Name: North Korean troops deployed to Russia's Kursk region, Nato says | BBC News
Uploaded: 2024-10-29T11:26:14.000Z
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Now, NATO's Secretary General Mark Rutter has confirmed today that North Korean troops have been sent to Russia's front line with Ukraine in the Kursk region, which Ukrainian forces grabbed in a surprise summer offensive.

Adverbs of degree

Mark Rutter described the development as a threat to both Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic security and also a sign that Russia's President Vladimir Putin is desperate. Just in the last half hour, the U.S.

Pentagon says Ukraine would not see any new restrictions on the use of U.S. weapons against North Korean forces should they enter the fight against Ukrainian forces.

Washington estimates that 10,000 North Korean troops have been deployed to eastern Russia. Let's talk live on the program with George Barros, the Russia and geospatial intelligence team lead at the Institute for the Study of War based in Washington. George, welcome here to the program.

First of all, how significant is this move in this war by North Korea? Thank you for having me, Matthew.

So in terms of the battlefield tactics, the actual combat power that these 10,000 or so North Koreans are going to provide the Russians, not actually that significant. 10,000 forces is just a very small number.

The Russians suffer about 30,000 troops killed and wounded per month.

This is one third of a month's worth of losses, if it's just this.

The other issue is I'm very skeptical of North Korean forces' combat effectiveness.

The North Korean military hasn't actually had any real combat experience in real fought wars for over 50 years at this point.

So we're going to be seeing our North Korean units deploying to the front lines to operate with Russian units.

In fact, that might create some seams where more experienced and on the arm-to-arm with the North Koreans, and that could create some opportunities for the Ukrainians to exploit vulnerabilities where those command seams exist. In terms of force generation, it is much more significant.

It tells us a lot about the Kremlin's limitations on its willingness to mobilize its people.

Russia has a lot of people, but Putin remains politically unwilling to mobilize the people that live in Moscow and, say, Petersburg, and rather he'd some alternative pipeline to potentially get North Koreans to fight in their stead. You said that you didn't think it would make that much difference on the battlefield itself.

Tell me a little more about the training, the equipment that these troops are likely to have. Sure.

So the forces that have been sent come from North Korea's 11th Army Corps, which is North Korean Special Forces.

Within the table of organization and equipment within there, you have a variety of airborne brigades and light infantry brigades.

These are going to be primarily light foot infantry.

They might be given some mechanized support, but these are not heavy tank units.

These are not heavy mechanized units or anything like that.

We've not observed any indication that the North Koreans have brought a whole lot of equipment with them.

The combat footage or the training footage that we saw of the North Koreans in Eastern Russia that was published a week ago just showed light infantry.

So if anything, it seems like they're getting prepared to have light infantry assaults, not with a whole lot of vehicle support. We heard what Mark Rutter was saying, that in one sense it's worrying, but in another sense, it's a sign of Putin's desperation.

What are your thoughts on that and the state of the Russian economy, their capacity to produce the armaments they need, the soldiers, the numbers they need? Absolutely.

So the Russian Federation is not the Soviet Union.

Russia has a finite number of people that it can either choose to put into industry in the civilian sector or into the frontline in Ukraine.

As of last year, the Russians had a labor deficit of about 5 million workers, which is huge.

And right now, the Russian government has been putting out tremendous financial incentives to Russians to go sign up and work in the Russian military.

For example, the Russian government now offers up to 2 million rubles for a one-time signing bonus, when the average Russian's annual salary is around 1.2 million rubles.

And right now, firms in Russia are struggling to be able to meet this overinflated Russian state incentives to go fight in the military.

He's going to have to probably, within the next 16 months or so, make a hard decision about whether or not to call another round of mobilization.

And to what extent is he prepared to further degrade the efficiency of his domestic economy at the expense of pulling up the war?

And I think in terms of the Russian desperation, look, this batch of 10,000 North Korean soldiers, they're not going to make a big difference if this is the single batch.

But if this becomes a robust pipeline through which the Russians can get 15,000 or 20,000 troops per month, that would take care of up to a third or two thirds of Russia's losses and be a substantial way to keep the Russians fighting this war for a long time. George, great to talk to you.

 Thanks so much for joining us on today's Verified Live.

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North Korean troops deployed to Russia's Kursk region, Nato says | BBC News

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