Name: Syria’s dictator is gone — what’s next?
Uploaded: 2024-12-11T06:41:51.000Z
Duration: 9 min 3 s
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Hafez al-Assad took power in 1971, and ruled Syria with an iron fist.

Then his son Bashar took over, and survived a decades-long civil war, in part by using poison gas and barrel bombs to kill thousands of his own citizens.

Just 11 days ago, he controlled pieces of a failed state.

Then suddenly, rebels launched a surprise attack in Aleppo.

A few days later, they took Hama, then Homs.

Then late Saturday, as they closed in on the capital Damascus, Assad fled.

Syrians have endured decades of oppression under Assad, and millions have lived abroad in poverty as refugees.

So how did the Assad regime collapse so quickly?

The Syrian civil war has raged since protesters rose up against Assad in 2011.

But by 2020, it had become a so-called frozen conflict.

Five main groups had emerged, but fighting between them had died down.

A coalition of anti-government rebels controlled a pocket of territory in the north and parts of the south.

In the southeast, remnants of the terrorist group ISIS remained.

But otherwise, Assad's government controlled the rest.

In reality, he was completely reliant on two allies.

At the height of the civil war, Iran had directed several militias to fight for Assad.

The most powerful, Hezbollah, remained in Syria to protect him.

Russia helped, too, by conducting airstrikes on the rebels and maintaining several military bases.

Assad did have an army, but let it grow corrupt and weak.

Without Iran and Russia, he had little to keep him in power.

And in 2023, an event would start a chain reaction that would lead to his downfall.

On October 7th, an Iranian-backed militia, Hamas, attacked Israel.

Israel responded not only against Hamas, but also against Iranian-backed militias in Syria, Hezbollah, and even Iran itself, weakening the whole network.

And Russia was distracted, too, having committed most of its military to its invasion of Ukraine.

This gave the rebels in Syria an opportunity to test Assad's forces in Aleppo.

Celebrating their victory, rebel fighters are in the streets of Aleppo.

The Syrian government's clearly abandoned both weapons and ammunition in a hurry.

This lightning advance poses the biggest challenge to President Assad in many years.

As rebels raced towards Damascus, neither Russia nor Iran were eager to get involved.

Assad was on his own, and his troops knew it.

Here are some of them reportedly changing out of their military uniforms and fleeing.

As his army melted away, Assad went to the airport, where he and his family boarded a plane and fled to Moscow, ending one of the most oppressive regimes in the world.

Now several different groups want to replace him.

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This is Abu Mohammed al-Jilani, arriving in Damascus on Sunday.

He leads Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the rebel group that led the uprising and who are in the best position to take power.

When Syria's civil war started, Jilani helped form a group called Jabhat al-Nusra.

They were Islamist extremists who aimed to turn Syria into an Islamist caliphate.

Jilani initially allied with other extremist groups, Al-Qaeda and its ally ISIS.

Then in 2016, he formed a new group, which he claimed was not connected to Al-Qaeda.

A year later, he merged with other allegedly moderate groups to form HTS.

Today it calls itself an independent entity that follows no organization or party, Al-Qaeda or others.

But the U.S. regards it as a foreign terrorist organization that maintains contact with Al-Qaeda leadership.

A week ago, CNN asked Jilani in this interview what his group stood for.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is one of the factions in the region.

Now we're talking about a larger project.

No one has the right to erase another group.

There must be a legal framework that protects and ensures the rights of all.

He said publicly he wants to protect Syria's minorities, like Christians and Kurds.

But even if Jilani controls the capital, he'll have a hard time controlling the whole country.

In the north, a coalition of rebel groups called the Syrian National Army have different ideologies.

Some are aligned with Turkey's government, while others still want to establish an Islamic state governed by Sharia law.

Additionally, the Kurdish-led groups in the north won't want to give up their autonomy.

The Kurds are an ethnic group that suffered for decades under Syria's government and value their territory as a safe haven.

Many Alawites, another sect, supported Assad and may not accept rule by the rebels.

And ISIS could take advantage of the chaos to try and regain strength.

Elements of Assad's regime also remain, but some appear to be open-minded.

His former prime minister says he's ready to hand over the government to rebels and work with them to form a new one.

As these groups jockey for power, they will also have to deal with influence from outsiders.

Turkey gains the most from Assad's downfall.

It's hosting over 3 million Syrian refugees, and a friendly Syria will allow it to send them home.

In addition, the militias Turkey backs will give it influence, and are more free to attack the Kurdish groups, which Turkey considers terrorists.

Even as Assad fled, reports emerged of Turkish-backed militias attacking Kurdish towns.

Without Assad, it can't count on Syria to be a buffer between it and Israel, and it's cut off from its most important ally, Hezbollah.

If we can establish in a peaceful relations with the new forces emerging in Syria, that's our desire.

But if we do not, we'll do whatever it takes to defend the state of Israel.

Israel's deployed troops in southern Syria, and claims to have used airstrikes to hit weapons facilities.

It opposed Assad, but will not want an Islamist regime that's even more hostile to replace him.