Between them, the Castro brothers

have ruled Cuba for 60 years.

And it used to be said that the Caribbean island never changes,

but old age has made change biologically inevitable.

And Raul steps down as president on April 19, aged 86.

What will that mean for the economy

and the communist country's small band of entrepreneurs

and self-employed?

[NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] ( The transition from Raul ) is a natural change

that follows the laws of existence. It's a generational change.

Still, generational change also implies a change of perspective

The economy has been hit by Hurricane Irma and the halving

of aid from Venezuela.

It's estimated to be a third smaller than it was in 1985.

But US President Donald Trump has also

had an effect, after partially reversing

a detente launched by his predecessor, Barack Obama.

The number of international visitors had been rising,

but has been badly hit.

[NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] It's logical because you open a webpage of say TripAdvisor in Miami or somewhere else

[NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] and if you search for Cuba you get a warning message from the US states

Obviously that has an impact, and it is that Americans don't come.

For us 'Trump effect' has been brutal.

It's as if the (economic supply) chain has broken.

Because we have less work, they (other business) have less work too.

The impact has been very strong.

Other US measures such as an Internet Task Force

to expand the flow of information on the island

are at risk of backfiring.

[NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] We could be cast as being part of that US initiative to undermine Cuba.

[NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] Instead of helping us, the initiative hurts.

Vice President Miguel Diaz-Canel is Castro's likely replacement.

The 57-year-old has lashed out at dissidents,

independent media, and foreign embassies.

Under Raul, 580,000 self-employed businesses

were created, but now, they fear a looming government

economic reform package.

And there is added uncertainty of new private sector regulations.

[NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] I imagine that studies they are making will be better to Cuban economy,

and I think there should be more allowance given to Cuban entrepreneurs to help their country

But we have to wait and see. From crisis come big changes.

It's a vulnerable moment for the Communist Party and for Cuba.

Liberalising the economy would inevitably

loosen the party's grip on power.

The litmus test for the new leadership

will be crackdown or reform.

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