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  • Buying plane tickets can be exhausting.

  • Many of us spend hours on the internet researching flight deals,

  • trying to figure out an airfare pricing system that seems random.

  • Fees appear to fluctuate without reason, and longer flights aren't always more expensive than shorter ones.

  • But behind this is actually the science of dynamic pricing,

  • which has less to do with cost and more to do with artificial intelligence.

  • It's been more than a hundred years since the first scheduled flight.

  • With the Comet scheduled by British Overseas Airways Corporation

  • to start the world's first jet passenger air service

  • In the beginning, commercial aviation was a tightly regulated marketplace,

  • where airfares were based on distance traveled rather than passenger demand.

  • Most international routes were operated by a single national carrier,

  • and the lack of choice resulted in uncompetitive fares for consumers.

  • Deregulation, however, changed all that.

  • In 1978, the U.S. government began the process of removing government controls

  • over routes and market entry for new airlines.

  • In 1983, fares followed.

  • And by the early 1990s, the liberalization of the aviation industry had spread around the world,

  • making pricing more competitive.

  • Critics also say there was too much competition in the first years after deregulation.

  • Airlines merged and became more dominant,

  • changing the industry from a regulated cartel into an unregulated cartel.

  • In the U.S., just 4 airlines control 68% of the domestic airline capacity.

  • While ticket prices have been falling between major hub airports,

  • the lack of competition and a reduction in flights has resulted in higher average airfare for smaller, less competitive cities.

  • But this hasn't halted the demand in air travel.

  • The number of airline passengers across the globe has continued to grow,

  • particularly in the last 10 years, with the amount of people choosing to fly skyrocketing by nearly 1.8 billion.

  • So what does this increasing volume of passengers mean for pricing tickets?

  • Despite steep surcharges and baggage fees tacked on during the '07-'08 oil shock,

  • ticket prices aren't actually focused on the seats' combined cost such as taxes and fuel.

  • Instead, airlines price tickets using a strategy called airline revenue management.

  • Its end goal? Make as much money as possible.

  • This is working in real time.

  • So when a customer goes to book a seat, the airline determines the price they see

  • by analyzing a wide range of factors including the status of their entire network.

  • Of course, these decisions aren't being made by humans.

  • Algorithms adjust fares by using information like past bookings, remaining capacity,

  • average demand for certain routes, and the probability of selling more seats later.

  • One example of this process being used is for pricing connecting routes.

  • Let's say you want to fly London to Miami.

  • The flight you want to book also serves as the first leg of a connected flight to Bogota.

  • While you're traveling less distance to Miami,

  • you may end up paying more than passengers flying through to Bogota.

  • That's because airlines are trying to discourage you from buying seats

  • that they want to keep available for the full journey.

  • This entire thought process is done by an algorithm,

  • which predicts those seats will sell for a higher price in the future.

  • Airlines also profile their customers to help them adjust prices.

  • This often means placing passengers into one of two groups: leisure or business.

  • And the way each group is priced is very different.

  • An airline offering a flight from London to Bali can assume that the people on that route are largely holidaymakers,

  • so it places them in the leisure bracket.

  • These passengers usually book months in advance,

  • so airlines tend to start the price for these seats relatively high.

  • It then adjusts the price according to market response, making sure it's high enough to maximize profit,

  • but low enough so that it doesn't result in unused capacity.

  • While on a typical business route, such as London to Hong Kong,

  • airlines usually start with low prices to fill a minimum capacity.

  • Then it increases prices steeply for business travelers who book last minute.

  • That's because airlines know business travelers tend to book later

  • and are far less price sensitive than their leisure counterparts.

  • In fact, business travelers are willing to pay 60% more on average to secure a seat.

  • Some analysts believe airlines use consumers' internet browser cookies

  • to determine what flights they've been looking at.

  • This way, they can increase those prices to encourage them to buy.

  • But solid proof of this practice is hard to come by,

  • and it's something airlines and price comparison sites strongly deny.

  • Targeted dynamic prices however can increase customer satisfaction and encourage consumer bookings.

  • For example, a member of an airline loyalty program could receive

  • 'just for you' price displays based on their purchasing history.

  • Technology has also allowed some airlines to create a 'basic economy fare'

  • with limited amenities to compete with minimal service, low cost carriers.

  • That lower fare is key if full service carriers want to appear on the first page of search engines like Google Flights.

  • But it's not just airlines that are using AI technology to their advantage.

  • Consumers now have access to sites which monitor fares, using their own algorithms and past data,

  • to predict the lowest price a seat will reach to then alert their customers.

  • The threat airfare search sites pose to airlines' dynamic pricing system

  • even saw United Airlines suing the website Skiplagged, which helps passengers find loopholes for cheaper tickets.

  • With AI having such an important role in the field of air travel pricing,

  • it's likely that complex algorithms will continue to fight the airfare war.

  • That may not be a bad thing, as airlines manage a growing number of passengers

  • and consumers push for better choices and easier ways to book their trips.

Buying plane tickets can be exhausting.

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