Name: Who's Better for Banks: Biden or Trump?
Uploaded: 2024-07-19T06:27:40.000Z
Duration: 4 min 58 s
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Ken Leon research director over at CFR a research joins us now.

Adverbs of degree

That feels very binary for some of these big banks.

And of course we've seen rotation in the market today and financials have been benefiting really for the last few weeks.

And they're going lockstep with the S&P 500.

I think bank analysts are always toggling between the large global banks and regional banks.

And we're seeing good performance from both.

But I think overall when you look out to the next six to 12 months and we'll talk about the election we certainly favor those banks with a higher weighting to the capital markets and investment banking.

And that would be Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.

We see more challenges and perhaps a bit of a slowdown and rate compression in the Bank of America or really even Wells Fargo.

I would think I disagree with Bloomberg's conclusion.

Jay Powell at the Basel 3 had a reference to it.

But at the end of the day we're not going to see the risk of 15 to 20 percent capital bill.

We think some implementation maybe next year.

But but that we're going to take that risk off the table.

So basically the capital rules they're going to happen.

But what about the deregulation part of a potential President Trump White House in terms of now is M&A in the space going to become a little easier particularly among the regionals.

Blackstone reports tomorrow KKR the top eight.

And what we've seen so far we're kind of from the banking underwriting and M&A.

So we saw good results high percentage year over year gains for all the banks.

But then looking ahead this is important.

The financial sponsors which are the old industry have about over a trillion dollars of equity investments that have to be monetized.

It's very hard for them on new flagship funds to get new money from limited partners if they can't go through this seven year cycle of selling out these investments.

So that's going to be a huge momentum obviously for them.

But it's going to benefit certainly Goldman Morgan Stanley and other large banks.

So are they still taking on that risk and are they willing to.

I should say you're referring to what specific risk with regards to helping with regards to the private capital deals and the idea of their involvement in that.

First they play the role as an intermediary or agent to execute those unless they're going to backstop you know any equity IPO you know with their balance sheet but probably less likely.

Additionally if you're listening to David Solomon Goldman Sachs they are becoming privately equity like but not using their balance sheet.

So it's very interesting to see that when we look at where are the opportunities whether it's private credit in this case private equity which helps M&A and equity underwriting for the next 12 months.

But unfortunately not all banks will benefit from this.

And that's why it's our goal to pay attention to the capital markets.

I am curious just about the general structure of the traditional banking industry coming out of that regional banking crisis last year.

There was a lot of talk about consolidation not just amongst amongst the tiny banks but even amongst some of those super regionals.

I think that kind of died down that conversation died down a little bit.

But when you talk to executives they still say that's still in play.

And you know from our perspective given that there's additional rules if you're over 100 billion you know.

There's a lot of Congress persons who like having those small banks that play an important role in the U.S. economy.

And certainly if there's M&A you know it's regional banks.

 But I think for institutional investors if you're making allocations in the financial sector and it happens to be part of the banks you're going to be focusing on the U.S. global banks mostly.

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Who's Better for Banks: Biden or Trump?

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