Name: Allan Lichtman: RFK Jr. endorsement will harm Trump’s campaign | Morning in America
Uploaded: 2024-08-25T22:18:17.000Z
Duration: 5 min 18 s
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So one of your keys is the influence of a foreign war.

Now, with the continuing fighting happening in the Middle East, how does that influence your keys and, of course, voters' minds in voters' minds?

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You know, normally, foreign policy doesn't influence voters because they don't follow the day to day affairs of what's going on abroad.

But big, splashy failures and big, splashy successes do influence voters among one of my many 13 keys.

And what's going on in the Middle East and in Ukraine is extremely important because I have a foreign policy success and foreign policy failure key, both of which are still uncertain, depending on the vicissitudes of war.

You know, I'm often asked when Biden was running, what did Biden have to do to win this election?

The most important thing Democrats could do right now, because they're the incumbent party, is somehow, you know, broker a ceasefire and hostage release deal in the Middle East.

I know it's a long shot, but that's what they should be focusing on.

Now to Robert Kennedy Jr.'s endorsement of Trump on Friday.

I talked to you before the endorsement became official.

You said that that does not influence your 13 keys, RFK's endorsement.

Yeah, well, I have one key on third party, which was already fading away.

Look, people have said, oh, my gosh, RFK Jr.'s got five percent in some of the swing states.

That's completely misleading because third party candidates, when it actually comes to voting, typically get a half or less of their top poll numbers.

So you're talking about maybe two percent, not five percent.

And by no means is that two percent just going to be delivered to Donald Trump.

on board simply gives Democrats more ammunition for the notion that the Republican campaign is weird.

Instead of, you know, two weirdos, they now have three.

Instead of weird square, they have weird cube.

Moreover, his stance on being an anti-vaxxer is anathema to the suburban women who will likely decide this election.

70 percent of Americans are against his stance and probably for suburban women, it's much larger.

So any tiny, miniscule turnover from RFK Jr.

to Donald Trump is likely to be far washed away by the revulsion of suburban women against RFK's signature campaign approach, which is that his anti-vaccine stance, which could threaten the health of millions of American children.

Now, Alan, you know, as well as I do, this race between Harris and Trump, it's close.

It's in within it's within the margin of error.

However, with your methodology, does this race seem neck and neck to you?

Well, I haven't made a call yet, but it's coming soon, right after Labor Day.

I have said a lot would have to go wrong for the Democrats to lose and forget the polls and the pundits.

You know, they're talking off the top of their head.

It's fun, but it has no scientific basis.

And polls are snapshots, ephemeral snapshots.

And the error margin is far greater than the plus and minus three percent that they tell you. That's just statistical error.

Add on, they don't know who's going to vote.

Poll respondents could lie or change their mind.

That's why I tell everyone, keep your eye on the big picture as gauged by the keys to the White House, which look at the strength and performance of the White House party.

And within a couple of weeks, I will reveal to the nation my final prediction, which has been right since 1984.

I know that I would not bet against you, Alan.

I have to ask, though, you said you're going to make the prediction after Labor Day.

You've told me that numerous times because I try to get it out of you.

What do you think is going to happen between then and now?

What are you looking for to make that prediction?

Well, you know, the school year is starting.

So the biggest thing I'm looking at, you know, is there going to be a huge outpouring of social unrest?

I don't expect it, but I'm looking at it.

And of course, while it may be unlikely to happen in the next couple of weeks, I am looking at what's going on with the ceasefire negotiations with the and in Ukraine, with the incursion of the Ukrainians into Russia.

It's a lot of fluidity in America and in the world.

And that's what counts, not campaign speeches, ad fundraising and dirty tricks.

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