Whenever something happens, like like this assassination of this of this Iranian general.

Now we see how the global economy and react social has been a shock that could not be predicted.

And now and now we see how this shot gets transmitted via oil prices through the global Alec for the global economy.

The spike has not bean really that relevant.

That hide went from 68 to 71 which is less than 10% increase.

Andi has nothing very long lived, so we've seen prices going back to the 68 level, which was what before this conflict is that marry, their assassination happened.

So it is a reason for concern.

It's a new C element, and the media are going to pick it up. 00:00:58.970 --> 00:01:0.040 Andi. 00:01:0.040 --> 00:01:3.760 It's certainly spelled concerned for the global economy, but it's more. 00:01:3.880 --> 00:01:9.270 It's a sin Thomas as that signal of whether this company is going to escalate or not. 00:01:9.270 --> 00:01:13.080 I would make all the difference so far I could say, Well, so far, so good.

I mean, not really.

I mean, there's nothing good about it, but But so far we have seen these days is that for this type of for this level of conflict that the oil markets have been able to absorb it relatively quickly without a major disruption off supplies.

But this does not mean that if the conflict escalates and then the flow of oil through it or move Straits is interrupted.

And then we would be seeing much higher spikes and more longer lived spikes.

And that, of course, that is the concern.

Doesn't that that's what everybody's worried about you had.

Toe asked me whether the two main prices that affect the economy would say that you know the dollar exchange rate and the price of oil, which, and by the way they are related. 00:01:59.710 --> 00:02:2.240 In some sense that can be confined some relation between them. 00:02:2.240 --> 00:02:6.550 But but it's a crucial price of the entire economy on duh. 00:02:6.700 --> 00:02:14.380 That's why anything that affect that margin is any very relevant source off uncertainty on risk to the global economy.

So we should always keep a night.

It's one of the numbers that they always have in my database, and I update every week and and they keep a track off.

And anybody who's interested in the micro economy must be aware off the price of oil, every micro economic scenario made by governments when they their budget projections includes a scenario for the price of oil.

Depending on whether you know they get it right or wrong, they're they're projections.

That scenario is gonna be more or less accurate and again, that good condition, all the spending and government revenues and and government spending decisions.

So so it's really very hard toe find anywhere in the in the global economy, where the price of oil is not.

It's not unimportant element. 00:02:59.570 --> 00:03:4.940 The whole planet has not forgotten that in the seventies there was this major bought off. 00:03:5.360 --> 00:03:11.270 We called stagflation inflation and unemployment that was created by by the first large oil shock.

So oil is all pervasive.

It's everywhere in the economy.

It affects virtually every country of some countries are producers and sometimes our consumers.

But but both of them get distorted by this by this global price before.

But on the other hand, where we have seen in the last 20 years is a big increase in in fracking and other shale oils.

Other other alternative sources off producing oil.

Onda, which has resulted in the U.

S.

Four months ago becoming for the first time Annette oil exporter.

It exported about 90,000 barrels more more than it's important, which means that the dependency on Middle East oil for the US economy now which much smaller until has changed the the balance between producers. 00:03:59.720 --> 00:04:5.010 Now there's more energy from renewables worldwide, so so again took to produce the killer. 00:04:5.010 --> 00:04:11.750 What's that We need power or our devices, appliances, mobility and all the other.

All the other uses affinity.

We're We're using less oil on the finally, All these appliances.

People really don't remind energy by itself.

Baby man, they usually doesn't import it.

It's an important most in almost every production process.

So most off the things we way really demand which, such as mobility or refrigeration or heat, they they have become more efficient.

Now, another using less kilowatts per unit off refrigeration or pretty unit of heating or opportunity off mobility.

So again, that reduces the share foil in consumption.

We've seen all that put everything together on.

Yes, it is concerned that that the old supply channels in the Middle East might be disrupted by by by this political conflict. 00:04:59.840 --> 00:05:7.140 But it is not a concern, as biggest it was in the seventies or even in the nineties arranges off prices that they're going to be much more contained. 00:05:7.140 --> 00:05:10.310 It will be very surprised if we see oil 140.

If there is another general nice conflict, of course.

I mean, they don't know The bets are off on where we could see much bigger spikes on Owen.

I mean, we can and maybe we should imagine oil at 200.

You know, in a very stress scenario with her, without large generalized conflict in the Middle East, that could certainly happened.