Name: What These Three Scenarios in Iowa Reveal About 2024's GOP Primary | WSJ
Uploaded: 2024-02-24T06:22:02.000Z
Duration: 3 min 58 s
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into the Iowa Republican caucuses look like,

But what's interesting is what's happening down here.

- You can write Aaron Zitner Wonk if you want.

- [Narrator] to explain what's really happening

in the first stop of the Republican primary.

- Well, the race in Iowa is largely about

It's gonna give us the first clues in actual votes,

to whether the Republican Party really is ready

First and most likely, Donald Trump dominates.

That would give us a lot of signals about

of Iowa's very popular Republican governor

and arguably the biggest evangelical leader in the state,

Nikki Haley, meanwhile, has been campaigning hard in Iowa

- If Donald Trump runs away with the race in Iowa,

that will tell us that even influential Republicans

don't have the juice to persuade Republican voters

but by less of a margin, and the second place

is kind of a tie between Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley.

That's also a good outcome for Donald Trump

around any individual contender against him

Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio split the non-Trump vote

and rack up the delegate count needed for the nomination.

And that's the one where a single candidate emerges

to give Donald Trump a real race throughout the primaries.

- [Narrator] If one candidate does well in Iowa,

it would signal to voters in other states and donors

Just like it did for Trump in 2016 or Romney in 2012,

Whoever wins Iowa usually doesn't become the nominee.

But there are some places that could give us clues

to what might be coming next in the primary process.

right around Des Moines and in the two university towns

They're upper income, they are more highly educated

and that means, they look a little bit more

like the state of New Hampshire, which votes next.

If Nikki Haley and Ron Desantis don't do well

in these areas that are suburban and university-heavy,

it's a signal that they might not be doing well

or DeSantis might want to stay in the race.

The numerous legal battles Trump is currently facing.

and all of a sudden Donald Trump isn't there

- [Narrator] Iowa hasn't been a kingmaker.

defining who the top candidates are going

and boosting the profile of those that do well.

if this primary will be over in one month or six.

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What These Three Scenarios in Iowa Reveal About 2024's GOP Primary | WSJ

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