Name: The most likely paths to electoral victory for Trump and Harris
Uploaded: 2024-11-04T04:01:29.000Z
Duration: 8 min 36 s
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CNN Political Director David Chalian is over at the Magic Wall for us to break down which states Trump and Harris need to win the White House.

The blue states are in Harris' column for the purpose of this exercise.

And we've got seven remaining yellow toss-up battleground states.

And as you know, those battleground states are razor-thin.

Look, these are our poll-a-polls in the battleground states.

No clear leader in any of them, in any of these battleground states.

So what is the path to victory for each candidate?

Well, the Harris campaign will say that their best, most direct path to 270 electoral votes is through the blue wall.

If she were to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, she'd be at 270 electoral votes and the next president.

But what if Donald Trump repeats his 2016 victory in Pennsylvania?

Then Harris drops down to 251, and she has to go hunting in the Sun Belt to find some more votes.

Certainly, if she were able to flip North Carolina from red to blue this time, that would get her knocking on the door to 270.

And then maybe Nevada behaves like it has for Democrats in recent cycles, and that would put Harris over the top in that scenario.

And Donald Trump's most direct path is to hang on to North Carolina.

That is the state he won by the narrowest margin four years ago.

In fact, it's the only state he won of the seven battleground states.

You'll recall he famously lost it by just fewer than 12,000 votes.

So let's say that ends up back in his column.

And let's say he does get that Pennsylvania victory repeated from 2016.

He doesn't need any of the rest of the battleground states.

But what if Harris does pull it out in Pennsylvania?

Then where does Donald Trump go for the next 19 electoral votes?

Well, even if he were to win Nevada and Arizona out West, that still would not get him to 270.

He would need at least one of the other remaining so-called blue wall states such as Michigan.

And that would do the trick and get him over the top at 283.

You know, and John, you know, it's those individual groups, whether you're talking about Arab Americans in Michigan or Jewish voters or Puerto Rican voters in Pennsylvania.

You know, everyone's talking about such specific groups because we keep hearing about how this is one of the tightest races in history.

The data tell us it is the closest race in the 10.

There's never been one this close, according to the numbers.

So you should prepare yourself for any possibility of outcomes, a split back and forth between the states.

Or you could prepare yourself that one candidate does have late momentum and runs up most of the battleground states.

Either one of those scenarios, a sort of a split decision, a boxing match or somebody sweeping most of them is possible.

Just want to stretch this out a little bit so people can see it more clearly at home.

There were some New York Times data out today.

There are some hints of maybe a little bit of Harris momentum in there.

The Sunday before the election, I always lapse back into caution mode.

And let's look at the average of the polls.

An actual tie in, of course, battleground Pennsylvania.

So let me just shrink this down and take it off to the side a little bit and put it down here and then we'll do this one.

So the Trump campaign say we're ahead a little bit.

I would say then that means who turns out it's going to affect that.

Again, Trump consistently has had a tiny lead in Arizona.

Again, certainly advantage Trump by the numbers, but within reach for the vice president.