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  • Subject to revision.

  • So Robert, the Brexit saga becomes

  • more complicated by the day.

  • We're going to try and map what might happen next.

  • Yes.

  • It may get very messy.

  • But can we have a go?

  • Yeah, we've had a request from Dominic in Downing Street.

  • So what's going to happen next?

  • He wants us to do his grid for him.

  • Yes.

  • So here we are.

  • So to start with, is the chance of any deal between the UK

  • and the EU in time to get through the Commons,

  • and with a possibility of getting through the Commons now

  • off the table after the ill-feeling in the Commons...

  • No.

  • This week?

  • I'm not sure it is.

  • Lots of things are possible, but nothing is yet likely,

  • and I think that's where we are.

  • So, could he get a deal, and could he get the deal

  • through parliament?

  • And the second, they're both bound up together,

  • because one of the issues with European Union

  • is could he actually get this deal?

  • So could he still get a deal?

  • Yes, he could.

  • It depends how far he's prepared to move.

  • Then we get, could he get it through parliament?

  • I still think, just about, he could.

  • I know that there was so much ill-feeling yesterday.

  • The red, the red pen is coming up.

  • So this is the Labour party pen.

  • OK.

  • So I think he upset a lot of people in parliament

  • on Wednesday night.

  • People talked about 20 to 30 Labour MPs.

  • I've always thought that was a little high.

  • What I think is some of those people are saying,

  • well, you know, we just can't deal with this man.

  • He's, my own feeling is that if he comes back with a deal,

  • that the Democratic Unionists are prepared to live with

  • and most of his own party are prepared to live with,

  • there's going to be this enormous sense of relief,

  • and it will change the entire political dynamic.

  • So a lot of the bad feeling that exists now I think

  • will get swept away by the: oh thank God we've got a deal.

  • We're not going to crash out.

  • Whether it's quite enough, we don't know.

  • I think 20 to 30 is too much.

  • But if the Conservative party conference is still

  • going ahead, the kind of inflammatory - in some people's

  • view - rhetoric that Boris Johnson himself,

  • members of his cabinet, have been

  • using about the opposition, about the Remainers, about even

  • the judges in the Supreme Court who ruled against him

  • at the beginning of the week.

  • Surely that will be worse at a Conservative party conference

  • and that will increase the kind of toxicity that might

  • prevent...

  • No, I think you're right.

  • ...this group of P's...

  • group of Labour MPs supporting a deal.

  • I think that's right.

  • This gets wrapped up in the second scenario.

  • Either he gets the deal or he doesn't get one.

  • He is preparing for both options,

  • and if he doesn't get a deal he's

  • going to have to go to the country at some point quite

  • soon after an election, quite soon,

  • and say these awful MPs stopped me getting my deal.

  • So he's running the two things together.

  • But he also is using the threat of that kind of election to put

  • pressure on those Labour MPs...

  • Yes.

  • ...to cave, and get his deal through, if he gets it.

  • Because the people he's targeting

  • are MPs in Leave constituencies, and they're

  • the ones most vulnerable to that kind of rhetoric.

  • But you're completely right.

  • I mean, the rhetoric is really quite appalling.

  • On the other hand, you know, I was in a sort of huddle with,

  • as we say, a senior Downing Street aide...

  • Who could that be?

  • ...this morning.

  • And he, I mean, one of the phrases he used was,

  • the surrender bill, which is how they describe

  • the bill-stopping no-deal deal.

  • That's our new £350m for the health service,

  • which was a contentious slogan for the Brit...

  • for the Vote Leave bus.

  • They believe this row is getting that phrase, surrender bill,

  • into circulation.

  • They believe that's a message that's

  • getting through to the voters they're targeting,

  • so there's a lot of brinkmanship in this.

  • So the surrender election - surrender all,

  • stand firm in a patriotic way behind Boris.

  • All of this, however chaotic, it looks step by step...

  • It's nothing as to how chaotic it could be.

  • It's nothing, true.

  • But also, are you really trying to maintain that it's still

  • part of the Downing Street plan, however

  • bad it looks day to day?

  • Being found to have acted illegally

  • in suspending parliament.

  • I mean, surely a substantial section of the traditional Tory

  • electorate must be worried about this

  • I think, of course this was not part of the plan.

  • They messed up spectacularly with the prorogation

  • of parliament, leave aside the fact that it's since

  • been declared unlawful.

  • It forced the hands of the opposition.

  • It forced the hands of the Remainers.

  • It forced their own Tory rebels to vote against them, which

  • then forced him to expel them.

  • So it's been a terrible, terrible miscalculation.

  • That reminds me of the old, to rephrase the old joke,

  • you know: it wasn't just unlawful, it was incompetent.

  • Right.

  • It was worse than that; it was incompetent.

  • And so, it's a massive mistake.

  • There's no question about that.

  • And I think it's interesting, the extent to which Boris

  • Johnson is relying a little bit more

  • on the other half of his Downing Street operation,

  • which is the Eddie Lister part, you know, the David Frost part?

  • Seeing if they can work this through.

  • But they are running both at the same time.

  • You mean, and when you say work this through.

  • Work a deal, that's right.

  • You mean, continue to pursue...

  • Yes.

  • ...a deal?

  • Yes.

  • ...which is reliant on sorting out the Northern Ireland

  • problem...

  • Yes.

  • ...and a customs union problem.

  • Yep.

  • It's contingent upon having a solution to the hard border

  • in Northern Ireland.

  • Theresa May, as you know, she had a backstop proposal,

  • which essentially meant the whole of the UK

  • would be kept inside the customs union

  • and aligned with the single market

  • if they couldn't find an answer.

  • This was too much for Boris Johnson and the hard Brexiters.

  • So they're now looking at a Northern Ireland only solution,

  • but they can't go the full hog, I think,

  • which is what was originally proposed by Barnier back

  • in 2017...

  • that you simply almost break off Northern Ireland

  • and treat it, for the purposes of single market and customs,

  • you know, as if it was still part of the EU.

  • That's hard for the unionists to swallow.

  • So the question is, how far can he creep up to that line?

  • And equally, how far will the Irish and the rest of the EU

  • allow a bit of creative ambiguity?

  • I think you know, if they think Boris Johnson has

  • got 80, 90 per cent of the way.

  • I don't know what the number is.

  • Will they give him a bit of flexibility

  • to get the rest of the way?

  • But two problems, surely, to even get

  • to this bit of agreeing a deal with the rest of the EU

  • before you can even try to get it past the Commons,

  • won't the Europeans be looking at what's happened

  • in British politics this week?

  • Doesn't that make it less likely than ever

  • that he can get this deal before even trying

  • to get it through the Commons?

  • Because his credibility, surely, is...

  • I mean, if you think back to 2017, 2018,

  • surely one of the problems with Theresa May's premiership

  • was that she was going and making agreements in Brussels,

  • and then coming back and being defeated

  • in the House of Commons.

  • And they got really sick of that.

  • Yep, no.

  • It's absolutely one of the two problems.

  • There are two obstacles, one of which, as you say,

  • is questions as to whether he could get a deal

  • through the House of Commons.

  • But in a sense that's the second question,

  • because the first question.

  • My handwriting is so bad that we've given up.

  • But question number one is, is he

  • actually prepared to do the work to get

  • a deal in the first place?

  • And at the moment the European Union

  • isn't seeing enough to think that they've

  • got a deal in place.

  • So we're actually, we're still up here somewhere, aren't we?

  • Yeah, OK.

  • I got it in the wrong place.

  • Yeah.

  • But we're still beyond that point.

  • Before we can get to here, yeah.

  • And the really complicating thing about it

  • is that, actually, the deal is the easy route.

  • That's the gentle path in this process.

  • He has to get a deal, he has to get

  • it voted through parliament, he has

  • to drive through the legislation in about 10 days

  • if he's to meet his October 31st deadline,

  • and that's the easy option.

  • And can we just talk about those 20-odd Tory

  • MPs who currently don't have the Conservative whip?

  • Because, so there's what?

  • There's 20.

  • One of them, Sam Gyimah, has defected

  • to the Liberal Democrats.

  • Has gone to Liberal Democrats.

  • But there are still 20.

  • Plus Ann Barrett.

  • There's 21 still.

  • Ah, 21.

  • That's right, of course, because she resigned from the cabinet

  • afterwards.

  • So 21 Tory MPs.

  • Do they come back onside if he gets a deal

  • and puts it to parliament?

  • So can he add, potentially, this 20 to 21?

  • Mostly yes; I think they do.

  • So they come on board, as well?

  • I think there are still a couple who quite like the referendum.

  • Dominic Grieve, I think, who would probably

  • want much closer alignment.

  • It's not 100% per cent that he could get them,

  • but my bet is he'd get most of them back on board, yes.

  • And he probably ought to invite them

  • back in to the Conservative party or the one sticking

  • point on this is that I think at least half of them

  • are standing down now at the next election,

  • so they don't have any great incentive to play nice.

  • Right.

  • But they don't like being non-Tories, do they?

  • No they don't.

  • And actually, their language is very

  • much of wanting to find a way through.

  • They're still sitting on the government benches.

  • It's very noticeable.

  • So I think most of them would come back, yes.

  • But we haven't even got on to yet the fact that all

  • the opposition parties.

  • The 'Remania', the Remain opposition parties, which,

  • of course, loosely includes the Labour party,

  • are also planning to gang up on Boris Johnson if they think

  • he's even in danger of getting to a no-deal scenario.

  • So that's complicated, too.

  • Yeah, but that comes after, because if he's

  • got a deal before the deadline for having

  • to seek an extension, which is October the 19th,

  • European Council is on the 17th.

  • So if he's got a deal, or almost got a deal by then,

  • he can try and put it back to parliament.

  • Now, he gets most of those 20 back, I'd guess,

  • and I think you think the same way.

  • Yes, definitely.

  • If he's managed to keep the Democratic Unionist

  • party accepting of this, on board, then he'll

  • manage to keep most of his Brexit hardliners onside

  • as well.

  • The number of people who hold out

  • would probably be in single figures, be quite low.

  • At that point, he, then doesn't need 20 to 30 Labour MPs.

  • He probably needs only about 10 to get that, get it through.

  • That might be doable.

  • I mean, you know, at current attrition rate he's alienating

  • Labour MPs quite fast.

  • Yes.

  • Maybe it's not, but I think it could be doable.

  • I think there are so many people in parliament who really

  • do fear that they're alienating too many of the public

  • by not getting a deal through.

  • I think if he comes back with one,

  • there is a decent chance he will get it through parliament.

  • Do we...

  • But that's obviously a big if.

  • So do we feel confident enough to put a probability on this?

  • On either getting the deal by 17th of October, or soon after?

  • And then getting it through?

  • I don't feel confident enough to say he's going to get the deal.

  • I do think, if he gets it, he is more likely

  • than not to get it through parliament.

  • That'll be my guess.

  • I think he'll carry the day on that.

  • I think it'll be very hard for the Labour MPs who take him

  • over the line, because they're not just voting for Brexit

  • they're voting for Boris Johnson's Brexit.

  • But again, some of them aren't standing again, either.

  • There are quite a few independent Labour MPs.

  • I think he'd just make it.

  • That'd be my guess.

  • So, what about this?

  • Let's just explore this.

  • If it's heading for this, if it's heading for no-deal deal,

  • then this...

  • That's when it gets really hairy.

  • Yeah.

  • So that's when this whole idea of trying to trigger a vote

  • of no confidence in Boris jumps...

  • Yep.

  • ...and forming some sort of alternative temporary

  • government...

  • Yep.

  • ...made up of lots of different opposition parties.

  • We've got the Lib Dems who are now up to 18

  • because of all the defectors.

  • We've got the SNP and, what?

  • The're 40-odd, 40-odd MPs in the SNP, Scottish Nationalists.

  • The SNP seem incredibly keen to work with the Labour party...

  • They do.

  • ...at the moment, anyway, because they think they'll get

  • their...

  • They get more Green.

  • And they get their independence referendum out of it.

  • But if we take this one through the stages...

  • Yeah.

  • So we get to a point where parliament decides there's not

  • going to be a deal, where all these opposition groups say,

  • he's not going to do this - either he's not serious,

  • or it's not happening.

  • So the first thing, then, is, there

  • is legislation that says, you've got to ask for an extension.

  • So the first question is, does he actually request

  • that extension or not?

  • Lots of noise is coming from the hardliners in Downing Street.

  • There's no way he'll do it; he's found

  • some cunning secret wheeze.

  • He'll work his way around it.

  • There's an idea.

  • He'll submit two letters.

  • So, rubbish, in my opinion.

  • But it is odd, isn't it?

  • Because to say, we will observe the law,

  • and there's no way we're asking for an extension because we

  • will be leaving on October 31ST...

  • Yeah.

  • It's just noise.

  • I don't, I don't think we can take any of it very seriously.

  • He's in a real bind.

  • If he gets to the 19th...

  • Yeah.

  • ...he's in a real fix.

  • My own hunch is that, when it really comes to it,

  • he cannot break the law on this.

  • He is going to have to ask for the extension on October

  • the 19th.

  • I think much of the rhetoric of now,

  • much of the positioning of now, is about getting him

  • off the hook for having to do it,

  • so that the public believe him when he says,

  • I didn't want to do this.

  • I was absolutely forced into it; I had no choice.

  • That may work incidentally.

  • I think a lot of people will believe

  • that he had no choice about it.

  • So, what happens then?

  • Let's say he does ask for the extension.

  • Yeah.

  • If he asks for the extension, then there

  • is no reason not to give the general election,

  • except he will be less keen on it

  • because he is not going to deliver October 31st,

  • so that's a problem for him.

  • It means the Brexit party probably

  • will be standing against him.

  • That's an issue for him.

  • But I think, once the extension is secured,

  • the other parties have no reason not to bring him down

  • straightaway, and that would be my instinct that they would.

  • The interesting question is, what happens if...

  • But bring him down straightaway to go straight

  • to a general election again?

  • Yes.

  • Or bring him down to tide over again for a few weeks.

  • This idea of a caretaker government.

  • Well, there are two paths.

  • Yeah.

  • If...

  • If he hasn't asked for an extension...

  • Yeah.

  • ...to try to get out of it.

  • If he hasn't asked for an extention,

  • let's stick with this for a second.

  • OK.

  • If he has asked for it, because I can't cope with all this.

  • If he has asked for the extension,

  • there is no reason for the opposition

  • not to give him the election now,

  • because they've made him swing.

  • He's broken his word...

  • Which we think will cause him problems because...

  • We do.

  • ...I mean, as we saw earlier in the year, from March the 29th,

  • when we were supposed to leave the EU.

  • So the May government's approval rating just literally went like

  • that ovenight...

  • Yeah.

  • It was a disaster for them.

  • Yeah.

  • And the Brexit party went up.

  • Yeah.

  • When Boris Johnson...

  • are we?

  • ...got to power, the Brexit party started to fall.

  • It looked.

  • There was even, there were even a couple of polls

  • where their numbers went down to just approaching

  • single figures.

  • But now they're fairly steady at 12 per cent or 13 cent,

  • and that's way too high for his comfort.

  • So if he signs the extension I think we're into an election

  • quite quickly, unless all these parties think

  • they could get a viable and sustainable caretaker

  • government, which would actually renegotiate

  • the terms of Brexit.

  • But my hunch is they can't.

  • I don't think that...

  • That's a big ask, isn't it?

  • I think that's not stable enough.

  • Because the disagreements within those parties,

  • let alone between the parties on what they actually want.

  • I'm not sure they get a caretaker government at all.

  • But I certainly I think they could.

  • So my guess is, if he signs the extension,

  • we're quickly into an election.

  • I think that that's reasonably clear.

  • That's a prediction I'm reasonably confident of.

  • OK.

  • You agree, I think?

  • Yes, I do.

  • Yep.

  • I do, but I agree about the Brexit party

  • then being a huge problem for them.

  • So then, what if he doesn't ask for an extension,

  • or if if he starts to look so untrustworthy

  • about the extension that it seems

  • like it's not going to happen?

  • That's where it gets really - or if he signs and -

  • some people have proposed he signs and resigns -

  • that he signs the extension, but resigns immediately,

  • because he feels honour-bound to do so.

  • Honour, interesting.

  • Yeah.

  • Yes.

  • And under the terms of the Parliament Act,

  • you can't not have a prime minister,

  • so his resigning triggers the whole process of looking

  • for another prime minister, so that gets quite interesting.

  • Equally, if he hasn't signed the extension,

  • then they've got to bring him down.

  • Then you've got to get a no confidence vote,

  • because you've got to bring him down

  • to get someone who will seek the extension, while meanwhile

  • presumably chasing him through the courts for breaking

  • the law.

  • Yeah.

  • So, but that vote of no confidence

  • is only any good if you can establish some kind

  • of caretaker government.

  • Because if you bring him down and cannot establish

  • a government, then we trip over the deadline.

  • We're into an election and a no-deal Brexit automatically,

  • so there has to be a plan.

  • And this, to me, is the hardest part of all of it

  • because all of these parties are really

  • struggling to find a plan for that unity caretaker government

  • to work to do this one thing - ask for the extension

  • and call the election.

  • Fundamental problem here.

  • Yeah.

  • Jeremy Corbyn.

  • Yep.

  • It's literally all about him.

  • So only some of the other opposition parties...

  • Mm-hmm.

  • This is JC here.

  • OK.

  • Only some of the other opposition parties

  • will accept Corbyn.

  • These rebel Tories, the Remainer rebel Tories,

  • remain a real problem Tories

  • Real problem for them.

  • They will not do it.

  • The Lib Dems, they will not do it.

  • The SNP will do it.

  • Yep.

  • They're perfectly happy with it.

  • So will the Greens, so will Plaid Cymru.

  • So who's this?

  • Who is this mystery potential caretaker prime minister?

  • And even the Lib Dems, they say they won't do it.

  • And you're better-placed to know about this than me,

  • but I think that they've got the covering fire of these 20

  • Tories who won't put Jeremy Corbyn in power.

  • The Lib Dems, if it was the choice between no-deal Brexit

  • or put Corbyn in power, I think they'd be in a real spot.

  • And for all there, we are the real party of Remain.

  • If they are the orchestrators of no no-deal,

  • that's not a good place for them.

  • So I think there'd be in an interesting spot

  • if the numbers added up.

  • But happily for Jo Swinson. they don't add up. ...

  • Yes.

  • Happily for them, they have the cover of the numbers.

  • If not, the numbers.

  • They don't tally up.

  • So then you get back to who is this mystery person?

  • And I don't know the answer, because I think

  • if you're Jeremy Corbyn, you cannot allow yourself to be

  • bypassed or marginalised in this way.

  • Certainly, you can't allow it to be another member of the Labour

  • party.

  • I know there's been talk of Harriet Harman or Margaret

  • Beckett.

  • Yes.

  • That's the nice feminine hair on this, on the mystery person

  • here.

  • And, you know, and in a sense, there's

  • been talk of Margaret Beckett or Harriet Harman.

  • But I think it's a fundamental problem for Jeremy Corbyn

  • to allow any other member of the Labour party to become prime

  • minister, because it might give the very many Labour MPs who

  • don't like the idea of Jeremy Corbyn's prime minister ideas.

  • So I don't think he can tolerate that;

  • I think that's totally impossible.

  • So the question then is, is there somebody from another

  • party who the Labour party could tolerate becoming as prime

  • minister?

  • And who could unite these ex-Tories, these Lib Dems, SNP,

  • Labour, and the various other independents and Greens,

  • et cetera.

  • And the name that we hear is Kenneth Clarke.

  • Yeah.

  • So Kenneth Clark, former Conservative chancellor,

  • definitely standing down at the next election.

  • So wouldn't stay on as prime minister.

  • Most of these parties could get behind him.

  • Personally, I still think it's difficult...

  • Yes.

  • ...to see.

  • Yes.

  • How...

  • Do you think, do you know?

  • You don't think the Labour party?

  • I mean, I really don't know the answer to this question.

  • But again, I come to that point.

  • You're Jeremy Corbyn.

  • You're the leader of the opposition.

  • You feel this should be you, this caretaker person,

  • and you're going to put a Conservative in power?

  • And you're going to put your Labour MPs is behind

  • the Conservative prime minister, albeit only for two weeks

  • or whatever?

  • I think, for him, it's really tricky.

  • Because if you look beyond this moment to the election that

  • comes, we all know that there's quite a decent chance of a hung

  • parliament being the outcome, in which point

  • you're back into these kind of negotiations.

  • And once people have thought...

  • You've undermined the principle of yourself

  • as the old fierce leader.

  • Exactly.

  • Once we've worked round Jeremy Corbyn once,

  • we might, we might get a taste for it.

  • Yeah, yeah.

  • So I think it's a real problem, and I don't exactly

  • know how they'll do it.

  • My hunch is they'd have to find a way

  • to do it because otherwise in this circumstance, when

  • Boris Johnson's defied the law, there's no extension.

  • They've got to bring him down, they've

  • got to do something to get this election called.

  • They have to find a way to cobble this alliance together,

  • so maybe in the end Jeremy Corbyn holds his nose

  • and allows a retiree Labour MP to do it.

  • Or maybe they choose John Burke.

  • I don't know.

  • But if they don't, then we're into no-deal

  • and everything's failed.

  • So I think they'd have to find a way to do it.

  • But nobody I've spoken to - I don't know if you've

  • spoken to anyone - has an answer to exactly how

  • that's going to work.

  • But is it also the case that all of this -

  • if they can put this thing together - this also,

  • via avoiding no-deal, still leads to a general election?

  • Or is there the possibility that this also

  • leads to a second referendum?

  • There are some in these parties who

  • would prefer that to be the outcome because they think

  • a general election wouldn't actually

  • settle the Brexit question.

  • You have to syphon off the Brexit issue

  • into another referendum.

  • Certainly some of these parties would like to go straight

  • to a second referendum, but you've got to have a deal

  • to put to that second referendum otherwise...

  • Yes.

  • ...the choice is between Remain and no-deal.

  • And if there's no-deal, what deal

  • are you putting as the choice here?

  • The only deal that exists if Boris Johnson hasn't got one

  • is Theresa May's deal.

  • So then, you've got to have a second referendum

  • on Theresa May's deal.

  • Is any of this coalition stable enough

  • to get that legislation through?

  • You've got to... getting a referendum is not quick;

  • you've got to legislate for it.

  • Then, you've actually got to agree the wording

  • with the Electoral Commission.

  • I would imagine that if they were to get second referendum,

  • they'd also want to play with the electorate.

  • They might decide that 16-year-olds could vote.

  • They might...

  • Labour has said, yeah.

  • Yeah.

  • They might think that maybe European nationals

  • resident in Britain could vote.

  • So that requires changes in the law;

  • that requires electoral registers being assembled.

  • This is not a quick process.

  • So on balance I think it points back to the election more.

  • And then maybe they're after him, as well?

  • On the other hand, if I was looking

  • for the most likely point for the second referendum

  • - I'm going to have one of these thick pens now.

  • I've had enough of this, had enough of this.

  • If I was looking for the most likely point where

  • a second referendum could be inserted into this process

  • before an election, I would put it here,

  • on Boris Johnson's deal.

  • I would say the best chance - and at the moment I don't think

  • the numbers are there for it - but the best chance is they

  • attach a second referendum condition to the deal that

  • Boris Johnson brings back and say, we'll pass your deal if...

  • On condition.

  • On condition.

  • On condition.

  • Put it to the voters.

  • Yeah.

  • I don't know it would pass the House of Commons.

  • It might be that everyone's so fatigued they think, yes, yes

  • for God's sake.

  • Let's send it back to the voters.

  • But the one thing the Conservative party

  • is fairly united on is not wanting a second referendum.

  • So in the end, I think it all does point to an election.

  • I think it points to an election probably late November.

  • But...

  • An election that doesn't necessarily solve the problem?

  • No, because...

  • Because you might actually end up

  • with a parliament quite as fractured as the one

  • we have already.

  • So we are all - I think we all agree there

  • is going to be an election.

  • The only things we haven't yet settled

  • are whether it's an election after a deal, no deal,

  • an extension, or no extension.

  • I'm glad we could help.

  • I think we've cleared this up, Robert.

  • I think we've successfully, successfully made sense

  • of the whole...

  • I'm just going to bike this over to Downing street now.

  • OK.

  • Off you go.

Subject to revision.

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