler for us.

So they sell three million coffee today, and we know that rule the rim we researched again for this year, which was 2013.

It started on Fed, I think 18 and went to March 17.

Okay, so that's a month, which is four weeks.

Okay, so four weeks, we've got to convert it two days time, seven days a week.

So this event of rolled to room last for 28 days may sell three million coffees per day.

Okay, Now the discrepancies in probability a lot of times they tell you that you have what, a one in six chance of winning, says right, One in six chance of winning.

But many people, well, by nine coffees and not win anything where you said you've won five times.

So you're doing way better than what the probability is, where other people are doing Terrible compared to that probability.

Well, let's tryto make sense of this using empirical probability, which we talk about, and law of large numbers and then theoretical probability.

So the idea here is let's try to actually calculate how many coffees are winners in this case.

So assuming that they're selling three million coffees a day over the course of 28 days, we're gonna multiply these two numbers.

So this is gonna be the amount of coffees they sell, so they sell three million, a very large amount over the course of 28 days.

Okay, so we're gonna multiply that, and I'll just take a calculator out to make this a little simpler.

She had calm is here, but it looks like 84 million.

Yeah, So looks like over the course of this, they're gonna sell 84 million coffees.

Okay, So in other words, that's the total amount of coffees they sell.

So what we're gonna do is kind of convert this fraction.

They've given us their telling us we have a one in six chance.

Well, what they did is they reduced a fraction.

So they had a one in six chance, but six being thinking of our total number.

And this is through what Tim Hortons is probably made through coffee.

So they actually sell 84 1,000,000 coffees were gonna calculate how many coffees air, actually, winners in this case, we're gonna figure out what this value is here.

Well, in order to do this because their equivalent fractions, we need to multiply this by some.

And the best way to figure out is actually just take any four million and divide by six.

And that'll tell us what this number is that we multiply and then we'll have to multiply the number on talk by that same value to figure this out.

Okay, so that's just, um, a couple steps.

It looks like 14 million is the number they multiplied by.

So, in other words, there are 14 million winning cups.

But let's try to think about this in terms of practicality.

Okay, so in theory, this is our fear radical.

So if you're radical, you took Cole Probability.

They say you have a one in six chance of winning.

Okay, well, we'll use some empirical probability.

Let's say you're the person buying coffees, so we're gonna use this information we have here.

Okay, So we're gonna do some empirical, probably.

And what that is is doing the testing herself.

So let's say you are the person who buys all the coffee symptoms hands.

So in the end, how many coffees are you gonna buy If you buy all of them?

OK, so you've bought 84 million in the end, okay?

And this is leads us to our love large numbers, and that's that what they call in your book.

Okay, well, let's say you start with the first coffee you buy, and you have your options of either you win or you looks right.

Well, let's say we we went on the first coffee by great.

And then coffee number three, we lose coffee.

Let's just say that happens just because I'm sure many people have found this right.

They start with the first coffee, and then they lose, lose, lose, lose.

Well, up to this point, they want nine coffees.

Okay, so we're gonna talk about the relative frequency of each of these.

So I'm just gonna put a little line on top to help us determine the relative frequency.

Okay, well, in the 1st 1 how many coffees have you bought?

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Probability with Tim Horton's Roll up the Rim (University Intro to Stats 3 15 13)

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