Name: What Will Cause The Next Recession - Paul Krugman On UBI And More
Uploaded: 2019-04-28T19:24:13.000Z
Duration: 13 min 9 s
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Adverbs of manner

And the reason is basically, it's a lot of money.

And given that there are constraints, political constraints on how

much money we're going to be able to get together for social

programs. Trouble with UBI is that either it's going to cost an

amount that's beyond what I expect is to be politically possible

and in the next several decades. Or it's going to be way inadequate.

And so more targeted programs, programs that that focus on people with

real needs and that includes everything from of course universal

health care, which we can should do right away one way or another, to

various kinds of income supports for families with children and so

If you ask what we can do with a sum substantially less than

That would only make sense if we were right on the verge of the point

where the robots take all of our jobs and that doesn't look, there's

A starting point is finish the job that the, that the Affordable Care Act began.

Now, I would I'm, I'm very enthusiastic about this new proposal to ACA 2.0 to reinforce it.

I mean, I'm a I'm a Medicare for America guy which is Medicare is

available to everyone but you can also keep private insurance but

We need aid to families, we need child care.

Universal child care is it's something that it's crazy not to have

given what it means for the country's future.

There's a there's a list of things you start to add up things that

are huge benefits to America that would cost a few percent to GDP.

And that's a significant but not crushing sum and we should just do

You could have a very extensive progressive agenda for no more than

the amount of money that a Republican Congress just blew out a

Right now two trillion dollars over the next 10 years would buy you a

Anything up to that point, I would say let's not even worry about

If we're going to have a recession, it's gonna be a smorgasbord

recession. It's going to be no one thing but just a bunch of different things.

I mean short run economic forecasting is a is a black art.

People who are tracking are feeling moderately depressed right now.

They're seeing slow growth right now and the markets, the bond market

is acting as if there's a pretty good chance of a recession sometime

There are all kinds of things that could be going wrong.

Europe may very well actually already be in recession. They probably

are suffering the deflation of the tech bubble, corporate debt has

gotten it. I've been saying there's no one thing this is if we're

going to have a recession it's going to be a smorgasbord recession.

It said now that our economy is the strongest it's ever been in the

He's been boasting about the greatest economy ever and it's actually

turns out that we've had the highest growth rate since 2015.

What we've been seeing is just kind of in the normal range of

People live on their paychecks and paychecks have not at

best kept slightly ahead of inflation and not even that.

People... So, you say whatever, whatever people may say about the

growth number, the fact that the matter is people are looking and

saying I don't feel like it's any easier to pay my bills this year

The absence of faster wage growth despite low unemployment is

But you know the economy is always changing.

The way we measure the unemployment rate is always the same but what it means

in terms of how tight our labor markets, how much bargaining power workers have.

That can change a lot depending on what the economy is like and it

looks as if we have an economy right now where between

and maybe factors we just don't understand, what looks like a historically low

unemployment rate isn't actually translating into the kind of

bargaining power that workers used to have.

I actually think that the answer to what will replace unions is

In the end, something like organized you know if union means organized

labor that is able to bargain collectively, there's a reason that we

hit upon that solution and it's a solution that we managed to lose a lot of.

Largely because of a political environment that's hostile.

I mean we...unions are a very small factor in the U.S. economy right now.

But you know there's two thirds of the workforce in Scandinavia.

So there's nothing about the 21st century that says that you can't have extensive unionization.

America has made policy choices that have led to low unionization.

Denmark is absolutely as exposed to the winds of global competition as America is.

And remember also most of our economy by the way is services which

So no this is, this is an excuse. We made we made the decision

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What Will Cause The Next Recession - Paul Krugman On UBI And More

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