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  • The Universe is incredibly big and seems full of potential for life, with billions of habitable

  • planets.

  • If an advanced civilization had the technology to travel between the stars, at just 0.1%

  • of the speed of light, It could colonize our galaxy in roughly 100 million years.

  • Which is not that long given the billions of years the milky way has existedso

  • in principle any spacefaring civilization should be able to spread rapidly over huge

  • sectors of the galaxy.

  • And yet we see nothing, hear nothing, the universe seems empty.

  • Devoid of others.

  • This is the Fermi Paradox, which we have discussed in more detail in other videos.

  • Confronted with the seemingly empty universe, humanity faces a dilemma.

  • We desperately want to know if we are alone in the Milky Way.

  • We want to call out and reveal ourselves to anyone watching but that could be the last

  • thing we ever do.

  • Because maybe the universe is not empty.

  • Maybe it's full of civilizations but they are hiding from each other.

  • Maybe the civilizations that attracted attention in the past were wiped away by invisible arrows.

  • This is the Dark Forest solution to the Fermi paradox.

  • The Way Of Life

  • The hunter awakes in his hiding place and carefully listens for suspicious noises from

  • the thick undergrowth before he gets up.

  • Another night has passed without incident.

  • The forest is dark and full of fog.

  • He considers calling out to others to end his loneliness but stops himself at the last

  • moment.

  • What if they are like him?

  • All living things seek to survive, secure resources and multiply.

  • Their greatest obstacle are other living things that share the same objective.

  • Competition between species favored the survival of beings with advantageous traits.

  • Our ancestors were inventive, competitive, expansionist and greedy for resources, which

  • led to them winning the competition for our planet.

  • Today, most other animals are so utterly at our mercy that we wipe out about a dozen species

  • a day, just as an unintentional byproduct of how we like to run things.

  • But humans are more than individuals.

  • From us cultures emerge, that also compete with each other.

  • Competitive and expansionary cultures spread faster and further and merge with, subdue

  • or destroy others.

  • If we look at our history it becomes clear: We are dangerous.

  • Not just to others but also to ourselves.

  • Our human nature has driven us to take over every corner of our planet and soon we will

  • look to the stars, both to expand our domain and ensure access to ever more resources.

  • And then we might stumble upon others trying to do the same thing.

  • It is likely that the competition of life also takes place on far away planets, so it

  • is logical to assume that an alien civilization that came to dominate their planet would be

  • in some regards similar to us.

  • But if they are similar to us, they, too, may be dangerous.

  • The Implication

  • As the hunter sneaks through the dark forest all alone he knows that there might be others

  • like him.

  • He can't know their intentions, if they are aggressive or not.

  • The hunter knows he would kill to ensure his own survival, so he has to assume that they

  • would too.

  • And it might be that if he stumbles upon another hunter, the one that shoots first survives.

  • None of this means that conflict is unavoidable.

  • So far the progress of the modern world seems to have made us more peaceful, not more violent.

  • Maybe this is true for other civilizations too, that eventually progress means less conflict,

  • not more.

  • Different alien civilizations also should vary from the mild and peaceful to the malevolent

  • and militaristic.

  • The existential problem we are facing is that when we meet others between the stars, we

  • have no way of telling who is peaceful or aggressive and what their true intentions

  • are.

  • Similarly, they might not understand or trust our intentions even if we tell them that we

  • are peaceful.

  • On top of that, if we did discover another civilization, and they discovered us, the

  • light years between us would mean years of communication delay.

  • Both sides would be in a state of uncertainty, wondering if the wisest move is to just attack,

  • because there's another serious issue: technological explosions and first strike advantage.

  • We do not know where the limits of technology are, but we do know how much technological

  • progress matters in war.

  • A few hundred or thousand years can turn conflict with uncertain results into a one sided massacre.

  • Caesar's legions would stand no chance against Napoleon's army with their cannons and muskets.

  • Which would be eradicated by artillery from the first world war.

  • Which would not stand a chance against today's drones and guided missiles.

  • So the power level of different civilizations may vary massively and even if not, between

  • the time it takes us to detect another civilization and us sayinghiwe might already be

  • hopelessly behind on the tech tree.

  • Which is bad enough, but the nature of interstellar conflict makes this worse.

  • If your opponent is light years away, sending an invasion fleet takes so long that by the

  • time it arrives it might be hopelessly obsolete.

  • So, war between civilizations might be just about eliminating the other to remove an existential

  • threat to yourself.

  • Someone else who might be so scared of you that they attack the first chance they get.

  • In this environment, the only way to guarantee a win is to strike with such force and speed

  • that the target has no chance of survival or time to counter-attack or escape to seek

  • revenge later.

  • The stakes are the highest possible with no room for error.

  • If we assume that the majority of civilizations live on planets that leaves them pretty vulnerable

  • all you need to do is throw something massive at a planet to make it uninhabitable.

  • So the ultimate interplanetary annihilation weapon is probably something like a Relativistic

  • Kill Vehicle – a missile shot at a planet at a significant fraction of the speed of

  • light.

  • For example, a missile the size of a person going 95% the speed of light has as much energy

  • as all nuclear bombs on earth.

  • If you shot a few dozen at the civilization you wanted to wipe out, success would be fairly

  • certaineven a single hit would suffice.

  • This is not that absurd of an idea – a civilization only slightly above us on the Kardashev scale

  • would have enough energy to send multiple strikes against every planet it suspects of

  • harboring life.

  • What makes these weapons so sinister is how much they favor a first strike, since they

  • would be so fast that it might be impossible to protect yourself effectively against them

  • once they're launched.

  • Conflict between civilizations may not be lengthy affairs but rapid winner takes all

  • situations, where the first one to shoot wins.

  • This makes any civilization an existential threat to any other.

  • And if every civilization is an existential threat to every other, there may be only two

  • kinds of civilizations out there: quiet ones and dead ones.

  • So what should we do?

  • So, should we worry?

  • It is unlikely that anybody has noticed humanity yet.

  • The radio signals we've transmitted in the last 100 years traveled a relatively tiny

  • distance and have long decayed into unreadable noise.

  • At our technological stage, if we don't actively try to get noticed and if nobody

  • specifically looks at our pretty unremarkable solar system, we'll stay hidden.

  • But one day we will venture into space in a serious way and need to consider these kinds

  • of questions again.

  • We don't know if there are others or if we are going through the forest alone.

  • But we have no way of knowing for sure.

  • For the time being, it seems the best we can do is to carefully listen.

  • And even if we see others step into a clearing and make themselves known, we should not reply

  • right away but carefully watch them from the undergrowth.

  • Perhaps we are also thinking about this all wrong by allowing our primitive brain, that

  • evolved in the context of the gruesome competition of life, to conjure fears of predatory aliens

  • all around us.

  • Maybe the fact that we are looking at the universe like this is a sign that we are not

  • grown up yet as a species.

  • There could be a friendly, welcoming community of alien civilizations waiting to hear from

  • us when we are ready.

  • As for now, the good news is there is actually little we need to do.

  • We just need to be thoughtful about the signals we send out into the galaxy, we need to watch

  • the sky and learn more about our galaxy, our forest.

  • Because whatever the nature of our forest is, full of dangers or friends, or nobody

  • at all, only careful observation can tell.

  • So let's do that.

  • At last the hunter reaches a clearing and finds a comfortable position.

  • Slowly the sun melts the fog away, lost in thought he admires the vegetation until suddenly

  • he is eye to eye with another hunter, frozen in terror just like himself.

  • His mind is racing, considering all the different options.

  • The hunter takes a deep breath and makes a decision.

  • Maybe the only way out of the dark forest is to step into the clearing together.

  • And with this hopeful picture, we say goodbye to the year 12021 of the Human Era.

  • It was a wild year to say the least, still much more fun than 12020.

  • Kurzgesagt had its most successful month ever and published a book.

  • We tried a lot of new techniques and really got into blender and Cinema4D, hiding more

  • and more 3D in our videos.

  • We have so many ideas for next year and big and ambitious plans that we can't wait to

  • share with youand all of this was and is possible because of your direct support

  • thank you so much.

  • Kurzgesagt only works because of you.

  • So in tune with the end of the year we designed a few products that will help you to visualize

  • your place in the universe.

  • Our very shinyThe Night Sky'' Poster shows you the little piece of space we can see from

  • Earth with our own eyes, or travel further out with our Stellar Zoom Collection that

  • depicts our home in space from an increasing distance.

  • Or dream with our Space themed notebooks, scenic posters and pins.

  • We design and produce every single product with great care.

  • Getting something from our shop is the best way to support kurzgesagt.

  • We hope you have a wonderful end of the year and that 12022 is more fun and less exciting

  • than the last two years.

  • Thank you for watching.

The Universe is incredibly big and seems full of potential for life, with billions of habitable

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