Name: The hidden winners of the Iran oil crisis | To The Point
Uploaded: 2026-03-12T17:25:23.000Z
Duration: 26 min 2 s
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Oil terminals in flames in the Middle east are sending petrol prices soaring across the board.

It didn't take long for the reverberations of the war in Iran to be felt around the world.

As the conflict drags on with no end in sight, warnings of a global economic crisis grow louder and louder.

While the US And Israel continue to strike targets in Iran, Tehran is responding with attacks on Israel, the Gulf states, and

a chokehold on the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

The war has exposed the enormous, enormous vulnerability of the global energy supply chain.

Amid the petrol panic, we ask who benefits from the oil shock?

Markus Bickel is a Middle east analyst and editor in chief of the Security Table newsletter at the German publishing house Table Media.

She's an economics correspondent at the German newspaper Tuts and author of several books.

Her latest publication looks at how economic factors drive war and peace.

And Claudia Kempfert is a professor of energy economics and energy policy and heads the Department for Energy, Transport and Environment at the German Institute for Economic Research.

Claudia, I want to start with you because the war in Iran has triggered a global energy crisis.

How is this going to affect the world economy?

Yeah, it's going to affect the world economy because it crucially depends on how long the crisis will stand.

I mean, if it's only weeks, the economy could stand with this and the impacts would be negative as it would stand longer.

And the longer it takes, the more severe are the economic consequences out of it.

Ulrike, you just published a book looking at how economic factors influence war and peace.

Well, the calculus of Iran is really very clear.

They know that they only have to close the Strait of Hormuz in order to choke the world economy.

There is no chip passing anymore that is not Chinese or belonging to the Iranian system.

And so now we have a lack or a shortage of oil on the world markets of 2 of 20 billion, near 20 million barrels a day.

It's the worst crisis, oil crisis we ever had.

And if this war continues, the prices will rise enormously.

So there is really the threat of inflation.

And that's something voters really react to very sensitively or very quickly.

And that is something that also Trump has to fear.

So I'd say that even now already it is clear that the war will be strategically won by Iran, not by Trump.

And he will end this war quite soon, I think, in order to somehow mitigate the effects it has for the US Consumers and then, of course, for the US Voters.

that is something Marcus can answer, whether it is not already too late to stop this war and that Iran in fact has the possibilities to continue even if Trump decides that he wants to end this war.

Yeah, Marcos, let's extend that question to you because it very much looks like Donald Trump wants to send the signal that this is not going to be a protracted war.

I'm quoting him directly here, I think the war is very complete.

And do the facts on the ground suggest that he is in any way correct?

The facts on the ground speak against this thesis.

I think Iran, as Ulrike said, is expanding this war.

The attacks against energy infrastructure in all the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council are expanding.

And it's wishful thinking by Trump to be able to end this war fast.

And Iran can push the price for this war up higher and is doing so by the day.

Today in Basra in Iraq, ship terminals were attacked.

Ships were attacked, which is an extension, which brings in the exporters, the importers of Iraqi oil, which is the European Union, among other states.

And Claudia, reacting to this movement on the market, this, this oil shock, really, many countries have now started coordinated efforts to release strategic oil reserves.

Is that going to do anything to mitigate this crisis?

Well, not really, because now this, this release of the oil reserves is too early, I would say, because right now it cannot really help.

We do not have a shortage right now, as Rick said.

We will, we might get a shortage in the future, but

it really depends on how long this, this war will take.

Because right now there is flexibility in the market and the prices go up.

But there will be a reaction also by demand, for example, in many countries.

And other oil exporters can also react on this.

But the oil, the oil shortage is not there yet.

So we don't need this oil reserve right now.

It could, I mean, bring down the shock a little bit on the market, but

it's, I really doubt that it's, it has a long standing effect on the prices.

I think it's, it's really a short term effect which yeah, brings.

I mean, we have oil crisis and we need to stand with this.

I mean, those 400 million barrels that will be released basically cover for 20 days of the oil usually transported through the Strait of Hormuz.

So if it takes longer than 20 days, this war that we'll have, then, you know, these reserves will be spent and the prices will go up again.

So the question really is whether this war will be ended in 20 days.

And as Markus Bickel said, that's a decision that Iran takes, not Trump.

The Asian countries are more affected than Europeans, for example, because the Strait of Hormuz transports a lot of oil and gas for the Asian market.

And if there's a lack of oil and gas, they can substitute it a little bit by other compensation options by oil exporters, but

And that brings a lot of problems for, especially for the Asian countries.

But here we don't have a shortage yet, but it could happen in the future.

But right now, I think it's really too early to bring more supply in the market.

I think the price, when it starts rising, will, in a very cynical way, fix the problem in the sense that the Global south will not be able to buy any oil anymore.

The poor countries will be those that suffer first, and

then the oil will be redirected from the poor countries that can no longer afford these high prices to Asia.

Well, that the economy in the Global south will just break down and.

Do you have this problem with the oil, the other problem is that the foodstuffs will also get much more expensive.

Yeah, because a third of all fertilizers are being produced in the Middle east and they now also can no longer go through the straight of Hormuz.

And that is something that is not really realized.

How difficult and how dangerous it is is that now we know just now farmers are starting to seed their foodstuff, that just now the fertilizer is lacking.

Ulrike says, Marcos, that Donald Trump is going to look for a way out of this.

There is an acronym that's gained some popularity.

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The hidden winners of the Iran oil crisis | To The Point

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