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  • MARIA: WELCOME BACK.

  • CRUDE OIL KEEPS ON MOVING WITH

  • OIL UP SIX OF THE LAST EIGHT

  • JOINING US RIGHT NOW IS TOM

  • KLOZA.

  • GOOD TO SEE YOU THIS MORNING.

  • >> YEAH, I THINK SO.

  • I MEAN, THE HOT QUARTER IS THIS

  • QUARTER AND THE NEXT 40 OR 50

  • DAYS ARE THE WILD 40 OR 50 DAYS.

  • IT COULD BE TUGGED UP BY HIGHER

  • GAS LINE PRICES OR IT COULD GO

  • UP WITH MORE RHETORIC INVOLVING

  • IRAN.

  • I MEAN, IF WE REALLY DO TRY TO

  • SQUEEZE IRAN AND SQUEEZE A

  • MILLION BARRELS A DAY OUT OF THE

  • MARKET OR EVEN MORE, BASED ON

  • SOME OF THE STATEMENTS, OIL

  • PRICES ARE GOING TO GO HIGHER.

  • I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE

  • BRENT PRICES AROUND $85, AND THE

  • U.S. CRUDE PROBABLY GET CLOSE TO

  • THAT, ABOUT $80.

  • BUT IT REALLY ALMOST NEEDS TO

  • HAPPEN IN THIS QUARTER.

  • WE'LL GET A BREAK AFTER THAT AND

  • THEN 2019 WE START IT ALL AGAIN.

  • MARIA: SOMEBODY MADE THE POINT

  • THIS WEEKEND THAT SOMEONE

  • THIS WEEKEND THAT OOMEONE

  • THIS WEEKEND THAT ONEEONE

  • THIS WEEKEND THAT ONE ONE

  • THIS WEEKEND THAT ONE OFE

  • THIS WEEKEND THAT ONE OF THE

  • PEOPLE ARE WORRIED THE SANCTIONS

  • ARE CUTTING BACK PRODUCTION IN

  • LOTS OF OIL-GENERATING

  • COUNTRIES.

  • >> YEAH, WELL, THE SANCTIONS IN

  • IF YOU GO BACK TO 2011 TO 2014,

  • YOU HAD SANCTIONS ON IRAN AT THE

  • END OF THAT PERIOD.

  • THAT REMOVED MORE THAN A MILLION

  • BARRELS A DAY OF CRUDE FROM THE

  • BETWEEN $450 BILLION AND

  • $480 BILLION FOR OUR GAT

  • $480 BILLION FOR OUR GASOLINE

  • THEN.

  • STILL ABOUT $90 BILLION MORE

  • THAN WE PAID IN 2016.

  • SO IT IS EXPENSE

  • SO IT IS EXPENSIVE AND PEOPLE

  • ALMOST HAVE AN INTERNAL

  • THERMOSTAT AS TO HOW MUCH THEY

  • SPENT.

  • >> ONE OF THE QUESTIONS I HAVE,

  • WE SAW BEFORE WHEN THIS HAPPENED

  • THERE WAS A CHANGE IN BEHAVIOR

  • IN THE KINDS OF VEHICLES THAT

  • PEOPLE WERE BUYING.

  • WE'VE SEEN SOME OF OUR

  • MANUFACTURERS ELIMINATE ALL CARS

  • EXCEPT FOR SUVS.

  • WHAT KIND OF IMPACT DO YOU THINK

  • THIS WILL HAVE ON THE AUTO

  • GOTTEN A BREAK RECENTLY.

  • SOME OF THE STANDARDS THAT WERE

  • RELAXED A LITTLE BIT AND PEOPLE

  • ARE BUYING MORE SUVS THAN

  • INSTRUCTION.

  • COMMERCIAL WHERE THEY SHOW SOME

  • GUY IN A BIG TRUCK DELIVERING A

  • CALF OUT IN THE HINTERLANDS.

  • YOU DON'T NECESSARILY NEED BIG

  • TRUCKS AND BIG SUVS.

  • I LIKE TO URGE PEOPLE NOT TO

  • NECESSARILY LIVE LARGE WITH AN

  • AUTOMOBILE BECAUSE I THINK IT'S

  • THE OTHER ANSWER, MORE SUPPLY IS

  • AN ANSWER BUT LESS DEMAND IS AN

  • ANSWER AS WELL.

  • AMERICAN AS SOON AS OIL GETS TO

  • LOWER NUMBERS, THEY START BUYING

  • BIG AGAIN AND THAT'S WHAT THE

  • GET PEOPLE TO CHANGE THEIR

  • BEHAVIOR UNLESS OIL IS -- YOU

  • GOING TO GET TO $100, UNLESS WE

  • ACTUALLY HAVE LIKE MISSILES

  • FLYING IN THE PERSIAN GULF BUT

  • $90 OIL COULD CHANGE IT.

  • IT COULD ALSO CHANGE IF THINGS

  • GET A LITTLE TOUGHER.

  • THIS IS ABOUT AS GOOD AS IT GETS

  • AS GLOBAL ECONOMIES GO.

  • SO WE HAVE TO MEASURE EVERYTHING

  • FROM HERE AS MAYBE THE HIGH

  • STANDARD.

  • >> TOM, REAL QUICK, SO MUCH OF

  • THIS CONVERSATION OF LATE HAS

  • BEEN ANY KIND OF A SHIFT IN

  • DEMAND THAT COULD BE SOMETHING

  • THAT MODERATES THE SKYROCKETING

  • PRICE OF OIL.

  • >> THE SHIFT IS PROBABLY IN THE

  • UNITED STATES.

  • WE'RE GETTING A LITTLE BIT

  • FATIGUED WITH HIGHER PRICES

  • PARTICULARLY, ALL OF THE

  • COUNTRIES THAT ARE PRODUCING A

  • A LITTLE REVVED UP.

  • THAT IS SOMETHING TO WORRY

  • ABOUT.

  • IF YOU GET A SLOWDOWN IN GDP OR

  • ANY KIND OF SORT OF A MALAISE OR

  • A SLOG, THAT'S GOING TO KNOCK

  • DEMAND DOWN TREMENDOUSLY.

  • THIS MONTH, HOWEVER, I THINK

  • WORLD USES 100 MILLION BARRELS A

  • DAY OF CRUDE OIL.

  • MARIA: BIG NUMBER.

MARIA: WELCOME BACK.

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