Sky News reporting that a British scientist has apparently made a breakthrough in the race for a vaccine.

Former FDA Commissioner Dr Scott Godly Joining us now on the squawk news line with his reaction.

Dr.

Gottlieb, of course, also a CNBC contributor and a Fizer board member.

Also with us on set to talk about the impact on business in China is Jim MacGregor.

He is chairman of Apco Worldwide Greater China Region Doctor Godly.

We're gonna start off with you here.

Obviously, these reports, they're just reports.

Are you finding some optimism, though In them well, I think that a vaccine strategy here could be helpful, but probably for what we might refer to as the second wave.

I think if the virus itself does become, um, we do see outbreak going into the spring in the summer.

Hopefully it won't become epidemic unity, United States and the spring and the summer will present a natural backstop towards the transmission of a Corona virus.

Then coming back in the fall, you might see the virus resurface and at that point of vaccine could potentially be ready and would be very helpful But I think for the immediate future were very likely to see outbreaks of this virus here in the United States.

Hopefully small outbreaks.

The vaccine isn't gonna be ready in time.

Yeah, you wrote an op ed in the Wall Street Journal in and basically the gist of the and I urge people to go read it, but the for those who haven't I haven't seen yet.

That just is basically this Anybody who has any kind of what looks to be pneumonia even if they have not been to China or been around people who have just been in China that you believe that we should start testing them for the Corona virus.

But is there a risk that could set off an unnecessary panic?

Well, not anyone with pneumonia, So if you if you present with atypical pneumonia your negative for flu and your negative for bacterial infection and you're negative on what we call this multiplex test that test our whole panel of viral causes of pneumonia and you still have a suspicious pneumonia, I think those individuals should be tested.

We now see multiple nodes of community transmission outside of China in other countries where the virus itself is propagating in the community without any connection to travel to China.

And it's likely that there's cases here in the US right now where people are spreading this at a low level.

We haven't detected it yet who haven't traveled to China.

Remember, we're just testing people from China who present with significant symptoms like, ah, high fever or pneumonia.

But only probably about 20% of people actually developed pneumonia from this virus.

It might be even less than that.

So for every one person that we catch, we might be missing eight or nine who had mild symptoms but didn't present to a doctor with him.

Jim, you're normally in Shanghai.

Yes, but you're here.

When did you get here?

I left middle of Middle of January.

Don't worry if I You're here because you're trying to avoid the virus.

I understand.

Well, I was on a business trip and then Chinese New Year's, and so I'm staying, and I don't know when I'll go back.

That's the case with a lot of the expat business people.

They left China for Chinese New Year's, and now they're stuck offshore watching, waiting to see what happens.

It's a reflection of the disruption on what your client saying is you.

Well, I tell you, I'm in.

I'm in touch with a lot of people running businesses in China, and they are hunkered down there.

They're checking on their employees every day in their houses.

People are not leaving their homes except to go out and get vegetables on.

But I don't know when business is going to start up again.

Not to make, you know, talk unseemly about credit and loans and, you know, business.

But it's a highly leveraged country with a lot of companies out there that have borrowed a lot.

And the longer they are shut down, the less likely they can actually generate any cash flow in revenue to keep their business business running and pay off those loans.

I mean, could there be a very serious ripple effect beyond the immediate shutdown that we're talking about?

I think there could be a ripple effect, but I don't see it very serious.

Remember, the four big Chinese banks are basically the Finance Ministry.

They can handle anything for a while.

I wouldn't I wouldn't go on gloom and doom, but this is going to hit the world because China, still the manufacturing center of the world, no supply chains are shut down.

And the lead doctor in China who is monitoring the virus?

He just came out yesterday, and he said he originally predicted the P could be now.

Now he's predicting two weeks ahead and businesses were planning on starting back at work on the 10th and I don't think that's gonna happen.

I think this is going to keep rolling along.

And even even customs doesn't have people that can man customs.

Everybody is wearing masks sitting home and you people sending me pictures of just empty roads.

How long you think?

I mean, how long this goes on for this could go on for many weeks.

A couple months?

Couple months?

Yeah.

People are scared.

Member.

Five million people left Wuhan before they clamp down on it.

Where they gum.

Where are they?

They're all over China.

My point.

And and so, people, Actually, Dr Gottlieb gets any worse before gets better.

Well, you know, you.

Because of the measures that China implemented, you would think that you'd start to see a break in the transmission of the virus in China.

I think it's going to get worse globally.

We now see multiple nodes to me outside of China, Hong Kong being one of them, Thailand seems to be another where there's community transmission so we could potentially see epidemic spread in those regions.

Those regions still have travelers coming to the United States.

So we will see more cases here, and a lot of them will be undetected.

So I think we're gonna have to grapple with outbreaks in the U.

S.

I mean, I think we need to prepare the public for that.

That does not mean it.

It's gonna become epidemic in the United States.

I think we can still prevent that.

I'm hearing two things in this segment.

One doctor got leave.

This hopes about, ah, vaccine or, you know, way too hopeful.

There is no way that they would be in time to deal with the immediate situation right now and then you telling us that this is going on way longer than people expected when back in China, they're saying we thought the peak would be now and now we gotta push it back.

I mean, those air, too.

Two very different things than what I was just thinking a few hours ago.

Yeah, the businesses scrambling right now.

Basically, the business and foreign business right now in China is focused on helping China on getting supplies and getting mass.

Mayors are calling up foreign business saying, Please, please help us, which for the bold Communist Party that can control everything, they're showing all these vulnerabilities.

It's amazing what's going on, what the repercussions of this is gonna be, where the follow on for business later is gonna be very interesting to see, because there's been big tension with the trade war between business and the government, and now the government is reaching out, asking for in business for help.

So what is what's that gonna lead to?

I don't know if this is really a changing dynamic.