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  • Yeah, I was actually talking to a couple ex Wall Street traders this week, one of them being dan Morehead of Pantera capital and and they both said they both said a few things, but we're quite interesting first of all, dan was the first to say that the guy that sat next to me at Goldman Sachs was, you know, steve Nugent who became the Treasury Secretary and so do not assume that Wall Street and the Treasury are a revolving door is naive.

  • He also or another guest mentioned that.

  • The truth is if you're a fund manager, you know, and you see Bitcoin becoming an asset that's appreciating and you don't get to get in on it, then you're competing fund manager is going to get on it and you're out of a job.

  • And so there seems to be real wealth getting in on this.

  • If Jpmorgan's putting funds in there and and client assets and Goldman Sachs is those same guys at the Fed are probably not going to shut the door on them Because it is part of their business.

  • And so you have to remember that the other day is all about about fear and greed.

  • You know, these funds potentially want in because they need to beat the S&P 500, right?

  • They need to beat the returns.

  • And sometimes it is that simple and sometimes it's not that simple scott, but I think some people need to realize sometimes it is that simple, some great points you just made there and things I talked about all the time.

  • One is that paul Tudor jones and Stanley Druckenmiller and Bill Miller and all these billionaires who are now proponents for Bitcoin, don't make that decision without knowing it's not going to get banned.

  • I'm sorry, these guys are not going all in, you know, in the media on Bitcoin without calling someone first to make sure that they're not going to be on the wrong side of regulation.

  • So that's one and you touched on that.

  • The other is a very interesting shift that I think we've seen in the past two years that you also just mentioned, which is, I think there was huge reputational risk to supporting Bitcoin or Cryptocurrency in the board room until last year.

  • I think even if you loved it as a risk manager as a portfolio manager, you were going to be nuts if you threw it out on the table and said, I want exposure to this, right?

  • You didn't want to be first.

  • I think that's flipped.

  • As you've said.

  • I think now there's reputational risk to not understanding the asset or at least having a plan.

  • So I think even the people we haven't seen coming yet, the endowments, pension sovereign wealth funds who, by the way, they come with an E.

  • T.

  • F.

  • Right there.

  • Risk managers have been doing diligence on this for two years there, waiting for an instrument to be able to gain exposure and can't right now.

  • So if they're coming in, maybe that's the catalyst, but all that aside now your clients are asking your, you know, the, everyone's asking about it, everyone wants exposure.

  • JPMorgan Jamie Dimon said that it's the worst, basically the worst asset that's ever been created.

  • If anyone in his firm even trades it on their own time, he's firing them and now JP morgan everyday filing for a new TTF, starting a new fund, wealthy clients can gain access because he has to, he hates it, but he has to Right.

  • And so I think that that's exactly right.

  • Is that now the reputational risk is on the other side and you have to open the doors, you're gonna get left behind.

  • Yeah.

  • When your customers are asking, I mean, you know, know exactly if you tell them no, someone else will tell them yes.

  • And, and uh, that's the funny thing.

  • It ultimately comes down to demand.

  • This is an asset that's now proven itself.

  • You know, and like you said, whether it's maybe even as much as 18 months ago, you couldn't publicly come out.

  • There were no public ceos doing it.

  • I mean, Michael Sailor really took the jump on that.

  • Obviously Ellen followed coin based today, you know, when will we see before?

  • End of year before amazon and google and Apple put some, maybe, maybe not, but it seems to be trending that way and now it's probably not going to stop and like you said, somebody made a phone call and if somebody shuts them down in the Fed, there'll be a phone call made to the Fed and maybe there'll be someone out of a job.

  • I mean I'm not saying it's like that, but I am saying that it's closer than you think and um, and so I think this market is moving there.

  • We do see the news cycles, the regulation.

  • Um, just to finish up on the news and then I want to start asking about a couple of coins based on the news being a lagging indicator in your opinion.

  • Should people ignore it?

  • Also, people can't ignore it's got and it gets in their heads sometimes.

  • And you always think the infrastructure bill in china and el Salvador and it has a way of getting in your head more than even a price level on a chart.

  • Yeah.

  • And I think all those things are good news, right?

  • Even.

  • And that's the thing, it depends on the interpretation where you're getting it.

  • So maybe and this is probably good advice in general.

  • Don't just take their word for it to a bit of research on your own.

  • D Y O R.

  • As we say, do your own research.

  • See if what they're talking about is true china you just mentioned is the is the best example the most bearish case that most people made for Bitcoin until a few months ago was that china dominated and between mining and between control was centralized in china, right?

  • China could dominate the network.

  • They can control it, they could attack the network most mining.

  • So then they announce a ban on mining miners start to leave china.

  • And apparently that becomes the bad news is that the network is going to be more decentralized, it's going to be cleaner, but china is banning it, we better sell it right?

  • So they're flip there again, it's two sides of the same coin, of the same narrative.

  • Bitcoin leaving china is good news.

  • Anything leaving china is good news.

  • Right?

  • In general?

  • You know they have a very closed economy, they ban google, they banned facebook, they would have banned the internet if they could, you know, and they create their own versions, they're creating a central bank digital currency in china, their own digital currency.

  • But so again you read the news.

  • If you're reading it when price was on the way down this terrible news about china.

Yeah, I was actually talking to a couple ex Wall Street traders this week, one of them being dan Morehead of Pantera capital and and they both said they both said a few things, but we're quite interesting first of all, dan was the first to say that the guy that sat next to me at Goldman Sachs was, you know, steve Nugent who became the Treasury Secretary and so do not assume that Wall Street and the Treasury are a revolving door is naive.

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Scott Melker On Why Bitcoin Leaving China Is Good News ?

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    林宜悉 posted on 2021/09/08
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