Name: 【TED】Johan Rockström: 5 transformational policies for a prosperous and sustainable world (5 transformational policies for a prosperous and sustainable world | Johan Rockström)
Uploaded: 2018-11-07T16:44:04.000Z
Duration: 12 min 23 s
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In 2015, we saw two fantastic, hopeful breakthroughs for humanity.

First, the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals,

the collective, universal plan for humanity

[promote] good economic development and good health,

Secondly, after 21 years of negotiations,

we adopted the legally binding Paris Agreement,

all nations in the world keeping global warming under two degrees Celsius,

Today, three years down the line, we're still in the hand-waving business.

Now, I think it's time to step back one step

and recognize that I wonder if the world leaders really knew what they signed

These are universal, aspirational, transformational goals

for inclusive, prosperous humanity on a stable earth system.

We have inherent contradictions between these goals,

where there's the risk of pursuing one favored goal at the expense of others.

Take, for example, Goal 8, on decent work and economic growth.

If we continue doing that by exploiting natural resources

Three years down the line, we simply must admit

we're seeing limited action to really, really address this

as an inclusive, collective, universal package.

Now, this requires us to step back one step.

I think we have to ask ourselves some hard questions:

Do we have any chance of accomplishing the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030?

that are not compatible with our current development paradigm?

But are there, perhaps, synergies where we can really accelerate change?

really taking seriously the social and economic aspirational goals

within the life-support systems on earth?

Now, citizens across the world have started to recognize

that we're facing global rising environmental risks;

in fact, that a stable planet is a prerequisite

We need to define a safe operating space on a stable earth system,

and the planetary boundary framework was introduced

It has now been widely embraced across the world

as a framework for sustainable development

This slide really shows the framework with the nine environmental processes

that regulate the stability of the earth system,

where we'll have a high chance of having good human well-being

If we move into the yellow zone, we enter a dangerous uncertainty zone;

and into the red, we have a high likelihood of crossing tipping points

that could take us irreversibly away from the ability of the earth system

to provide social and economic well-being for humanity.

Now, we can today, scientifically, quantify these boundaries,

providing us a stable earth system for humanity.

and recognize the Sustainable Development Goals --

if we really want to seriously accomplish them --

must now occur within this safe operating space.

But dear friends, not even this is enough.

We need to recognize that the Sustainable Development Goals

It is the bull's-eye that we need to go through

and zoom ourselves towards transformations

where we can have a good future for all co-citizens on earth,

within a stable earth system in 2050 and beyond.

and in order to really explore this and not have only opinions about it,

we gathered the scientific community, the best thinkers and modelers

and started to develop a completely new complex systems dynamic model,

building on models that have been around for the last 50 years.

This has a climate module, a biosphere module, a global economic model;

it has algorithms, it has the whole room of fantastic accomplishments.

I mean, this is just a beautiful piece of work?

And I'd just love to spend the whole evening walking this through with you,

In fact, the only thing I can do with you is just to assure you

Nobody has ever tried to really analytically combine

the Sustainable Development Goals with planetary boundaries.

And we were able to find patterns and really convergent trends

that gives us a lot of confidence in our ability to now project

resources use from water, food and energy,

yet along these consistent and systemic pathways.

So, it's the first time we have a robust opportunity

to really explore the futures of ability of attaining the SDGs within PBs.

【TED】Johan Rockström: 5 transformational policies for a prosperous and sustainable world (5 transformational policies for a prosperous and sustainable world | Johan Rockström)

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【TED】Johan Rockström: 5 transformational policies for a prosperous and sustainable world (5 transformational policies for a prosperous and sustainable world | Johan Rockström)

scenario

recognize

tough

opportunity