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  • On July 25th, 1978 in Oldham, England, a baby girl named Louise was born.

  • Unlike any baby before her, Louise was conceived in a Petri dish by a remarkable new procedure known as in vitro fertilization or IVF.

  • Since then millions of so-called "test-tube babies" have been born.

  • Today 1 in 60 American births is thanks to IVF and other fertility treatments, which have spawned a booming new industry in many different countries.

  • But, are fertility businesses making promises they can't keep?

  • Sacha Nauta can help answer that.

  • She's the public policy editor at The Economist.

  • So there's a lot going on in the fertility industry.

  • Firstly you're seeing a lot of growth in people seeking out IVF treatment.

  • IVF provides a valuable option for people who, for whatever reason, are unable to conceive.

  • But, there's another emerging market.

  • There's quite a lot of exciting stuff going on around so-called fertility "preservation."

  • That's freezing of egg or sperm cells for IVF in the future, often years later.

  • Egg freezing is a relatively new procedure and was officially considered experimental in America until 2012.

  • It's actually aimed at sort of millennials--people in their 20s--who aren't thinking about having babies at all, but who might want to preserve the idea of having kids.

  • It opens up the idea that as a person at sort of peak fertility, in say your mid-20s, you can take your cells, put them on ice, and in theory take them out whenever suits you when you're ready to have a baby.

  • This is what egg-freezing businesses appear to promise: a chance to put parenthood on ice, which appeals to young people who are increasingly interested in having children later, for a variety of reasons.

  • What clinics sell you tends to be time, or women's empowerment, or taking control of your destiny.

  • All of these things that you know chime with what younger women right now would like to have.

  • And women are increasingly buying in.

  • The number of egg-freezing procedures has grown rapidly over the past decade.

  • The process isn't cheap.

  • Egg freezing can cost $15,000-$20,000 per cycle, which is a single batch of eggs.

  • It often requires multiple cycles to increase chances of success.

  • Egg freezing and similar services are part of the burgeoning women's-health industry dubbed "femtech," and are attracting plenty of interest from investors.

  • So we've seen a lot of particularly private-equity money go into the sector as well as venture capital into the more early stage stuff.

  • Investment in fertility firms grew from less than $200 million in 2009 to $624 million in 2018.

  • Investors are attracted to the growth prospects, high-profit margins, and recession-proof demand.

  • Investors, businesses, and prospective parents all stand to benefit.

  • But the reliability of these services might be oversold.

  • IVF has a success rate of about 25-30% per cycle.

  • But that doesn't tell you much.

  • It depends on who you are. It very much depends on how old you are.

  • On freezing I'm a bit more cautious.

  • They're, it's really early days.

  • Birth rates from frozen eggs should be taken with a grain of salt.

  • Most women who have had their eggs frozen have not yet retrieved them.

  • So the sample sizes are small.

  • It's just too soon to draw reliable conclusions.

  • Still, clinics might misrepresent the data to encourage freezing.

  • An egg-freezing clinic might tell you "our success rate is "X" and you might think "oh that sounds good."

  • And what they may not tell you is that is based on donor eggs of 25-year-olds.

  • Whereas actually you're a 38-year-old, which is the average age of most people who go to egg clinics and therefore your chances are much lower.

  • So you are not that number that they're showing you.

  • I think the most important caveat is that there is no such thing as a guarantee to have a baby.

  • And one of my concerns in the industry right now is that the caution isn't being sold enough.

  • It may well help you one day, but there's also a very good chance that it won't.

  • There is also a lack of sufficient regulation of fertility services, especially in America.

  • Freezing clinics in particularyou know a young, new industry.

  • I think there's a lot of problems there.

  • There have been a few quite well-published scandals around loss of these cells, loss of embryos.

  • I think about who they could have been and what they would have been like and yeah, those were our future children.

  • And what we're seeing right now is when these kind of dramatic things do happen, it's clear that it's a totally under-regulated sector where there are no clear standards for how you look after these cells.

  • So what's needed from the fertility sector?

  • It's honestyit is just more honesty about the limits of the science, honesty about the costs, and yes more investment in R&D, which is I think a great thing.

  • There is still so much more to explore and so much room for improvement around these treatments and clearly a growing market.

On July 25th, 1978 in Oldham, England, a baby girl named Louise was born.

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