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  • you are seen as somebody who has said there might be a chance of a recession at some point.

  • Do you see any chance of a recession in 2019 or 2020?

  • I think that it's probably a 25% chance in each of those years, probably of a recession.

  • Um, I think the important thing is Thio I'm big on principles, right?

  • So I think that it's important to understand how the economic machine works.

  • And so when I'm looking at that, I want to maybe take a few minutes and get into the important things that are pertain to a recession cause a recession.

  • You know, whether you is two negative quarters of GDP and we're gonna be hovering, I think fairly close to that level.

  • And there's a certain variation around it.

  • But the bigger things are a combination of the absence of effectiveness of central bank policies.

  • So I hope we can talk about those together with wealth gap, large wealth gap.

  • So when the next downturn comes, what that will look like socially, politically and so on, Um, the elections, which is a issue between let's say, capitalists and Socialists or the rich and the poor, and then the emergence of China and in relationship to the United States.

  • Those four factors are factors that have not existed since the thirties.

  • I think they're unique, and so when we get into the question of the recession, I think it's how that will affect those other things and those things affect it.

you are seen as somebody who has said there might be a chance of a recession at some point.

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