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  • In 2015, we saw two fantastic, hopeful breakthroughs for humanity.

  • First, the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals,

  • the collective, universal plan for humanity

  • to eradicate hunger,

  • [promote] good economic development and good health,

  • within global environmental targets.

  • Secondly, after 21 years of negotiations,

  • we adopted the legally binding Paris Agreement,

  • all nations in the world keeping global warming under two degrees Celsius,

  • aiming at 1.5 degrees Celsius.

  • Today, three years down the line, we're still in the hand-waving business.

  • Now, I think it's time to step back one step

  • and recognize that I wonder if the world leaders really knew what they signed

  • at the General Assembly three years ago.

  • These are universal, aspirational, transformational goals

  • for inclusive, prosperous humanity on a stable earth system.

  • But there are underlying problems.

  • We have inherent contradictions between these goals,

  • where there's the risk of pursuing one favored goal at the expense of others.

  • Take, for example, Goal 8, on decent work and economic growth.

  • If we continue doing that by exploiting natural resources

  • and burning fossil fuels,

  • it will be impossible to reach Goal 13.

  • Three years down the line, we simply must admit

  • we're seeing limited action to really, really address this

  • as an inclusive, collective, universal package.

  • Now, this requires us to step back one step.

  • I think we have to ask ourselves some hard questions:

  • Do we have any chance of accomplishing the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030?

  • Are there actually inherent trade-offs

  • that are not compatible with our current development paradigm?

  • But are there, perhaps, synergies where we can really accelerate change?

  • And is it really a people-planet agenda,

  • really taking seriously the social and economic aspirational goals

  • within the life-support systems on earth?

  • Now, citizens across the world have started to recognize

  • that we're facing global rising environmental risks;

  • in fact, that a stable planet is a prerequisite

  • to have good human well-being on earth.

  • We need to define a safe operating space on a stable earth system,

  • and the planetary boundary framework was introduced

  • by the scientific community in 2009

  • to do exactly that.

  • It has now been widely embraced across the world

  • in policy, business and communities

  • as a framework for sustainable development

  • in the Anthropocene.

  • This slide really shows the framework with the nine environmental processes

  • that regulate the stability of the earth system,

  • providing a safe operating space,

  • where we'll have a high chance of having good human well-being

  • and prosperity and equity.

  • If we move into the yellow zone, we enter a dangerous uncertainty zone;

  • and into the red, we have a high likelihood of crossing tipping points

  • that could take us irreversibly away from the ability of the earth system

  • to provide social and economic well-being for humanity.

  • Now, we can today, scientifically, quantify these boundaries,

  • providing us a stable earth system for humanity.

  • But we have to go beyond this

  • and recognize the Sustainable Development Goals --

  • if we really want to seriously accomplish them --

  • must now occur within this safe operating space.

  • We need to achieve SDGs within PBs.

  • But dear friends, not even this is enough.

  • We need to recognize that the Sustainable Development Goals

  • is 12 years away.

  • It's only a milestone.

  • It is the bull's-eye that we need to go through

  • and zoom ourselves towards transformations

  • where we can have a good future for all co-citizens on earth,

  • nine billion plus,

  • within a stable earth system in 2050 and beyond.

  • This is a quest,

  • and in order to really explore this and not have only opinions about it,

  • we gathered the scientific community, the best thinkers and modelers

  • and started to develop a completely new complex systems dynamic model,

  • the Earth-3 model,

  • building on models that have been around for the last 50 years.

  • And here it is.

  • This is a fantastic piece of work.

  • This has a climate module, a biosphere module, a global economic model;

  • it has algorithms, it has the whole room of fantastic accomplishments.

  • This is what turns us scientists on.

  • (Laughter)

  • I mean, this is just a beautiful piece of work?

  • And I'd just love to spend the whole evening walking this through with you,

  • but I'll make you disappointed.

  • I cannot do that.

  • In fact, the only thing I can do with you is just to assure you

  • that this is the first time it's done.

  • Nobody has ever tried to really analytically combine

  • the Sustainable Development Goals with planetary boundaries.

  • And we were able to find patterns and really convergent trends

  • that gives us a lot of confidence in our ability to now project

  • economic development,

  • resources use from water, food and energy,

  • population growth, income per person,

  • yet along these consistent and systemic pathways.

  • So, it's the first time we have a robust opportunity

  • to really explore the futures of ability of attaining the SDGs within PBs.

  • Now, how do we do this?

  • Well, look at this.

  • Here, you have the data coming from the real world,

  • calibrated from 1970-2015:

  • 100,000 data points around the world,

  • building on seven regions' ability,

  • of really picking on all these Sustainable Development Goals.

  • Now, one example of how we calibrated this,

  • here you have [data] for Sustainable Development Goals

  • on eradicating poverty, health, education and food.

  • And here you have in the bubbles the seven regions of the world,

  • how they move up until 2015 in our empirical observations

  • in relation to GDP per capita,

  • giving these universal convergent trends,

  • which enabled us to create regressions

  • that could make us able to do simulations into the future,

  • all the way until 2050,

  • showing the ability along the lines here to attain the SDGs.

  • Now, this gave us the opportunity of doing several scenarios,

  • testing different possible futures:

  • business as usual, global transformations,

  • investment schemes in business, different governance options,

  • policies, finance --

  • really, to explore what the future can look like

  • in our ability to attain the SDGs within PBs.

  • And the results, I can tell you, really surprised us.

  • And this will be the first time it's shown.

  • It should actually not even be referenced outside of this room.

  • Now, it actually is presented along two axes.

  • The y-axis here shows our ability to stay within planetary boundaries.

  • The higher up, the closer you are to the safe operating space.

  • On the x-axis are the Sustainable Development Goals;

  • the further to the right, the more of the SDGs we fulfill.

  • We all want to be in the upper right-hand corner,

  • the safe and just world for the future.

  • Now, the point you see there is 1980.

  • We were in a situation where we actually were in a safe operating space

  • but not meeting so many of the SDGs.

  • Here's the trend up until 2015.

  • So this is the conventional world,

  • which is actually delivering on an increasing number of SDGs,

  • lifting millions of people out of poverty,

  • but doing it at the expense of the safe operating space on earth.

  • Now, this is the scenario business as usual, into the future.

  • If we just move on as today,

  • we will be able to deliver on some of the SDGs,

  • but we'll do it at the expense of the stability of the earth system.

  • Now, what if we go faster on economic growth

  • and really ally on one percent increase per year of income

  • and an even tripling of the world economy by 2050?

  • That would give us the following trajectory.

  • We would, yes, go a little bit further on SDG accomplishments,

  • but still at the expense of the risk of destabilizing the planet.

  • But what if we really go harder?

  • What if we increase our ability to deliver on our promises by 30 percent

  • across all sectors in society,

  • from climate to our trade agreements?

  • A harder scenario would take us a little bit better,

  • but still, we're failing on the SDGs,

  • and we are not accomplishing a safe operating space for humanity.

  • So this really led us to a quite disappointing conclusion,

  • that we will actually, even if we go conventional futures, fail on the SDGs

  • and transgress planetary boundaries.

  • We need some radical thinking.

  • We need to go into a transformative, disruptive future,

  • where we start thinking outside of the box.

  • The modeling and engagement and dialogues enable us to identify

  • five transformations that could actually potentially take us there.

  • The first one is to cut emissions by half every decade

  • along the scientific pathway to Paris,

  • doubling investments in renewable energy,

  • creating a global energy democracy,

  • allowing us to meet several of the SDGs.

  • The second is a rapid shift towards sustainable food systems,

  • investing one percent per year in sustainable intensification

  • and really moving towards implementing and investing in solutions

  • that we already have available today.

  • The third is really to shift our development paradigm

  • and learn from many of the developing countries

  • that have moved very fast.

  • What if we could have an economic growth such as in China,

  • while doing it within the environmental parameters

  • of an ecological civilization?

  • Fourth, a redistribution of wealth.

  • What if we could [agree] that the richest 10 percent

  • could not allow themselves to amass more than 40 percent, maximum,

  • of national incomes --

  • a drastic redistribution of wealth,

  • reforming the ability of equity across regions?

  • And finally, fifth, a radical increase in more education, health,

  • access to work, contraception,

  • investing largely in women across the world,

  • allowing us to deliver on SDGs on gender, inequality,

  • economics and urban development.

  • Now, if we would push ourselves across all these five --

  • we tested this, and it would give us an amazing journey

  • towards the safe and just operating space on earth.

  • It shows us that even with a conservative, empirically based,

  • complex system dynamics model,

  • we are at a state where we can actually think of transformations

  • over the next 12 years and beyond

  • that can take us up into the safe operating space

  • and deliver on aspirational social and economic goals.

  • This is actually quite uplifting,

  • despite the fact that we're not moving along this trajectory.

  • So, in summary:

  • we now, three years into the operational delivery on the SDGs,

  • must draw a line

  • and conclude that we're not delivering on our promises,

  • and not only that, we're running the risks

  • of future generations having an even tougher ability,

  • because of the risk of pushing the earth system beyond tipping points.

  • In fact, we are facing even a risk of a hothouse earth,

  • where we will undermine and create geopolitical instabilities

  • that could actually make life even more tough

  • for billions of people on earth.

  • This, in all honesty, really, really scares me.

  • But that's also why I'm standing here tonight,

  • because the window of success is still open.

  • The earth system is still resilient.

  • She is still providing us with ecosystem services and functions

  • that can allow us a transition back into a safe operating space.

  • But we need radically different thinking.

  • We need to see this as an incredible wake-up call

  • but also an opportunity for transformative change,

  • where we shift gears

  • and really start thinking of the SDGs as a transformative agenda

  • within a safe operating space on earth.

  • In other words, we can build a safe and just world.

  • We just have to really, really get on with it.

  • And let's do it. Thank you.

  • (Applause)

In 2015, we saw two fantastic, hopeful breakthroughs for humanity.

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【TED】Johan Rockström: 5 transformational policies for a prosperous and sustainable world (5 transformational policies for a prosperous and sustainable world | Johan Rockström)

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    林宜悉 posted on 2018/11/07
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