B1 Intermediate 17 Folder Collection
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>> TODAY WE TAKE A MOMENTOUS
>> TODAY WE TAKE A MOMENTOUS STEP, ONE THAT HAS NEVER BEEN
STEP, ONE THAT HAS NEVER BEEN TAKEN BEFORE WITH CHINA TOWARD A
TAKEN BEFORE WITH CHINA TOWARD A FUTURE OF FAIR AND RECIPROCAL
FUTURE OF FAIR AND RECIPROCAL TRADE AS WE SIGN PHASE 1 OF THE
TRADE AS WE SIGN PHASE 1 OF THE HISTORIC TRADE DEAL BETWEEN THE
HISTORIC TRADE DEAL BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA.
UNITED STATES AND CHINA. TOGETHER WE ARE WRITING THE
TOGETHER WE ARE WRITING THE WRONGS OF THE PAST AND ECONOMIC
WRONGS OF THE PAST AND ECONOMIC JUSTICE AND SECURITY FOR
JUSTICE AND SECURITY FOR AMERICAN WORKERS, FARMERS AND
AMERICAN WORKERS, FARMERS AND FAMILIES.
FAMILIES. PAUL: PRESIDENT TRUMP SIGNING
PAUL: PRESIDENT TRUMP SIGNING PHASE 1 TRADE AGREEMENT WITH
PHASE 1 TRADE AGREEMENT WITH CHINA ON WEDNESDAY CALLING IT A
CHINA ON WEDNESDAY CALLING IT A VICTORY FOR AMERICAN WORKERS,
VICTORY FOR AMERICAN WORKERS, FARMERS AND FAMILIES, THE TRADE
FARMERS AND FAMILIES, THE TRADE TRUCE WITH BEIJING COMES AFTER
TRUCE WITH BEIJING COMES AFTER 2-YEAR TARIFF CAMPAIGN THAT
2-YEAR TARIFF CAMPAIGN THAT IMPOSED SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC
IMPOSED SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC COST ON BOTH COUNTRIES AND AS
COST ON BOTH COUNTRIES AND AS SENATE TOOK UP ANOTHER TRADE
SENATE TOOK UP ANOTHER TRADE AGREEMENT THURSDAY WITH A
AGREEMENT THURSDAY WITH A BIPARTISAN MAJORITY VOTE TO GO
BIPARTISAN MAJORITY VOTE TO GO SEND THE LONG-AWAITED USMCA TO
SEND THE LONG-AWAITED USMCA TO PRESIDENT TRUMP'S DESK TO
PRESIDENT TRUMP'S DESK TO SIGNING, JOHN MURPHY, SENIOR
SIGNING, JOHN MURPHY, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT FOR INTERNATIONAL
VICE PRESIDENT FOR INTERNATIONAL POLICY, CHAMBER OF COMMERCE,
POLICY, CHAMBER OF COMMERCE, WELCOME BACK, JOHN, GOOD TO SEE
WELCOME BACK, JOHN, GOOD TO SEE YOU.
YOU. NOW THAT YOU'VE HAD A CHANCE TO
NOW THAT YOU'VE HAD A CHANCE TO LOOK AT THE DETAILS OF THIS
LOOK AT THE DETAILS OF THIS TRADE AGREEMENT WHICH ARE
TRADE AGREEMENT WHICH ARE FINALLY RELEASED THIS WEEK, HOW
FINALLY RELEASED THIS WEEK, HOW SIGNIFICANT IS THIS IN ITS
SIGNIFICANT IS THIS IN ITS POTENTIAL TO CHANGE CHINESE
POTENTIAL TO CHANGE CHINESE TRADING BEHAVIOR?
TRADING BEHAVIOR? >> WE THINK IT'S A SIGNIFICANT
>> WE THINK IT'S A SIGNIFICANT STEP FORWARD, FIRST OF ALL,
STEP FORWARD, FIRST OF ALL, BECAUSE IT IS GOING TO BRING
BECAUSE IT IS GOING TO BRING BACK A GREATER MEASURE OF
BACK A GREATER MEASURE OF CERTAINTY TO U.S. ECONOMIC
CERTAINTY TO U.S. ECONOMIC RELATIONS WITH CHINA AND
RELATIONS WITH CHINA AND CERTAINTY ABOUT THE TARIFF
CERTAINTY ABOUT THE TARIFF INVOLVEMENT, AS RECENTLY AS A
INVOLVEMENT, AS RECENTLY AS A MONTH AGO WE WERE LOOKING AT THE
MONTH AGO WE WERE LOOKING AT THE PROSPECT OF TARIFFS BEING
PROSPECT OF TARIFFS BEING EXTENDED $100 BILLION PLUS OF
EXTENDED $100 BILLION PLUS OF CONSUMER GOODS WE IMPORT FROM
CONSUMER GOODS WE IMPORT FROM CHINA, IT'S GOOD TO SEE THAT WE
CHINA, IT'S GOOD TO SEE THAT WE ARE NOT EXPANDING THE TRADE WAR.
ARE NOT EXPANDING THE TRADE WAR. AS WE'VE GONE THROUGH SOME OF
AS WE'VE GONE THROUGH SOME OF THE REFORMS THAT ARE IN THE
THE REFORMS THAT ARE IN THE AGREEMENT, WE ARE PLEASED TO SEE
AGREEMENT, WE ARE PLEASED TO SEE SOME THAT WE THINK ARE
SOME THAT WE THINK ARE MEANINGFUL, FOR INSTANCE, NEW
MEANINGFUL, FOR INSTANCE, NEW PROTECTIONS FOR INTELLECTUAL
PROTECTIONS FOR INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY, OPENING UP OF THE
PROPERTY, OPENING UP OF THE FINANCIAL SERVICE'S MARKET, THE
FINANCIAL SERVICE'S MARKET, THE CHALLENGE TO SEE HOW THESE ARE
CHALLENGE TO SEE HOW THESE ARE IMPLEMENTED IN THE MONTHS AHEAD.
IMPLEMENTED IN THE MONTHS AHEAD. PAUL: YEAH, THAT'S THE BIG POINT
PAUL: YEAH, THAT'S THE BIG POINT HERE, I'VE BEEN AT THIS FOR A
HERE, I'VE BEEN AT THIS FOR A LONG TIME AND, I MEAN, I DON'T
LONG TIME AND, I MEAN, I DON'T KNOW HOW MANY -- WAS IT 2 YEARS
KNOW HOW MANY -- WAS IT 2 YEARS AGO OR 30 WHEN CHINA PROMISE
AGO OR 30 WHEN CHINA PROMISE TODAY OPEN UP THE FINANCIAL
TODAY OPEN UP THE FINANCIAL SERVICE'S MARKET, SO IN A WAY
SERVICE'S MARKET, SO IN A WAY THE MOST INTERESTING THING ABOUT
THE MOST INTERESTING THING ABOUT THE DEAL IS THE CONSULTATION AND
THE DEAL IS THE CONSULTATION AND POTENTIAL ENFORCEMENT MECHANISM
POTENTIAL ENFORCEMENT MECHANISM THAT IS IF YOU'RE AN AMERICAN
THAT IS IF YOU'RE AN AMERICAN COMPANY IN CHINA AND YOU FEEL
COMPANY IN CHINA AND YOU FEEL THAT YOU'VE BEEN HARM AND
THAT YOU'VE BEEN HARM AND INSTEAD OF GOING TO REGULATOR
INSTEAD OF GOING TO REGULATOR YOU CAN GO TO U.S. TRADE
YOU CAN GO TO U.S. TRADE REPRESENTATIVE AND THAT WILL
REPRESENTATIVE AND THAT WILL TRIGGER A BILATERAL PROCESS OF
TRIGGER A BILATERAL PROCESS OF REVIEW, DO YOU AGREE?
REVIEW, DO YOU AGREE? >> ABSOLUTELY.
>> ABSOLUTELY. SOME OF THE COMMITMENTS HERE ARE
SOME OF THE COMMITMENTS HERE ARE FAMILIAR, WE'VE HEARD THEM IN
FAMILIAR, WE'VE HEARD THEM IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER IN BILATERAL
ONE FORM OR ANOTHER IN BILATERAL DIALOGUES FOR YEARS, EVEN
DIALOGUES FOR YEARS, EVEN DECADES BUT NOW MONTHLY MEETINGS
DECADES BUT NOW MONTHLY MEETINGS AT THE -- AT THE LEVEL OF LOWER
AT THE -- AT THE LEVEL OF LOWER OFFICIALS AND QUARTERLY AT THE
OFFICIALS AND QUARTERLY AT THE DEPUTY MINISTER LEVEL AND SO ON
DEPUTY MINISTER LEVEL AND SO ON UP TO CHAIN.
UP TO CHAIN. PAUL: RIGHT.
PAUL: RIGHT. >> ROBERT LIGHTHIZER, U.S. TRADE
>> ROBERT LIGHTHIZER, U.S. TRADE REPRESENTATIVE, HE REGARDS IT AS
REPRESENTATIVE, HE REGARDS IT AS JOB ONE HERE TO SEE THAT THE
JOB ONE HERE TO SEE THAT THE CHANGES TO THE CHINESE ECONOMY,
CHANGES TO THE CHINESE ECONOMY, THAT THE CHINESE I THINK FOR
THAT THE CHINESE I THINK FOR THEIR OWN INTEREST, FOR THEIR
THEIR OWN INTEREST, FOR THEIR OWN RATIONALE ARE COMMITTING TO,
OWN RATIONALE ARE COMMITTING TO, THAT THEY'RE ACTUALLY
THAT THEY'RE ACTUALLY IMPLEMENTED.
IMPLEMENTED. >> I GUESS THE QUESTION THAT I
>> I GUESS THE QUESTION THAT I ALSO HAVE WAS IT WORTH THE 2
ALSO HAVE WAS IT WORTH THE 2 YEARS OF UNCERTAINTY AND TARIFF
YEARS OF UNCERTAINTY AND TARIFF IMPOSITION, SOME SOME OF THE TAR
IMPOSITION, SOME SOME OF THE TAR ARE STILL GOING TO BE ON, WAS IT
ARE STILL GOING TO BE ON, WAS IT WORTH THE PRICE ECONOMICALLY?
WORTH THE PRICE ECONOMICALLY? >> I THINK THAT THAT'S A
>> I THINK THAT THAT'S A DIFFICULT QUESTION TO ANSWER.
DIFFICULT QUESTION TO ANSWER. AS YOU SAY TARIFFS ON
AS YOU SAY TARIFFS ON $350 BILLION ON IMPORT FROM
$350 BILLION ON IMPORT FROM CHINA ARE STILL THERE, THE COST
CHINA ARE STILL THERE, THE COST HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIAL TO BOTH
HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIAL TO BOTH ECONOMIES, CHINA'S ECONOMY
ECONOMIES, CHINA'S ECONOMY GROWTH HAS SLOWED PRETTY
GROWTH HAS SLOWED PRETTY DRAMATICALLY AND FOR THE UNITED
DRAMATICALLY AND FOR THE UNITED STATES, WE JUST HAVE NEW NUMBERS
STATES, WE JUST HAVE NEW NUMBERS IN THAT IN 2019 THE U.S.
IN THAT IN 2019 THE U.S. MANUFACTURING SECTOR CONTRACTED
MANUFACTURING SECTOR CONTRACTED BY MORE THAN 1%.
BY MORE THAN 1%. AGRICULTURE HAS BEEN IN A
AGRICULTURE HAS BEEN IN A RECESSION, THAT'S THE PRICE AND
RECESSION, THAT'S THE PRICE AND LOOKING FORWARD, WE HAVE TO SEE
LOOKING FORWARD, WE HAVE TO SEE HOW THESE MEASURES ARE
HOW THESE MEASURES ARE IMPLEMENTED TO SEE, YOU KNOW,
IMPLEMENTED TO SEE, YOU KNOW, THAT WE ARE GOING TO GET PAYOFF
THAT WE ARE GOING TO GET PAYOFF FROM THAT.
FROM THAT. PAUL: WE SHOULD GET SOME AT
PAUL: WE SHOULD GET SOME AT LEAST NEAR TERM RELIEF GROWTH AS
LEAST NEAR TERM RELIEF GROWTH AS THAT UNCERTAINTY ADDS I WOULD
THAT UNCERTAINTY ADDS I WOULD ASSUME THIS YEAR AND THE ECONOMY
ASSUME THIS YEAR AND THE ECONOMY BOUNCING BACK A LITTLE BIT, IS
BOUNCING BACK A LITTLE BIT, IS THAT WHAT YOU ANTICIPATE?
THAT WHAT YOU ANTICIPATE? >> WE DO, THERE'S A NUMBER OF
>> WE DO, THERE'S A NUMBER OF REASONS THAT WE EXPECT THE
REASONS THAT WE EXPECT THE ECONOMY TO BE BOUNCING BACK, ONE
ECONOMY TO BE BOUNCING BACK, ONE OF THE DRAGS ON THE ECONOMY HAS
OF THE DRAGS ON THE ECONOMY HAS BEEN BUSINESS INVESTMENT HAS
BEEN BUSINESS INVESTMENT HAS BEEN LOW AND THAT'S BEEN IN PART
BEEN LOW AND THAT'S BEEN IN PART BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TARIFFS, WE SEE THAT LIFTING UP
TARIFFS, WE SEE THAT LIFTING UP BECAUSE OF THE CHINA DEAL AND
BECAUSE OF THE CHINA DEAL AND ALSO BECAUSE OF USMCA.
ALSO BECAUSE OF USMCA. PAUL: YEAH, LET'S TALK ABOUT
PAUL: YEAH, LET'S TALK ABOUT USMCA BRIEFLY, NICE TO GET THAT
USMCA BRIEFLY, NICE TO GET THAT FINALLY DONE AND BEHIND US, SO I
FINALLY DONE AND BEHIND US, SO I GUESS YOU GUYS ARE PRETTY HAPPY
GUESS YOU GUYS ARE PRETTY HAPPY ABOUT THAT EVEN THOUGH THERE'S A
ABOUT THAT EVEN THOUGH THERE'S A MANAGED TRADE COMPONENT HERE AND
MANAGED TRADE COMPONENT HERE AND WAGED DICTATES FOR THE AUTO
WAGED DICTATES FOR THE AUTO INDUSTRY THAT GENERALLY BUSINESS
INDUSTRY THAT GENERALLY BUSINESS LIKE.
LIKE. NET ON NET, BIG IMPROVEMENT OR
NET ON NET, BIG IMPROVEMENT OR NOT?
NOT? >> SO FOR MOST BUSINESSES AND
>> SO FOR MOST BUSINESSES AND MOST SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY THE
MOST SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY THE REALLY GOOD NEWS IS THAT FREE
REALLY GOOD NEWS IS THAT FREE TRADE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS
TRADE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS GOING TO CONTINUE AS IT HAS FOR
GOING TO CONTINUE AS IT HAS FOR 2 YEARS.
2 YEARS. WE HAVE EXCELLENT MARKET ACCESS
WE HAVE EXCELLENT MARKET ACCESS AND WE HAVE SOME MODERNIZED
AND WE HAVE SOME MODERNIZED TRADE RULES LIKE DIGITAL TRADE,
TRADE RULES LIKE DIGITAL TRADE, OTHER MEASURES TO COMBAT BEHIND
OTHER MEASURES TO COMBAT BEHIND THE BORDER KINDS OF
THE BORDER KINDS OF PROTECTIONISM, YOU MENTIONED
PROTECTIONISM, YOU MENTIONED WITH REGARD TO THE COMPLICATED
WITH REGARD TO THE COMPLICATED RULES THAT ARE GOING TO RAISE
RULES THAT ARE GOING TO RAISE COSTS FOR THE AUTO INDUSTRY,
COSTS FOR THE AUTO INDUSTRY, NOW, RAISING COSTS FOR AN
NOW, RAISING COSTS FOR AN INDUSTRY ISN'T USUALLY A GOOD
INDUSTRY ISN'T USUALLY A GOOD WAY TO MAKE MORE GLOBALLY
WAY TO MAKE MORE GLOBALLY COMPETITIVE.
COMPETITIVE. PAUL: RIGHT.
PAUL: RIGHT. >> MOST COMPANIES ARE INDICATING
>> MOST COMPANIES ARE INDICATING THAT THEY THINK THEY CAN
THAT THEY THINK THEY CAN IMPLEMENT WITHOUT TOO MUCH COST
IMPLEMENT WITHOUT TOO MUCH COST BUT THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS
BUT THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AS WE GO THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION
AS WE GO THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION PHASE, THE QUESTION HOW
PHASE, THE QUESTION HOW REGULATIONS IMPLEMENTING WILL BE
REGULATIONS IMPLEMENTING WILL BE FRAMED AND WILL BE ON THAT AS
FRAMED AND WILL BE ON THAT AS WELL.
WELL. PAUL: BRIEFLY, JOHN, DO YOU SEE
PAUL: BRIEFLY, JOHN, DO YOU SEE THIS BASICALLY BEING TRADE FOR
THIS BASICALLY BEING TRADE FOR THE NEXT YEAR UNTIL WE GET
THE NEXT YEAR UNTIL WE GET THROUGH THE ELECTION?
THROUGH THE ELECTION? >> I THINK IT'LL BE CALMER,
>> I THINK IT'LL BE CALMER, CERTAINLY, AND THERE'S SOMETHING
CERTAINLY, AND THERE'S SOMETHING OF A SIGH OF RELIEF GOING UP AND
OF A SIGH OF RELIEF GOING UP AND ALSO THE THREAT TO IMPOSE AUTO
ALSO THE THREAT TO IMPOSE AUTO TARIFFS SEEM TO HAVE EXPIRED AS
TARIFFS SEEM TO HAVE EXPIRED AS THE ADMINISTRATION PASSED THE
THE ADMINISTRATION PASSED THE DEADLINE, SO WE ARE LOOKING FOR
DEADLINE, SO WE ARE LOOKING FOR A CHANCE TO CONSOLIDATE THE
A CHANCE TO CONSOLIDATE THE GAINS WHERE THEY EXIST AND MOVE
GAINS WHERE THEY EXIST AND MOVE FORWARD IN THE YEAR AHEAD.
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Were the Trump tariffs a price worth paying for the China trade deal?

17 Folder Collection
林宜悉 published on February 18, 2020
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